Welcome to the power rankings. If you’re still coming down from the absolute psychoactive experience that was Jets-Bills, here’s a warm glass of tea and a comfortable bed to lie down in while your head stops spinning.
Most of the time, I’d tell someone coming off a trip this bad that it was all in your head. Sometimes when we ingest strange substances, we see and hear things that are not of this world. Colors. People. Creatures. Talking inanimate objects. But, my friend, everything you just witnessed at MetLife Stadium on Monday night was completely real.
The further we get from the opening week of the season, the more abstract, nonsensical and sleep-deprivation-silly the NFL becomes. And that is a sweet spot that we should not take for granted.
1. Kansas City Chiefs (5–0)
Last week’s ranking: No. 1
Last week’s result: bye
This week: at San Francisco
Coming off the bye, Kansas City travels to San Francisco for a Super Bowl rematch. Upcoming, there’s an interesting stretch of games that doesn’t look like a murderer’s row but should teach us a little about other teams, while also keeping alive the possibility that the Chiefs stay undefeated for a while.
2. Detroit Lions (4–1)
Last week’s ranking: No. 2
Last week’s result: beat Dallas, 47–9
This week: at Minnesota
Can you imagine how many agents of edge rushers on bad teams are getting calls from their clients right now asking for the opportunity to play for Dan Campbell and alongside this beefy defensive line? I expect the Lions to be aggressive to limit the wound licking period after the unfortunate Aidan Hutchinson injury.
Also: Save the Thicc Six.
3. Minnesota Vikings (5–0)
Last week’s ranking: No. 3
Last week’s result: bye
This week: vs. Detroit
Speaking of Hutchinson, boy do I wish he was healthy for this Vikings-Lions matchup. This deserved to be a game that occurred with both teams at full strength, though that’s not the reality of the NFL. At the bye, Minnesota is the eighth best team in the NFL in terms of dropback success rate on offense and, defensively, is the second best team in the NFL in terms of dropback success rate allowed. I wonder what Kevin O’Connell and Brian Flores have cooked up after the self scout.
4. Baltimore Ravens (4–2)
Last week’s ranking: No. 6
Last week’s result: beat Washington, 30–23
This week: at Tampa Bay
What sold me on the Baltimore Ravens this year? On Derrick Henry’s first touchdown Sunday, the best block in the goal line situation was thrown by … Zay Flowers. This team is so bought into the system. It used to be an offense where some of the best skill position players wanted to stay away. Now it’s an offense where the skill position players eat and contribute to the core physicality.
5. Green Bay Packers (4–2)
Last week’s ranking: No. 5
Last week’s result: beat Arizona, 34–13
This week: vs. Houston
Evan Williams, the team’s fourth-round draft pick out of Fresno State, has come on over the last two weeks and, against Arizona, broke down Kyler Murray and made a critical stop in the backfield on a third-and-short. To me, it was emblematic of the team’s athleticism, not just on offense, but, as we’re increasingly seeing, on defense. It’s why I remain so unapologetically high on this team as a possible Super Bowl wild card.
6. Washington Commanders (4–2)
Last week’s ranking: No. 4
Last week’s result: lost to Baltimore, 30–23
This week: vs. Carolina
Series Conversion Rate is a fun stat that tracks the percentage of fresh downs that result in an additional first down or touchdown. And the Commanders actually had a better SCR against the Ravens than they did a week ago in a beatdown of the Cleveland Browns. While it’s a bit of a copout observation, seeing Jayden Daniels play this well, especially with Baltimore eliminating the Commanders’ early down rushes, was impressive.
7. Houston Texans (5–1)
Last week’s ranking: No. 8
Last week’s result: beat New England, 41–21
This week: at Green Bay
Seeing how successful the Texans were in terms of EPA per play on rushing downs obviously illustrates the effectiveness of Joe Mixon in this particular offense. The big-bodied, powerful back who also has receiving skills was a desire of Houston’s all offseason. Now, I wonder what they will do for Mixon insurance down the stretch. Even though Dameon Pierce had a nice long run in this game, he’s clearly not what this offense wants on a down-by-down basis. I wonder if Kansas City would be open to downsize and lose any of their backs, or if the Panthers would part with Chuba Hubbard given that he’s a 2025 free agent anyway.
8. San Francisco 49ers (3–3)
Last week’s ranking: No. 9
Last week’s result: beat Seattle, 36–24
This week: vs. Kansas City
The 49ers are in the thick of their schedule right now, with a long-rest matchup against the Chiefs followed by games against Dallas, Tampa Bay, Green Bay and Seattle a second time. While I’m dying to see what Mike Macdonald does against Kyle Shanahan the second time in a matter of weeks, we’re looking to see if San Francisco can play against some of the best teams on their schedule still without a full complement of healthy skill position players, given that it may simply be its reality in 2024.
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4–2)
Last week’s ranking: No. 7
Last week’s result: beat New Orleans, 51–27
This week: vs. Baltimore
While surrendering 27 points to the Saints in one quarter looks concerning from 30,000 feet, here’s what I look at: Todd Bowles made halftime adjustments that completely took the smoke out of this Saints’ offense. The post-half drive chart for New Orleans was: punt, punt, punt, interception, punt, interception. This, during a chaotic week with the entire state of Florida in flux and a mass relocation for the Buccaneers, was impressive.
10. Pittsburgh Steelers (4–2)
Last week’s ranking: No. 14
Last week’s result: beat Las Vegas, 32–13
This week: vs. New York Jets
Only two of Justin Fields’s games this year have culminated in a total EPA of less than five for the game, and Fields has yet to cost the team points. While Russell Wilson was similarly consistent during the beginning of the year with the 2023 Broncos, Fields has the Steelers in the top half of the league in most offensive efficiency categories. Oddly enough, it’s rushing success rate that has been flummoxing Pittsburgh. Let’s fix that first before we have a serious conversation about a QB change.
11. Buffalo Bills (4–2)
Last week’s ranking: No. 10
Last week’s result: beat New York Jets, 23–20
This week: vs. Tennessee
The Bills beat the Jets but continued to struggle in game management situations. Giving up a Hail Mary to the King of Hail Marys is bordering on inexcusable at this point and it could have cost Buffalo on a night where they pretty soundly outplayed their opponents. Grit only goes so far when you have one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and need to start truly outpacing some of the inferior teams within the division.
12. Chicago Bears (4–2)
Last week’s ranking: No. 16
Last week’s result: beat Jacksonville, 35–16
This week: bye
The 31-yard touchdown pass from Caleb Williams to Cole Kmet was, for sure, a sign of Williams’s growth and maturity and all of that. Yadda yadda. But can we go back and look at that freakin’ play call? Dual motion from Keenan Allen that identifies the coverage and sucks a defender to the opposite side of the field. Fake quick pass to Allen to the left. Fake screen action set up to the right. Fake screen pass pump fake to take care of Jacksonville’s free rusher. Then, after all of that, your tight end just streaking down the middle of the field. We said it last week. We’re doubling down. Shane Waldron is on fire.
13. Philadelphia Eagles (3–2)
Last week’s ranking: No. 12
Last week’s result: beat Cleveland, 20–16
This week: at New York Giants
More thoughts on the Eagles here specifically. I don’t know what to make of this offense if I’m being honest. Everyone had this sigh of relief when A.J. Brown caught a deep ball followed by the inevitable why the hell aren’t we doing this more? Nick Sirianni is in a difficult spot with a quarterback who doesn’t seem to be seeing it, or an offense that can’t seem to show Jalen Hurts the field like Shane Steichen could. Whatever it is, I’m not sure what Sirianni can do to “win.”
14. Cincinnati Bengals (2–4)
Last week’s ranking: No. 18
Last week’s result: beat New York Giants, 17–7
This week: at Cleveland
The Bengals deserved to lose this game, and they remain the most absolutely puzzling team in the NFL. They were a field goal kicker away from being 1–5, but for magical slivers of the game, Joe Burrow still looks completely cool and unstoppable. I don’t know how one changes that. We hear Dak Prescott referencing noncompetitive practices in Dallas, for example. Is that what’s happening in Cincinnati, except the team can still sleepwalk its way into clutch plays? Do they just need a running back? Who knows.
15. Los Angeles Chargers (3–2)
Last week’s ranking: No. 15
Last week’s result: beat Denver, 23–16
This week: at Arizona
I’m finally starting to get it. Ripping off a 20-play drive that just ends with a field goal is such a middle finger to the opposition. And utilizing Justin Herbert as a kind of In Case of Emergency switch is kind of brilliant and back-breaking when you really think about it. Run the ball, then when the defense finally gets you into a third-and-4, allow Herbert to extend the play and whip a ball over the middle to Stone Smartt. What a way to drain the life out of your opponents.
16. Indianapolis Colts (3–3)
Last week’s ranking: No. 21
Last week’s result: beat Tennessee, 20–17
This week: vs. Miami
This week in fun Shane Steichen backfield motions (now a weekly feature, I’ve determined): On Tyler Goodson’s 31-yard rush in the second quarter, the Colts sent Josh Downs from the right side of the formation back toward Joe Flacco. Downs then circles Flacco and Goodson almost like they’re playing duck, duck, goose and sprints back toward the right side of the formation all so the Colts can hand the ball off to the left. It’s beautiful.
17. Seattle Seahawks (3–3)
Last week’s ranking: No. 17
Last week’s result: lost to San Francisco, 36–24
This week: at Atlanta
Just a warning to all future 49ers opponents, as the Seahawks learned this past week: If you injure a 49ers running back you just simply face the consequences of another running back of whom you’ve never heard running for 9.9 yards a carry against your defense.
18. Atlanta Falcons (4–2)
Last week’s ranking: No. 11
Last week’s result: beat Carolina, 38–20
This week: vs. Seattle
I think if Atlanta starts a game the way it did against Carolina—allowing a 10-plus-play touchdown drive after going three and out, then fumbling and turning the ball back over after a game-tying score–-it would usually find itself in a very serious hole. Luckily, the Carolina Panthers provide plenty of opportunities to get right.
19. Dallas Cowboys (3–3)
Last week’s ranking: No. 13
Last week’s result: lost to Detroit, 47–9
This week: bye
A wholly embarrassing defeat at the hands of the Detroit Lions should have shown anyone in that building who actually cares just how far Dallas is from being a legitimate contender. I don’t know what you do at this point, either. The team has tied itself in knots with a poor salary cap situation, poor long-term planning and another mega-extension. All of its coaching staff is hanging out to dry on one-year deals. Sometimes you have to sit in the mess you’ve created for yourself.
20. Arizona Cardinals (2–4)
Last week’s ranking: No. 19
Last week’s result: lost to Green Bay, 34–13
This week: vs. Los Angeles Chargers
I don’t really count this as a blowout, as weird as it sounds. Despite Green Bay being in boat race mode for the early portion of this game, the Cardinals scored, got a pick, kicked a field goal and got the ball back after the half. Of course, losing Marvin Harrison Jr. is difficult, as is playing their brand of football when trailing by multiple touchdowns. I stand by my prediction of a late-season surge for the Cardinals culminating in a potential seventh-seed playoff berth.
21. Los Angeles Rams (1–4)
Last week’s ranking: No. 25
Last week’s result: bye
This week: vs. Las Vegas
Beating the Raiders can get Sean McVay’s club back into the swing of things before a Thursday night matchup against the Vikings. But having Cooper Kupp for that venture, which at least looks possible, is a game changer for this offense. Also, the Rams, at 1–4, are 1.5 games out of first place right now.
22. Denver Broncos (3–3)
Last week’s ranking: No. 23
Last week’s result: lost to Los Angeles Chargers, 23–16
This week: at New Orleans
Bo Nix’s EPA per play and total EPA were actually markedly better than they were a week ago against Las Vegas in the “Ferris Bueller” game. But, as Nix knows best: Life moves pretty fast.
23. New York Jets (2–4)
Last week’s ranking: No. 24
Last week’s result: lost to Buffalo, 23–20
This week: at Pittsburgh
The Jets looked slightly better on offense, which I imagine could have been accomplished without the in-season firing of head coach Robert Saleh. Alas, we’re in Woody Johnson’s world now, and if he was upset about being picked apart in London, I imagine following that up with a loss to their division rivals in which most of their points came off a Hail Mary and thanks to a roughing the passer call that the team’s own quarterback felt was ridiculous, is no bueno. Still plenty more people Johnson can fire to make a statement, right?
24. New York Giants (2–4)
Last week’s ranking: No. 22
Last week’s result: lost to Cincinnati, 17–7
This week: vs. Philadelphia
This team is a field goal kicker away from having beat the Commanders and Bengals. Brian Daboll’s frustration is understood, though the bright spot here has been the boost that Tyrone Tracy Jr. has added to this offense. A checkdown-plus option at tailback is a game-changing prospect for Daniel Jones sans Malik Nabers. With Philly, Pittsburgh, Washington and Carolina all coming down the pike, I don’t see why this team can’t be sitting close to .500 heading into its Week 11 bye.
25. New Orleans Saints (2–4)
Last week’s ranking: No. 20
Last week’s result: lost to Tampa Bay, 51–27
This week: vs. Denver
It’s hard not to feel for Dennis Allen, who seemed to be getting some traction with this team and this offense before Derek Carr was injured and they hit the swampy part of their schedule. Now, New Orleans is looking at tough games against both Denver and the Chargers. While not as difficult as Tampa Bay, both of New Orleans’s next opponents are tough and equally desperate.
26. Miami Dolphins (2–3)
Last week’s ranking: No. 26
Last week’s result: bye
This week: at Indianapolis
Knowing people who know Mike McDaniel, I would say that him actually uttering publicly that Tua Tagovailoa could play again this season was a big deal. But I want to note this: It’s a big deal because I know how much thought and care went into actually saying it out loud. I don’t know if there’s a coach who has put more personal equity into a quarterback in recent times than McDaniel and Tagovailoa, and, of late, this has been a clinic in how to respect someone going through a difficult time.
27. Tennessee Titans (1–4)
Last week’s ranking: No. 27
Last week’s result: lost to Indianapolis, 20–17
This week: at Buffalo
Let’s check in on the 2024 Titans, shall we?
28. Jacksonville Jaguars (1–5)
Last week’s ranking: No. 28
Last week’s result: lost to Chicago, 35–16
This week: vs. New England
One would have to assume that the New England game in London is a kind of last stand for Doug Pederson, although the optics here are interesting. While defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen was certainly going to be on my head coaching radar if he kept putting up the kind of seasons he did in Atlanta last year, there is no clear interim you would want to evaluate long-term like the Jets are doing with Jeff Ulbrich. And Shad Khan may be dubious about firing a second straight coach in-season no matter how lost this cause becomes.
29. New England Patriots (1–5)
Last week’s ranking: No. 32
Last week’s result: lost to Houston, 41–21
This week: at Jacksonville
Full thoughts on Drake Maye here. There were moments of spiciness and energy from this Patriots team, which was clearly buoyed by the presence of Maye. The rookie had the best game by a Patriots QB all season and the most electric play by a Patriots QB since 2022. He goes from a vaunted Texans defense, which led the league in QB pressure rate and opposing QB completion percentage coming into Sunday’s game, to an international travel game against Jacksonville before coming back to a division rivalry game against the Jets. Welcome!
30. Las Vegas Raiders (2–4)
Last week’s ranking: No. 29
Last week’s result: lost to Pittsburgh, 32–13
This week: at Los Angeles Rams
A lot of what Antonio Pierce is dealing with is outside of his control in terms of the roster he was dealt and the situation he inherited. Here’s one thing that does fall on him: The former linebacker’s team is the worst tackling unit in the NFL by a comfortable margin.
31. Cleveland Browns (1–5)
Last week’s ranking: No. 30
Last week’s result: lost to Philadelphia, 20–16
This week: vs. Cincinnati
I am beginning to become hip to a new idea: that the Browns are simply going to ride Deshaun Watson into the ground and secure the No. 1 pick to draft a cost-controlled replacement with more talent, which will take the eventual sting out of having to swallow a historic amount of dead cap. This wouldn’t be unprecedented for a franchise that has essentially purchased draft picks as well as offered cash incentives for their former head coach, Hue Jackson, to make a large number of high draft picks after his first year.
32. Carolina Panthers (1–5)
Last week’s ranking: No. 31
Last week’s result: lost to Atlanta, 38–20
This week: at Washington
Did you know that the Carolina Panthers have a better rushing success rate than the Cardinals, 49ers, Bills, Steelers, Packers, Bears or Texans? Anyway, that was something nice about the Panthers. Andy Dalton registered a negative-5 EPA against the Falcons on Sunday and you might look at that and say, well this means they should just play Bryce Young. Until you realize that Bryce Young had a negative 23 EPA against the Chargers and was actually better the week prior against New Orleans.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as NFL Power Rankings: Bills Out of Top 10 Despite Monday Night Win.
