Here’s the problem and/or highlight of the 2023 NFL season. No one’s great.
Granted, there are several very good teams. But the one that looked elite, the San Francisco 49ers, came out in primetime on Monday night and got their doors blown off by the Baltimore Ravens. That leaves Baltimore to assume the mantle of “best team” (and Lamar Jackson to take up Brock Purdy’s spot atop the MVP ranks), but based on how this season has unfolded it won’t last. Baltimore, a team that already has losses to the flawed Indianapolis Colts and Pittsburgh Steelers, remains vulnerable in its quest to take down the AFC’s top seed.
Behind them lies a frustrating upper crust liable to be blown out by a less talented opponent any given week. We know this because the Detroit Lions, Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills and Philadelphia Eagles have each scraped the dizzying heights of Super Bowl contention and had that post-win bliss stomped out by garbage teams before they could stamp their place on the contenders’ list.
As a result, no one is trustable. Not even a Ravens team and its likely MVP quarterback who also happens to be 1-3 with a 68.3 passer rating in the postseason. Whether that’s a feature or a bug depends on how much predictability you like in your playoffs. But either way, it’s made our power rankings a total crapshoot where we’re forced to just sorta shrug and say “yeah, I *guess* the Cowboys are 2023’s fifth-best team.”
32
Carolina Panthers
Last week’s rank: 32
Was Week 16’s performance a badly needed proof of concept from Bryce Young, Franchise Quarterback? Or was it a dissertation on the dismal quality of the Green Bay Packers’ defense? The answer is … yes.
31
Arizona Cardinals
Last week’s rank: 30
The good news is Kyler Murray had his best game since returning from ACL surgery last week. The bad news is the Cardinals still got twirled off the dance floor by the Chicago Bears. Ah well, each loss gets them closer to adding Marvin Harrison Jr. to Murray’s passing attack.
30
Washington Commanders
Last week’s rank: 29
Sam Howell, Weeks 15 and 16: -34 expected points added (EPA), 17-48 passing, one touchdown, three interceptions, 3.3 yards per attempt
Jacoby Brissett, Weeks 15 and 16: 22.3 EPA, 18-23, three touchdowns, zero interceptions, 9.7 yards per attempt
The Commanders may be the funniest team in the NFL.
29
Los Angeles Chargers
Last week’s rank: 28
Los Angeles put up a hell of a fight despite the presence of Easton Stick at quarterback before ultimately succumbing to the Buffalo Bills. Everything about this team is just sort of a mess right now, but a returning Justin Herbert makes the Chargers one of the most appealing coaching destinations in the 2024 hiring cycle.
28
New England Patriots
Last week’s rank: 31
Since Week 14, Bailey Zappe’s 6.8 completion percentage over expected (CPOE, a measure of how many passes he completed vs. how many an average quarterback would be expected to) is second-best in the NFL. That’s led to two Patriots wins and seriously jeopardized New England’s plan to draft a new quarterback at the top of next spring’s draft. So even when things are going well for Bill Belichick, they’re going poorly.
27
Tennessee Titans
Last week’s rank: 25
Ryan Tannehill stepped back into the starting lineup and failed to boost his pending free agent stock, throwing for only 152 yards while being sacked six times in a loss to the Seattle Seahawks. That’s not a big deal in Nashville, however, as the Titans will be happy to thank him for his service and let him be on his way in 2024.
26
New York Giants
Last week’s rank: 24
Well, the Tommy DeVito thing was fun while it lasted. Hopefully he signed as many endorsement deals as he could. We should all remember our broken Italian satellite, soaring through the night sky and orbiting longer than anyone could have expected before crashing back to earth and being lost at sea.
25
Chicago Bears
Last week’s rank: 27
Montez Sweat was held without a sack or quarterback hit last week, but he’s been a transformative piece of the Chicago defense. Over the last six games, the Bears are 4-2 and their defense ranks second in the NFL when it comes to expected points added (EPA) per play.
24
New York Jets
Last week’s rank: 22
New York’s defense destroyed Sam Howell, then got picked apart by Jacoby Brissett while nearly blowing a 27-7 third quarter lead. Maybe that’s a symptom of fatigue in a long, trying season. Or maybe it’s pointing to a greater flaw that’ll need to be addressed this offseason.
23
Atlanta Falcons
Last week’s rank: 26
Taylor Heinicke was decent enough at quarterback, but if this team sneaks into the postseason it’ll be thanks to a defense that’s leveled up thanks, in large part, to the addition of Jessie Bates III in the secondary. He had two passes defensed and an interception vs. the Indianapolis Colts, marking the third time in four games the Falcons held an opponent to 10 points or fewer.
22
New Orleans Saints
Last week’s rank: 18
Mediocrity thrives in New Orleans, where everything is just sort of OK. Derek Carr? Steadily underwhelming. Alvin Kamara is embers of a burnt-out campfire, occasionally capable of burning you but mostly serving as a grim reminder energy is finite. Chris Olave’s pretty good, though.
21
Green Bay Packers
Last week’s rank: 20
Jordan Love has the capacity to be a top 10 quarterback. It may not matter if his defense continues to be a festering wound sucking the life out of the rest of the roster. Since Week 14 Green Bay has faced Tommy DeVito, Baker Mayfield and Bryce Young at quarterback. And despite that unintimidating lineup, they’d still fielded, by far, the league’s worst passing defense.
this is even more impressive when you consider the quarterbacks the Packers played in this stretch are:
Tommy DeVito
Baker Mayfield
Bryce Young pic.twitter.com/qnXbDVC5TX— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) December 26, 2023
20
Las Vegas Raiders
Last week’s rank: 23
The Raiders have a legitimate shot at making the playoffs despite the 3-5 start that proved, once again, Josh McDaniels is a Ponzi scheme. Antonio Pierce is making one heck of a case for the full-time job after Week 16’s upset win in Kansas City. He’s two winnable games away from a plus-.500 record, which is incredible when his quarterback is Aidan O’Connell.
19
Minnesota Vikings
Last week’s rank: 19
Minnesota has finally stalled out after losing Kirk Cousins for the season due to injury. Nick Mullens had multiple chances to upset the Detroit Lions and keep his team’s NFC North title hopes alive. His four interceptions, each on truly horrible throws not even Justin Jefferson could salvage, doomed the Vikings to fading Wild Card hopes.
18
Pittsburgh Steelers
Last week’s rank: 21
Mason Rudolph was fine, but George Pickens’ statement game after getting dragged for his lack of effort a week prior was the headliner in Pittsburgh’s blowout win over the Bengals. 115 of Rudolph’s 290 passing yards came from Pickens’ runs after the catch, which made Saturday an easy lift for the Steelers’ veteran third-string quarterback.
GEORGE PICKENS TOUCHDOWN AGAIN.
He can not be stopped tonight.
📺: #CINvsPIT on NBC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/yewPow3ekF pic.twitter.com/JbRic5KPmP— NFL (@NFL) December 23, 2023
17
Indianapolis Colts
Last week’s rank: 13
Week 16 showcased the upper boundary of the Gardner Minshew experience. He’s been fine — better than expected, really — as Anthony Richardson’s veteran replacement. But Indianapolis needed him to make plays in order to mount a rally against the Atlanta Falcons. He couldn’t, and the Colts wasted a big opportunity to make a splash in the AFC South race.
16
Denver Broncos
Last week’s rank: 16
This team didn’t deserve to make the playoffs and losing to the Patriots makes it a near certainly it won’t. The Broncos’ playoff odds fell to six percent after their Week 16 loss. Russell Wilson has been mostly forgettable in the team’s 1-3 run, suggesting next year’s reset won’t matter much if the veteran continues to underwhelm behind center.
15
Houston Texans
Last week’s rank: 10
Houston’s offense has predictably struggled without CJ Stroud, but the Texans remain in the playoff race because the rest of the AFC South is a sloppy mess. Even if the rookie can’t rally his troops, 2023 has been an unqualified success for a young team with a first year head coach that’s trending upward for the first time since Bill O’Brien was fired.
14
Jacksonville Jaguars
Last week’s rank: 14
Trevor Lawrence hasn’t been the same quarterback since spraining his ankle in Week 14 and entering the concussion protocol in Week 15. He’s been the league’s 30th-best quarterback in that stretch, per advanced stats, and that’s something Jacksonville has been unable to overcome. Fortunately for the Jags, the rest of the AFC South is butt, so he’s still got time to recover and set things right.
13
CIncinnati Bengals
Last week’s rank: 9
What Jake Browning had accomplished was unsustainable, but holy moly did he course correct against the Steelers. After ripping off three straight wins he put together a downright Blake Bortles-ian performance in Week 16, throwing for 335 yards but tossing three interceptions in a game he trailed from start to finish.
12
Seattle Seahawks
Last week’s rank: 15
Geno Smith stepped up with his playoff hopes hanging in the balance, leading the Seahawks 75 yards — almost all of which came through the air — in a game-winning touchdown drive to put away the Titans. Seattle may not have the juice for an extended postseason run, but this team has the talent to ruin someone else’s Super Bowl dreams along the way.
11
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Last week’s rank: 17
In the same stretch Trevor Lawrence has been a bottom-four quarterback Baker Mayfield has been the NFL’s most efficient passer. He was 2022’s *least* efficient passer, for reference. He’s added an extra zero to his paycheck as free agency looms.
10
Los Angeles Rams
Last week’s rank: 12
Los Angeles is 5-1 in its last six games and the only loss in that stretch came against the NFL’s best team in overtime. Over that stretch Matthew Stafford has 15 touchdown passes, two interceptions and a 107.7 passer rating. This team could be a nightmare once the playoff starts — or an inexperienced defense could wind up in over its head.
9
Cleveland Browns
Last week’s rank: 11
Who knew Joe Flacco was the difference between the Browns looking like a playoff team or falling into the chaff of a flawed AFC? The veteran quarterback hasn’t been great, but he takes acceptable risks that have paid off (and occasionally failed, like in his loss to the Rams) while solidifying Amari Cooper’s status as a stud wideout.
8
Kansas City Chiefs
Last week’s rank: 6
The Chiefs neglected to upgrade their receiving corps and it’s killed their passing game. Patrick Mahomes is suffering the worst season of his pro career and his average pass only goes 6.7 yards downfield — by far the lowest mark of his career and one of the five lowest depths among starting quarterbacks in 2023. Kansas City is fielding its best defense in years and will still likely have to win a pair of playoff games on the road to make it back to the Super Bowl.
7
Buffalo Bills
Last week’s rank: 7
Buffalo struggled an awful lot against a Chargers team without a head coach; if LA had a backup quarterback even slightly more competent than Easton Stick that would probably have been a deflating West Coast loss. Instead, the Bills got a comeback win, kept their path to the playoffs clear and gave everyone a reason not to trust Sean McDermott’s team in January.
6
Philadelphia Eagles
Last week’s rank: 8
Philly reset its cocky/distraught meter by giving up 22 second half points and nearly allowing Tyrod Taylor to engineer a massive comeback in eastern Pennsylvania. The Eagles’ defense is a massive concern, as its secondary has become a liability thanks to injury and aging stars. Fortunately, an occasionally dominant run game could be the kind of clock-killing asset that could overshadow all that.
5
Dallas Cowboys
Last week’s rank: 5
The Cowboys disappeared in stretches and once again proved incapable of beating a quality opponent on the road. Back-to-back losses have dulled the luster on Dak Prescott’s MVP campaign and, more concerningly, set their path to the Super Bowl 58 through a handful of rival stadiums.
4
Miami Dolphins
Last week’s rank: 4
Miami finally beat a team with a +.500 record, which is good. It was the Cowboys, who are incapable of beating anyone of note on the road, however, which dims the shine of that win. Still, the defense stood tall for three quarters and the Dolphins, if nothing else, gave us reason to believe they could win their first playoff game since 2000.
3
Detroit Lions
Last week’s rank: 3
Congratulations to the Lions for their first NFC North title (ever) and first division crown since the first Bush administration. This team has also lost to the Packers and Bears in the last five weeks and Jared Goff seems to teeter between awesome and unwanted on any given Sunday. Still, the NFC is wide open; why not Detroit?
2
San Francisco 49ers
Last week’s rank: 1
When Brock Purdy falls apart, he explodes into tiny little pieces. Monday night’s four interception performance not only doomed him to a crushing loss, it gave MVP voters a reason to vote against him and Kyle Shanahan’s set-it-and-forget-it autopilot offense. But San Francisco is 2-4 when he throws a pick and 9-0 when he doesn’t, which suggests he is, in fact, pretty dang valuable in the grand scheme of things.
1
Baltimore Ravens
Last week’s rank: 2
Lamar Jackson is streaking toward his second MVP award in a season that cannot be defined by his stats alone. He remains a singular force who can tilt the axis of a game with a single play. He’s also 1-3 with only four total touchdowns and seven turnovers in the postseason. So yeah, even the NFL’s best team is dragging some trust issues to the playoffs.
