Good day to you all, and welcome to this week’s edition of the Power Rankings.
A reminder that your fan experience directly correlates to your ability to handle success graciously. Each year, we see a team that had been stuck in the weeds for some time emerge with a modicum of know-how, and each year we see their fans turn into semimilitant scream bots unaware of the fact that they’re spending a majority of their day turning themselves inside out on the internet for little to no benefit.
A second reminder: Your team’s success may (and likely will be) temporary. Just enjoy it! Power Rankings are a fun way to digest what has happened the week before. The fact that we are doing it weekly signals inherent change. Underlying it all is our collective goal, which is to understand a team over the course of 17 games.
With that in mind, Lions fans, let’s get down to business.
Matt Slocum/AP
1. Philadelphia Eagles (6–1)
Last week: win vs. Miami, 31–17
Next week: at Washington
Everything we hear about the value of a run game, especially as we progress into the end of a season, is also true about the passing game. We just don’t talk about it as much. The beauty of having someone like A.J. Brown on your roster is that, like a physical running back, he is challenging the secondary with each catch. There is such effort devoted to keeping the ball out of his hands, and that strain is only multiplied when Brown has the ball and is barreling his way forward. Sunday’s win was a good reminder of just how deep the Eagles’ roster is. It’s not just Brown—Dallas Goedert, too, has a haymaker—with players in place around those two to stress defenses in different ways.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (6–1)
Last week: win vs. Los Angeles Chargers, 31–17
Next week: at Denver
This is going to sound dumb, just like it did throughout the Tom Brady era when people would always say: “The key to beating Tom Brady is to pressure him.” You’re kidding! Alas, the key to beating Patrick Mahomes comes in situational pressure, and it seemed early on that the Chargers were in the right business, nearly forcing a bad throw and tipped interception. From there? L.A. pressured Mahomes less than any team in the NFL this year to this point; a kind of Buffalo-ian approach. The problem was that, at least in this scenario, minus any organic pressure, Mahomes can simply just exist in the pocket forever by virtue of his finesse. He will find a way no matter what. The perfect example was their scoring drive before the half. Peak Mahomes, flourishing with no pressure, or simply evading whatever minute pressure was attempted. Had the Chiefs not fumbled after the half on their opening drive, they could have been resting starters.
3. San Francisco 49ers (6–2)
Last week: loss at Minnesota, 22–17
Next week: vs. Cincinnati
It’s refreshing, albeit puzzling, to see a night when the 49ers’ pass rush can’t take out one of the more stationary quarterbacks in the NFL, and Brock Purdy looking completely rattled. The 49ers were never going to go undefeated, but in back-to-back weeks they’ve looked decidedly human and now have the Bengals looming postbye. Much like the Lions, it’s startling how merely above average they look when the rushing offense isn’t working full throttle. All that said, this will be a blessing in disguise for Kyle Shanahan, who knows the bye week will be about readjusting.
4. Baltimore Ravens (5–2)
Last week: win vs. Detroit, 38–6
Next week: at Arizona
Here’s my column from Sunday on Lamar Jackson. Albert Breer and I dissected it on the latest MMQB podcast as well. I think the Ravens are operating with max efficiency on both sides of the ball. Mike Macdonald is having a hell of a season as a defensive coordinator, and Jackson is more efficient and dangerous than ever as a passer. I have to imagine that putting these microevolutions under the Ravens’ umbrella of preparedness and edge-finding makes them a far more serious contender than we may have assumed at the outset of the season.
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5. Dallas Cowboys (4–2)
Last week: BYE
Next week: vs. Los Angeles Rams
The Cowboys emerge from the bye week at 4–2, the fifth-highest scoring football team in the NFL (though their defense deserves a lot of credit for that), and a team that is allowing the second-least amount of first downs in the NFL. They have the look of a paper tiger some weeks, and a real, carnivorous tiger in other weeks. Their first Eagles matchup after Halloween should indicate whether they continue to belong here, or if—gasp—they have to drop out of the top eight.
6. Cincinnati Bengals (3–3)
Last week: BYE
Next week: at San Francisco
The Bengals, winners of three of their last four games, are coming off a bye week—hopefully one in which Joe Burrow’s calf was placed in a vacuum sealer and marinated in rejuvenative substances of another world. Honestly, though, what would you have me do with the Bengals? Since Week 3, they are top 10 both in defensive EPA and drop-back success rate. If Burrow rounds into form, they are the Super Bowl team we believed them to be at season’s beginning. I recognize the hypocrisy a bit: The Bengals get the benefit of the doubt, while the Lions do not in this case. However, I feel like we have a larger sample size of what the Bengals can do and how they overcome attrition.
7. Detroit Lions (5–2)
Last week: loss at Baltimore, 38–6
Next week: vs. Las Vegas
As I wrote Sunday, I am not taking a real big-picture view of this Lions’ loss. Sometimes in the NFL, you’re going to get clubbed because you’re still figuring stuff out. I think this is where I want to explain why I previously had the team No. 7, which sent some of Lions Twitter into a tailspin. The Power Rankings are a living, breathing thing. The Buccaneers did a good job of taking away some of their core running concepts, and, like a lot of run-dominant teams, I was curious to see how they would reinvent themselves. I wanted to see the Lions’ counterpunch. I have no doubt it’s there, but what is the harm in putting them as the SEVENTH BEST (read: still very good) until we figure out what that looks like?
8. Miami Dolphins (5–2)
Last week: loss at Philadelphia, 31–17
Next week: vs. New England
The narrative following this game was a bit about the Dolphins’ physicality. I think that’s convenient given that Miami is a speed-oriented team and we will inevitably counter that with: Well, what happens when you get in a fistfight? We saw that a bit against the Eagles, but it’s also important to remember that few teams are able to fistfight like the Eagles. They are like boxers who then learned jiujitsu. No combat is off the table. And in Miami’s defense, they did get to him a bit. Hurts was sacked three times, although it was his second-easiest game of the season in terms of number of throws under duress. Does it matter over the long term if Miami can’t necessarily wear an opponent out? It’s worth keeping an eye on.
Matthew Hinton/USA TODAY Sports
9. Jacksonville Jaguars (5–2)
Last week: win at New Orleans, 31–24
Next week: at Pittsburgh
Winners of Thursday Night Football, I imagine the Jaguars are the next team whose fan base will beat its chest and complain relentlessly about their position in the Power Rankings. Over the last three weeks, Trevor Lawrence has had the eighth-best drop-back success rate in the NFL (meaning, whether the call to pass resulted in a success, or the cutting down of a certain amount of yardage per down). Most importantly, their defense is sixth-best in EPA (expected points added) per opponent drop-back.
10. Buffalo Bills (4–3)
Last week: loss at New England, 29–25
Next week: vs. Tampa Bay
I knocked the Bills for this loss, but I am less aghast by it than others (perhaps because I am the doofus who picked the Patriots to win the AFC East). Bill Belichick is always going to pick off a few wins against divisional opponents during the year. Buffalo, though, tackled poorly. It allowed itself to get corralled defensively and it gave Mac Jones a chance to get comfortable, which few teams have done this year. It’s proof that any team can lose, but certainly, the Bills are deciding to go through their slump right now. This is a loss they would like to have back.
11. Seattle Seahawks (4–2)
Last week: win vs. Arizona, 20–10
Next week: vs. Cleveland
Forever to be known as the Jake Bobo game, the Seahawks’ victory over Arizona gives them a comfortable distance over the middling Rams. Still, this Seahawks team is far from chaotic. A muffed punt and a near Geno Smith pick-six were overshadowed by the fact that Seattle was playing the Cardinals, who are contractually obligated to be good for two quarters of each game this season.
12. Pittsburgh Steelers (4–2)
Last week: win at Los Angeles Rams, 24–17
Next week: vs. Jacksonville
Kenny Pickett: eight rushes, zero yards, one touchdown on the ground, and no passing touchdowns. The result? The Steelers put up 24 points on the Rams and moved to 4–2, because of course they did. In all seriousness, we’re seeing the development of the Steelers’ offense on schedule. Not the kind of nuclear microwave schedule we’re telling ourselves is normal now, but a good, accurate passer adjusting to NFL life on the fly. His ability to get the ball to his receivers, and the relationships they’re forging that help them utilize soft spots together, are helping Pittsburgh win more downs. The last three weeks, Pickett is throwing for more air yards per pass than all but nine quarterbacks in the NFL.
13. Cleveland Browns (4–2)
Last week: win at Indianapolis, 39–38
Next week: at Seattle
Here are more extended thoughts on the Browns game. But basically, two things can be true at once: This team can be really good, and it can also have made a historic error at the quarterback position. We are nearing the point where I wonder whether it’s not time to bring in someone during the trade deadline under the disguise that Deshaun Watson isn’t healthy, even though coach Kevin Stefanski said Sunday that Watson would have gone back in if PJ Walker was hurt. Anyway, I am pretty thrilled with my Myles Garrett preseason defensive MVP award pick.
14. New York Jets (3–3)
Last week: BYE
Next week: at New York Giants
It’s time for the Jets to step into playoff contention mode. Their reprieve from a brutal beginning of the season is here: the Giants at home, followed by an additional rest day and the Chargers on Monday Night Football, which is also at home. Not an easy stretch, but both games are winnable based on the way they’ve been playing in recent weeks.
15. Atlanta Falcons (4–3)
Last week: win at Tampa Bay, 16–13
Next week: at Tennessee
Desmond Ridder, in the third quarter with the Falcons up by three (and down their top weapon, Bijan Robinson), rolled out enough to manipulate a linebacker while Tyler Allgeier got deeper into his route, which ended up yielding a huge gain. That drive, had it not been for the absolutely ridiculous fumble-touchback rule, would have ended in a touchdown and a knockout blow. Ridder is getting more experienced and comfortable, even if the stats might not necessarily show it. He dipped from 21st to 23rd in EPA per play from Weeks 1–3 to Weeks 4–7 but is starting to make a handful of plays, like the pass to Kyle Pitts to set up the game-winning field goal, in critical situations.
More important, kudos to this defense. Over the last three weeks, the Falcons have been the third best against the rush in the NFL. A third-and-short stop after a costly fumble was a game-saver, among many other big plays.
16. Houston Texans (3–3)
Last week: BYE
Next week: at Carolina
Three of the next four opponents for Houston: Cardinals, Buccaneers and, up next, the Panthers. The Texans are coming out of the bye at .500, C.J. Stroud is one of the most turnover-averse quarterbacks in the NFL and, I would argue, he still hasn’t hit that rookie in-season boost when the game starts to make more sense. He’s definitely better than a 59.6% passer. The ceiling for this offense in 2023 alone is quite high.
17. Indianapolis Colts (3–4)
Last week: loss vs. Cleveland, 39–38
Next week: vs. New Orleans
There is so much promise in this Colts team already. To score at this volume against the best defense in football, all the while your backup quarterback is getting pummeled by the league’s best defensive player (right now), says so much about where the Colts are now and where they are going. Games like this are why it’s good to have a gunslinger like Gardner Minshew, who can adequately bounce back from bad picks and keep pulling the trigger fearlessly against the teeth of a really good pass rush.
Jay Biggerstaff/USA Today Sports
18. Los Angeles Chargers (2–4)
Last week: loss at Kansas City, 31–17
Next week: vs. Chicago
This Chargers team was playing the Chiefs, and so this criticism may feel a little unnaturally harsh. But, they often fail to handle attrition, and it seems a lot of their breakdowns are ones in which they simply don’t have enough resilience. This was the best the team had looked in a while through most of three quarters and the backside running game was picking up some gashes. Then, a tipped pick in the red zone. On the following drive, Patrick Mahomes converts a third-and-15 against a picket fence defense. On the next Chargers offensive possession, Justin Herbert almost throws a pick. Over their last three games, the Chargers have averaged 3.3 points per game in the second half.
19. Los Angeles Rams (3–4)
Last week: loss vs. Pittsburgh, 24–17
Next week: at Dallas
I thought this game was over when the Rams went up a touchdown Sunday in the third quarter, converted the two-point conversion, then sacked Pickett on the following drive. However, a badly jumped pass to Diontae Johnson and the folding of their run defense allowed Pittsburgh to cap a pretty shocking comeback. The Rams have two of their next four games against the Cowboys and Seahawks, at which point we’ll be able to see just how far off Sean McVay is from returning this team to form.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3–3)
Last week: win vs. Atlanta, 16–13
Next week: at Buffalo
Now that we’re in a scoring drought, I think quarterbacks like Baker Mayfield are sneaky valuable. Like I mentioned with Gardner Minshew, there is something to a fearlessness to keep plugging along against brick-wall defenses. Obviously, you’d rather have someone who just outscores the opponent, but Mayfield’s defense keeps him in games long enough for second and third chances. He is not fazed by the need for second and third chances.
21. New Orleans Saints (3–4)
Last week: loss vs. Jacksonville, 31–24
Next week: at Indianapolis
I thought that former NFL quarterback J.T. O’Sullivan made a really astute point about Derek Carr following the Saints’ Week 7 loss. Never mind the fact that he was yelling at the offensive coordinator—after an interception was thrown, he’s the only member of the Saints not on the screen trying to make a tackle. Of course he’s hurt, but there is a base level of effort (read: not running into the end zone) that needs to be on display. This season is still salvageable. New Orleans has arguably the best defense in football right now. But it seems like there needs to be some words said, some beef hashed, that has not been dealt with.
22. Minnesota Vikings (3–4)
Last week: win vs. San Francisco, 22–17
Next week: at Green Bay
Brian Flores and Kirk Cousins, two maligned Vikings, had incredible nights. Flores, especially, mixed coverages so well and was one of the first coordinators to have Brock Purdy looking constantly uncomfortable. Cousins avoided pressure well and, according to ESPN, became the second quarterback over the last two seasons to have 300-plus passing yards and two or more passing touchdowns against this defense. Cousins was also tied for the most passing attempts (45) in a game this year without a sack.
23. Green Bay Packers (2–4)
Last week: loss at Denver, 19–17
Next week: vs. Minnesota
Coming off the bye, the Packers score fewer than 20 points against a team that surrendered 70 a few weeks ago. Jordan Love’s two-touchdown afternoon was misleading, as an incredible gift ricocheted off a receiver’s hands and into another. One stat that was not misleading? AJ Dillon led the team in both receiving and rushing. This is not a sustainable recipe for the Packers moving forward. The Packers are 29th in ESPN’s run block win rate metric. It shows.
24. Washington Commanders (3–4)
Last week: loss at New York Giants, 14–7
Next week: vs. Philadelphia
An absolute stunner of a stat dug up by The Washington Post on Sunday, via TruMedia: “[Sam] Howell has taken a sack on 34.8 percent of his pressures, which, if that holds up, would be the highest rate of any quarterback since at least 2011, according to TruMedia. That’s a massive problem capable of derailing drives.”
That is why this game was an absolute perfect forum for Wink Martindale’s defense.
25. New York Giants (2–5)
Last week: win vs. Washington, 14–7
Next week: vs. New York Jets
Deonte Banks got his first NFL reception on a perfectly Don Martindale–ian pressure look, preceded by an opening drive in which the Giants were trying to get Jalin Hyatt going (the big home run from Hyatt came later in the game, spoiled by a Saquon Barkley fumble afterward). He nearly came up with a touchdown catch as well. The positives are there for the Giants, who are developing some of their core players for the future, even if this season isn’t quite shaping up to be what they’d hoped for. I know Barkley doesn’t want to leave New Jersey (who does?), but man, would he be a nice piece for a contender.
26. Tennessee Titans (2–4)
Last week: BYE
Next week: vs. Atlanta
The Titans come out of the bye week having dealt Kevin Byard. My more complete thoughts are here. I think Mike Vrabel will get the most out of Terrell Edmunds, or I think he’s expected to, which could salvage the deal. I also think that he’s the kind of coach who rallies around moments when his team’s backs are obviously up against the wall. Tennessee needs a makeover; it’s coming. The Falcons, Steelers and Buccaneers are up next, and, even without Byard, are winnable games.
27. New England Patriots (2–5)
Last week: win vs. Buffalo, 29–25
Next week: at Miami
The Patriots were able to get comfortable and utilize some of Bill O’Brien’s Alabama-inspired numbers-game offense against the Bills, where they would lop most of the defense on one side of the ball and chuck it the other way. Demario Douglas brought some much-needed speed, and run-after-the-catch ability, while Ezekiel Elliott out-touched Rhamondre Stevenson in the run game, perhaps utilizing his superior pass protecting skills.
Charles Rex Arbogast/AP
28. Las Vegas Raiders (3–4)
Last week: loss at Chicago, 30–12
Next week: at Detroit
The Josh McDaniels era has been peppered with some hard-to-explain defeats. The Colts’ loss last year was certainly one. The Bears, starting an undrafted free-agent quarterback (who is good, by the way) is another. Coming off the high of a victory over the Patriots a week ago and a return to .500, Las Vegas failed to capitalize on any semblance of momentum. The Raiders are 28th in rush success rate by an opponent, with nearly half the running plays being called against this defense aiding in sustainable drives.
29. Denver Broncos (2–5)
Last week: win vs. Green Bay, 19–17
Next week: vs. Kansas City
How many people were asking, as Russell Wilson led the Broncos down the field for a field goal drive before the end of the first half: Where on Earth has that guy been? Right here all along, apparently. Wilson’s escapability is either back, or being more willingly utilized. Now, we wait and see whether Sean Payton takes his recent and encouraging sample size as an opportunity to double down on playoff predictions, or if this team is going to get sold for parts.
30. Chicago Bears (2–5)
Last week: win vs. Las Vegas, 30–12
Next week: at Los Angeles Chargers
There was a fullback checkdown in the third quarter that Tyson Bagent made while being chased by Maxx Crosby, and I was stopped in my tracks. This kid was playing football at Shepherd University last year and, no offense to the Rams, but there is nothing like Crosby on those fields. He is wonderfully composed and threw really well on the run Sunday.
31. Arizona Cardinals (1–6)
Last week: loss at Seattle, 20–10
Next week: vs. Baltimore
The Cardinals had a chance before the half to make this game very, very interesting. Unfortunately, for this team, most of the true interest will be in how they handle the trade deadline and if any teams come calling. This week in Cardinals’ effort noticing: They hung really tough on a goal line stand at the beginning of the third quarter.
32. Carolina Panthers (0–6)
Last week: BYE
Next week: vs. Houston
All eyes are on Thomas Brown, who’s taking the offensive play-calling reins from Frank Reich. My understanding: Reich wanted to, at some point, pass those off this season. Brown will get the most high-profile crack, though this staff is peppered with other coaches who have been pegged as future play-callers. Both Josh McCown and Parks Frazier, who called plays for Jeff Saturday, are also in the building.
