Welcome to the Power Rankings. We’re a day late, but for good reason. I hope the NFL was a tangential part of the holiday weekend, but not the entirety of your holiday weekend. Instead of writing our weekly staple on Monday, I was lucky enough to watch my daughter get a Furby, which, for people of a certain age, brings back all kinds of time-is-a-flat-circle reverberations. We still cannot figure out how to turn it off. We have spent approximately $32 in batteries to keep it droning on.
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In short, life is good.
Now, let’s get on with the show…
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1. Baltimore Ravens (12–3)
Last week: win at San Francisco, 33–19
Next week: vs. Miami
Most impressive in Baltimore’s possible Super Bowl preview was the team’s resolve. I know a two-point deficit is not much, especially with Lamar Jackson at quarterback, but a safety early in a massive game like that can be unsettling. Instead, it was simply a gnat on Baltimore’s windshield. Yet another defensive masterpiece was pitched by Mike Macdonald, whose full-court pressure on defense, which swarmed some of the backfield completions that teams had been handing Brock Purdy, was a difference-maker.
2. San Francisco 49ers (11–4)
Last week: loss vs. Baltimore, 33–19
Next week: at Washington
I’ve always been interested in Kyle Shanahan’s quarterback-specific development chops. His designing of an offense for Robert Griffin III was spectacular, but, for the most part, Shanahan has preferred and succeeded with veteran type players. Brock Purdy usurped Trey Lance, and now Shanahan has little choice, in a Super Bowl season, to ride or die with a player who could absolutely be a franchise quarterback (he could hand the ball to Sam Darnold, but I don’t see that happening). But, how does Shanahan handle the rigors of a young quarterback’s season? Purdy threw four picks against a lights-out NFL defense. This is a second very bad game this year after mostly perfection to start his career. To say this stretch is delicate is an understatement. And, it’s on the head coach to manage.
3. Philadelphia Eagles (11–4)
Last week: win vs. New York Giants, 33–25
Next week: vs. Arizona
There are teams that get lauded for effort on a regular basis and teams who get picked apart. The Jalen Hurts pick-six against the Giants on Monday would be a game-ender in the playoffs. We are in a kind of reality phase for the Eagles quarterback as well as his defense. He is capable of moving this offense against most teams, but he is something of a liability against aggressive defenses that significantly change profiles after the snap.
4. Miami Dolphins (11–4)
Last week: win vs. Dallas, 22–20
Next week: at Baltimore
The Dolphins beat a team with a winning record, and while the Cowboys, too, have struggled against the NFL’s elite, this was the kind of game we’ve been hoping to see the Dolphins in all season. The tenor of this game was decidedly violent. The weather got bad. Miami had to move the ball inches at a time. And, in those moments, Tua Tagovailoa was able to still operate the machine. The Dolphins can play box lacrosse as well as the full-field product.
5. Detroit Lions (11–4)
Last week: win vs. at Minnesota, 30–24
Next week: at Dallas
The Lions have a division title for the first time since 1993. Sometimes, it’s important to peel back and recognize something truly phenomenal amid the hustle and bustle of an NFL season. Having covered the coaching industry deeply for the past few years, I can say that Dan Campbell was not viewed as a universal, slam-dunk hire. Credit to the Lions, who realized they had something special and were incredibly patient to see the full bloom.
6. Kansas City Chiefs (9–6)
Last week: loss vs. Las Vegas, 20–14
Next week: vs. Cincinnati
I thought the note from Pro Football Talk on whether the Chiefs would bring back Eric Bieniemy was interesting. As we wrote with the wide receiver position, there really isn’t a ton that the Chiefs can do right now. This season, for better or worse, hinged on the molding and development of misfit toy wide receivers. When Kansas City balked at the trade deadline, they left themselves without any tangible maneuvers. Bieniemy is about the only pitch left in the arsenal. It’s Belichickian. Would it also be Reidian?
7. Dallas Cowboys (10–5)
Last week: loss at Miami, 22–20
Next week: vs. Detroit
As of right now, the Cowboys are taking on a Buccaneers team in the playoffs that I’m not entirely sure they can beat. Normal, built-in vacillations are typical with every team, but Dallas’s tendency to shrivel in big-game situations, save for one game this year against the similarly wishy-washy Eagles, is very concerning in an NFC playoff field with one certified elite contender.
8. Buffalo Bills (9–6)
Last week: win at Los Angeles Chargers, 24–22
Next week: vs. New England
I was a little surprised to see the Bills knocked on their heels by the Chargers for a spell. I did not foresee a new head coach bounce from Los Angeles, a team that looked deader than dead the week prior against the Raiders in a horrific beatdown. A win is a win in the NFL, but I do think we need to proceed with caution when we espouse the narrative that all is well and has been fixed over this winning streak.
9. Cleveland Browns (10–5)
Last week: win at Houston, 36–22
Next week: vs. New York Jets
I’m here for this comparison between Joe Flacco and a Ford pickup truck. After abandoning the Browns as a fan due to a trade made last spring, I have to say that I’m enjoying the twisted Wentz-Foles situation being created here. If nothing else, all schadenfreude aside, I’m enjoying the fact that Joe Flacco has backed my fantasy football team into the playoffs and is outplaying a season’s worth of Justin Herbert games that preceded it. Life is best when it makes no sense.
Jeremy Reper/USA TODAY Sports
10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8–7)
Last week: win vs. Jacksonville, 30–12
Next week: vs. New Orleans
Watch how quickly Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans get on the same page when Evans gets open on Tampa Bay’s first touchdown against Jacksonville. At least the way Mayfield’s eyes were working, Evans wasn’t the first read. But, the two have become simpatico to the point where the minute he gains an advantageous body position, the ball is out of Mayfield’s hands. Also, the Buccaneers’ offense is surprisingly good at setting receivers up at the catch point to gain YAC. Something we said a lot about Kyle Shanahan early in his 49ers tenure.
11. Los Angeles Rams (8–7)
Last week: win vs. New Orleans, 30–22
Next week: at New York Giants
Kyren Williams is a good example of why Les Snead and, really, the Rams’ organizational pipeline, deserves a pat on the back this time of year. The former fifth-round pick out of Notre Dame has been able to master a running game that is beautiful but also complex. The Rams can’t survive on just one-cut runners. They need heady studs who can think and react.
12. Indianapolis Colts (8–7)
Last week: loss at Atlanta, 29–10
Next week: vs. Las Vegas
Indianapolis’s season ends with the Raiders and Texans, which are not tap-ins by any stretch. Both the Raiders and the Texans can rush the passer well in similar ways to the Falcons, who were able to rattle Gardner Minshew and get into the backfield and land hits 11 times. An inability to get into the backfield and to protect it are the recipe to derail what has been a fever dream of a Colts run.
13. Jacksonville Jaguars (8–7)
Last week: loss at Tampa Bay, 30–12
Next week: vs. Carolina
This quote from Trevor Lawrence following a blowout loss to the Buccaneers was kind of wild: “It looks like we don’t even practice,” Lawrence said. “The stuff that we’re doing, we look lost, no sense of urgency. I mean the list goes on and on.”
I hate to be doom and gloom, but I’ll say this: if Jacksonville misses the playoffs, which the New York Times’ model says is possible on about 26% of their scenarios, we’d be talking about an all-time squandering of a great position. Sure, Lawrence has been banged up, but the AFC opened itself up to the plucky Jaguars. Now, they are at risk of being leapfrogged by the Texans and Colts.
14. Pittsburgh Steelers (8–7)
Last week: win vs. Cincinnati, 34–11
Next week: at Seattle
Here’s a winning game plan for Pittsburgh in the near future: just compile a hungry armada of backup quarterbacks, make them wait far too long for an opportunity, and then insert them into a game so riled up that they catch a Bengals defense out of position and hit George Pickens for a field-spanning slant route. Problem solved. I’m not sure if Mason Rudolph is going to solve any problems, but he did get rid of the ball quickly—one of the fastest time-to-throw QBs in the league this past weekend—and didn’t just rely on checkdowns.
15. Houston Texans (8–7)
Last week: loss vs. Cleveland, 36–22
Next week: vs. Tennessee
C.J. Stroud returning this week to keep the Texans afloat would be the latest feather in his cap of cool. Of course, no one should rush back from a concussion. Over the past two weeks in Stroud’s absence, the Texans are second to last in the NFL in terms of EPA+CPOE (expected points added + completion percentage over expectation). For those scoring at home, that’s a spot below the lowly Jets.
16. Cincinnati Bengals (8–7)
Last week: loss at Pittsburgh, 34–11
Next week: at Kansas City
I wasn’t surprised that George Pickens went all world beater on the Bengals, but I was surprised at how methodically the Steelers were able to knife the Bengals on their second touchdown drive, which was far less about explosive plays and more about moving corners off their spots, catching linebackers on slower pass catchers and an inability to play physical. A recipe for disaster.
17. Las Vegas Raiders (7–8)
Last week: win at Kansas City, 20–14
Next week: at Indianapolis
Good for Antonio Pierce, who has played his way into a situation where, barring two catastrophic losses to end the season, he deserves to be a frontrunner for the full-time coaching position. If Pierce can keep defensive coordinator Patrick Graham, I see no reason why this can’t be a formidable staff for 2023 as the team finds its footing sans permanent QB solution. Beating both the Colts and Broncos could even put Las Vegas in the postseason. Postseason!
18. Seattle Seahawks (8–7)
Last week: win at Tennessee, 20–17
Next week: vs. Pittsburgh
I’m not quite sure I want to see the Seahawks in the playoffs anymore. That certainly wasn’t the case earlier this year, when the idea of them possibly contending for the division was a momentary story line. Despite the win over the Titans and Geno Smith returning, it does feel a bit like a team running out of gas.
19. Minnesota Vikings (7–8)
Last week: loss vs. Detroit, 30–24
Next week: vs. Green Bay
If you would have played me just the Vikings’ final drive of the first half and their first drive of the second half, I’d wonder if they could possibly contend for the No. 1 seed. I think Nick Mullens is the right bet for the remainder of the season, with fringe playoff potential. However, the sporadic indecision and the sporadic throwing of Justin Jefferson into Kirby Joseph’s wheelhouse needs to go.
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20. Green Bay Packers (7–8)
Last week: win at Carolina, 33–30
Next week: at Minnesota
We’ll see what the Packers have left in the tank. Almost getting snagged by the Carolina Panthers isn’t a great sign, but Jordan Love has a chance to beat two division rivals and sneak Green Bay into the playoffs ahead of schedule. The ancillary games they need to fall in their favor are not ridiculous or unrealistic.
21. Atlanta Falcons (7–8)
Last week: win vs. Indianapolis, 29–10
Next week: at Chicago
It’s a bummer that the Falcons are semi-thriving now that they are mostly out of the playoffs. The Colts talked a lot post-game about Taylor Heinicke’s ability to create space and move in the pocket. I would have thought he and Desmond Ridder would be similar in that way, but it’s true: Heinicke was able to look off defenders, or move them just enough to make some solid throws. With that supporting cast, it’s all you need.
22. New Orleans Saints (7–8)
Last week: loss at Los Angeles Rams, 30–22
Next week: at Tampa Bay
Over the last eight weeks, Derek Carr has been a top 12 quarterback. That’s not fun to hear for many Saints fans but it’s true. New Orleans has had one of the 12 best passers. They’ve had one of the 12 best defenses. The entire team’s offensive line has emerged on and off the injury report, and in that time they have rushed for more than 100 yards in a game twice—both losses. The Saints are weird, man.
23. Denver Broncos (7–8)
Last week: loss vs. New England, 26–23
Next week: vs. Los Angeles Chargers
I thought that Russell Wilson performance, after the Broncos got the ball handed to them on the goal line early in the first quarter, was pretty emblematic of why it will not work out long-term. Wilson came very close to throwing a pick, and then handed the ball off on fourth down when, I felt, he could have carried the ball in himself. The defensive end was preoccupied with a motioning wide receiver, and if Wilson had pulled the ball out and rolled out with the receiver, he would have had a clear path to the end zone.
24. Chicago Bears (6–9)
Last week: win vs. Arizona, 27–16
Next week: vs. Atlanta
The Bears finish the season with very winnable games (especially the way they are playing) against the Falcons and the Packers. I ask you, Bears fans: what do you do with Matt Eberflus if he gets the team to 8–9 after all the catastrophic occurrences that happened at the beginning of of the season? I can say that there are people in the coaching industry who expect this job to open, but those thoughts are ultimately meaningless if Eberflus can stage a last-minute coup.
25. New York Jets (6–9)
Last week: win vs. Washington, 30–28
Next week: at Cleveland
Woody Johnson is in his late-Jerry Jones phase, in that he is finally embracing some pragmatism. Keeping Robert Saleh was about more than pacifying Aaron Rodgers; it was about keeping the groundwork of a possible AFC contender in place. Should the offensive line improve this offseason, we’ll be starting at a 10-win season as a basement. Saleh is used to expectations, but he’s earned the right to see it through.
26. New York Giants (5–10)
Last week: loss at Philadelphia, 33–25
Next week: vs. Los Angeles Rams
The Giants are now on pace to select No. 5 in the NFL draft. I wonder if they would take the highest drafted receiver the franchise has selected since Odell Beckham? This team needs a lot of help, but, I feel like they also may be a playmaker away from consistently being able to clip the Cowboys and Eagles every so often.
27. Tennessee Titans (5–10)
Last week: loss vs. Seattle, 20–17
Next week: at Houston
It seems like Mike Vrabel is putting a lot on the next two weeks with Will Levis, and for good reason. The Titans are, like last year, in a position where they could make the most of the second quarterback wave in the draft. But, if Levis takes the reins these last two weeks, coupled with some scattered but strong performances down the stretch, could we see the Titans pivot and hope that one of their young QBs wins the job out of camp?
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28. Los Angeles Chargers (5–10)
Last week: loss vs. Buffalo, 24–22
Next week: at Denver
I think the goal for the Chargers should be to get Jim Harbaugh on the ground. I would wonder if someone like Kellen Moore would be amenable to a pass game coordinator/run game coordinator situation, pairing Moore, Harbaugh and Greg Roman together to reimagine what was a space-oriented passing game into an offense that more intimately ties the run and pass game together.
29. Washington Commanders (4–11)
Last week: loss at New York Jets, 30–28
Next week: vs. San Francisco
I am very interested to see where Washington goes with its first big hires of the Josh Harris era. Sunday’s game against the Jets, despite a spirited comeback, did nothing to clamp down on that speculation. I have written a little bit about this in our coaching roundup, but I can’t help but connect a team like the Commanders to someone like Mike Macdonald early on. The Commanders are obviously hoping to hit a home run, but I think they’d like to do so with someone capable of manning the fort for years, who has had eyes on a stable, long-term organization. The Ravens tree should have been hot for a while before this, anyway.
30. New England Patriots (4–11)
Last week: win at Denver, 26–23
Next week: at Buffalo
A nice throw from Bailey Zappe to DeVante Parker to set up the game-winning field goal on Sunday, in what was hilariously billed as “The Holiday Classic.” Bill Belichick dressing down Russell Wilson is certainly something. I’m not gathering my children in front of the television to watch it. We actually shifted from this game to Home Alone at our holiday party and I finished watching it Monday night.
31. Arizona Cardinals (3–12)
Last week: loss at Chicago, 27–16
Next week: at Philadelphia
Of the 27 quarterbacks who have logged at least 175 snaps since Week 10, Kyler Murray is 25th in terms of his EPA (expected points added) and CPOE (completion percentage over expectation) combined. I’m not saying he’s been bad, but I am so interested in how the flood of mock drafts have shifted Arizona from almost certainly a quarterback to almost certainly Marvin Harrison Jr. Could it shift back again?
32. Carolina Panthers (2–13)
Last week: loss vs. Green Bay, 33–30
Next week: at Jacksonville
A nice job from Josh Norris here spotlighting some Bryce Young throws. I think I should take the remainder of Panthers space in the Power Rankings for 2024 and devote it to my central thesis: Young is really good. He’s a very, very good player on a very, very bad team and I won’t hear any whataboutism to the contrary.
