We kept rolling last week thanks to AJ Brown (and a hot tip from The Ringer’s Ben Solak, who is great at what he does and certainly deserves a follow). Brown squeaking past his over and crushing his “longest reception” number turned a good week into a banger and kept us rolling into the final four weeks of the regular season.
Again, this is where I warn you a plus-67 percent hit rate cannot last. There’s value in finding rising players oddsmakers haven’t quite caught up with yet, but the September lines of attainable overs and unreseasonable lines are long gone. This exercise gets tougher as data accumulates. After 13 games per team, we’ve got a fine pile of numbers to sort through — and make the kind of lines that help sportsbooks across the globe profitable.
That said, here are Week 15’s official plays in bold.
Matt Ryan UNDER 254.5 passing yards. I understand the Vikings’ pass defense is … not great. But Ryan hasn’t come within 10 yards of this total in any of his last five games, including four with Jeff Saturday as his coach. He’s played some good passing defenses in that stretch, but also the Raiders (32nd in pass defense DVOA) and Titans (28th).
J.K Dobbins OVER 47.5 rushing yards. Dobbins made his presence felt in a big way in his return in Week 14, running for 120 yards on 15 carries. He’s got another week of conditioning under his belt and now gets the league’s 30th-ranked rushing defense. I look forward to this bet falling apart when he gets out-snapped by Gus Edwards in John Harbaugh’s platoon of talented, yet fantasy-untrustable running backs.
Gus Edwards OVER 36.5 rushing yards. At least one of these Ravens RB props will hit — and there’s a reasonable chance they both do, given the state of Cleveland’s run defense and Baltimore’s passing offense.
Jonathan Taylor OVER 16.5 receiving yards. The Vikings give up the fifth-most receiving yards to tailbacks and an average of 7.8 yards per catch. Taylor’s had four targets and three receptions in each of his last three games.
Dawson Knox OVER 26.5 receiving yards. It was a wintery mix in Buffalo last week and Knox led the Bills in targets, receptions and receiving yards. The forecast for Saturday night? 25 degrees, light wind and between one and three inches of snow. On top of that, the Dolphins allow more receptions to opposing tight ends than anyone but the Arizona Cardinals. Pair this up with OVER 2.5 catches.
Chris Olave OVER 59.5 receiving yards. He’s hit this total in four of his last five games. Now he gets Atlanta’s 29th-ranked pass defense.
Last week: 5-2 (.714)
Season to date: 64-31 (.674)
My official leans (not plays) for Week 15
- Mark Andrews UNDER 53.5 receiving yards. Andrews could smoke this total, but the Browns have been stingy against opposing tight ends; their 46 TE receptions allowed is tied for lowest in the NFL.
- Austin Ekeler UNDER 40.5 rushing yards. He’s only hit this total in five games this season. Now he gets the Titans and their top-ranked rush defense (3.6 yards allowed per carry).
- Justin Fields OVER 68.5 rushing yards. He’s hit this in six of his last seven games and now gets an Eagles defense that’s giving up 6.8 yards per carry to opposing quarterbacks.
Last week: 2-2 (.500)
Season to date: 36-9 (.800)
