Maybe the Bears look back in two weeks and lament beating the Cardinals.
They probably won’t.
With two games to play, the Bears remain the overwhelming favorite to draft first overall, thanks to the Panthers having the worst record in the NFL. The Patriots’ win in Denver on Sunday night makes it a two-team race to the bottom, though — between the 2-13 Panthers and 3-12 Cardinals.
The Bears have a 95.9% chance of landing the No. 1 pick, while the Cardinals sit at 3.4%, per ESPN’s simulations.
A Cardinals win at Soldier Field would have put two games between the Panthers and the next-closest team and all-but-locked up the No. 1 pick for the Bears. That would have been good news for the Bears in the big picture, but try telling that to a coach and quarterback who need a strong finish to the season to justify their jobs.
The Bears figure to get No. 1 anyway. One more Panthers loss — or a Cardinals win — could seal it Sunday. The tiebreaker goes to the team with the worse strength of schedule for all 17 games; with two weeks left to play, the Panthers have a .522 and the Cardinals a .561. That will change slightly with results of the next two weeks, but probably not significantly enough to give the tiebreaker to Arizona.
The Panthers play at the stumbling Jaguars on Sunday and then at home against the streaking Bucs, while the Cardinals go to Philadelphia and then host the Seahawks.
The Bears’ own draft pick fell from No. 5 to No. 8 in Week 16 and could slide even farther — every team between No. 8 and No. 15 has either six or seven wins. That feels familiar: every time the Bears have picked in the first round since 2018, the selection has come between eight and 11.
Elsewhere around the league:
• “Monday Night Football” touted the Ravens-49ers game as an opportunity to watch three MVP candidates. By the end of the Ravens’ dominant performance, there can be only one: quarterback Lamar Jackson, who’s led them to the best record in the NFL despite having no pass catcher with more than 752 receiving yards and only four with more than 325.
• Niners running back Christian McCaffrey would win had the award not devolved into “Best Quarterback” over the last 15 years or so. He leads the NFL in rushing yards and is third in rushing touchdowns. His 537 receiving yards and seven receiving touchdowns lead all running backs.
Since 2007, only one running back has won MVP; every other winner has played quarterback. The NFL should consider creating a Cy Young-like award for quarterbacks to give all the game’s great players at other positions — this year, that list includes Browns defensive end Myles Garrett, Dolphins receiver Tyreek Hill and McCaffrey — a legitimate argument for MVP.
• The Lions clinching the NFC North for the first time — their last divisional title came in the Central in 1993 — means that three different teams have won it in the past three years. The only one to not: the Bears.
Re-setting the power rankings after Week 16:
1. Ravens (12-3) — Destroying the 49ers at home is the best win anyone’s had all year.
2. 49ers (11-4) — Niners QBs threw five interceptions on Monday night.
3. Dolphins (11-4) — Tyreek Hill (9 catches, 99 yards) looks back to his old self.
4. Eagles (11-4) — After snapping a 3-game skid, they can take the NFC East by winning out.
5. Cowboys (10-5) — Dak Prescott will rue his fumble on first-and-goal at the 1.
6. Lions (11-4) — RB Jahmyr Gibbs has five TDs over the last four games.
7. Bills (9-6) — Beating the Pats on Sunday will all-but-clinch a playoff spot.
8. Chiefs (9-6) — They’ve lost 4 of 5 but are this high based on reputation alone.
9. Browns (10-5) — Amari Cooper’s 265 receiving yards were the most in the NFL this year.
10. Texans (8-7) — They need C.J. Stroud back from his concussion.
11. Rams (8-7) — Winning two games in five days has them staring down the playoffs.
12. Buccaneers (8-7) — They’ve won four in a row by a combined 39 points.
13. Bengals (8-7) — QB Jake Browning finally turned into a pumpkin, throwing 3 picks
14. Seahawks (8-7) — They can clinch the playoffs by winning out.
15. Jaguars (8-7) — The Jags haven’t won since Thanksgiving weekend.
16. Colts (8-7) — They’ll make the playoffs if they beat Raiders and Texans.
17. Steelers (8-7) — QB Mason Rudolph earned himself another start Sunday
18. Broncos (7-8) — They lost 5 of 6 to start the season — and 3 of 4 in December.
19. Saints (7-8) — Sunday’s game vs. the Bucs could decide the NFC South.
20. Vikings (7-8) — QB Nick Mullens threw four picks against the Lions.
21. Packers (7-8) — RB Aaron Jones became the first Packer with 100 yards rushing or receiving.
22. Raiders (7-8) — Aidan O’Connell didn’t complete a pass after the first quarter — in a win.
23. Falcons (7-8) —They scored a season-high 29 points against the Colts.
24. Jets (6-9) — They almost blew a 20-point third-quarter lead to the Commanders.
25. Bears (6-9) — Welcome back, Khalil Herbert (20 carries, 112 yards).
26. Chargers (5-10) — The New Coach Bounce kept them competitive with the Bills.
27. Titans (5-10) — After losing in OT two weeks ago, they gave the lead with 57 seconds left Sunday.
28. Patriots (4-11) — They’ve won as much in the last 20 days as they did all year.
29. Giants (5-10) — QB Tommy DeVito’s celebrity didn’t last two months.
30. Commanders (4-11) — Sam Howell, who once led the NFL in passing, was benched again.
31. Cardinals (3-12) — The Bears ran for 250 yards for the fourth time since 1998 against them.
32. Panthers (2-13) — They were a half-second shy of being able to try a game-tying FG.
