The teams with the best quarterbacks are usually going to be at the top of the NFL, and the teams stumbling around at that position won’t have a chance.
And there’s a big group of teams in the middle that don’t seem to know which they are. The Bears are in that category.
General manager Ryan Poles has made upgrades almost across the board, estimating this week that he’s 75-80% of the way through rebuilding the roster he inherited, but he needs quarterback Justin Fields to take a big step forward or those improvements won’t be so noticeable.
Fields was an incredible runner last season with 1,143 yards, the most by a quarterback in Bears history. But he almost certainly won’t be able to keep doing that. Neither he nor the Bears thinks that’s the path forward for him, and every opponent on the schedule has spent part of its offseason scheming ways to keep him in the pocket.
The Bears seem confident he can grow as a passer, but evidence of that has been scarce to this point. In 27 career games, Fields has completed 59.7% of his passes, has thrown 24 touchdowns against 21 interceptions and has a 79.7 passer rating. He has topped 200 yards passing just six times and never hit 300.
That said, there was a lot wrong around him. First, he endured the dysfunction of Matt Nagy and Ryan Pace as a rookie, then he had minimal quality players around him last season amid the Bears’ teardown.
Poles believes he’s done enough by fortifying the offensive line and wide receiver corps to facilitate Fields’ next step. If that all comes together, the Bears have as much hope to win the NFC North as any other team, but if it doesn’t, they’ll be picking near the top of the draft again — and probably looking for a new quarterback.
With the regular season starting Thursday, here’s how everyone looks. The rankings start, predictably, with teams that have stars at quarterback:
1. Eagles
The Eagles started 8-0 last season and, looking at their schedule, it’s realistic they could do it again. This is the NFL’s best roster.
2. Chiefs
The Chiefs keep shuffling their roster and they let left tackle Orlando Brown and No. 1 wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster leave, but Patrick Mahomes is still the man at the center of it.
3. Bengals
There’s minimal gap between the Bengals and the two teams ahead of them. They’re a legitimate championship contender. The only issue is whether Joe Burrow starts slowly due to his calf injury.
4. 49ers
Plan on another Eagles-49ers matchup in the NFC Championship game. Much like Philadelphia, it’s hard to find significant flaws in this roster.
5. Bills
The Bills had the second-best point differential last season and went 13-3, but they don’t seem to have the firepower to get past the Chiefs or Bengals.
6. Ravens
The Ravens managed to go 10-7 and make the playoffs even with quarterback Lamar Jackson’s injury, but now he’s back — and he has Odell Beckham.
7. Dolphins
A lot of pieces are in place for the Dolphins to make a run, but losing three-time All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey for most of the season because of an injury is going to hinder them.
8. Jets
New quarterback Aaron Rodgers won the MVP in 2020 and ’21. That wasn’t too long ago. And the Jets allowed the fourth-fewest points in the NFL last season.
9. Chargers
The Chargers have star power with quarterback Justin Herbert and pass rusher Khalil Mack, but the rest of their roster isn’t ready to chase the Chiefs.
10. Cowboys
The Cowboys are one of the favorites in Las Vegas to win the Super Bowl, but they haven’t reached an NFC title game since 1995.
11. Jaguars
The Jaguars had their first winning season since 2017, won the AFC South and upended the Chargers in a thrilling playoff game.
12. Lions
It seems like anyone could win the NFC North this season, so why not the Lions? They’re the odds-on favorite.
13. Seahawks
The Seahawks finished ninth in points last season, but they’re betting on repeating that performance with Geno Smith. He made the Pro Bowl last season, but with skepticism.
14. Giants
The NFC overall is weak, but the Giants are looking up at the Eagles and Cowboys in their own division. They won one game in the East last season.
15. Broncos
Sean Payton walked in with a lot to fix on a 5-12 team, but it’s reasonable to bet on quarterback Russell Wilson bouncing back.
16. Steelers
The Steelers haven’t had a losing season since 2003, but they’re teetering on the brink of one with Kenny Pickett, Mitch Trubisky and Mason Rudolph at quarterback.
17. Vikings
The Bears have lost four straight in this series, but it seems like the Vikings are gradually on their way down.
18. Patriots
The Patriots are 25-25 with no playoff wins since Tom Brady left and they haven’t seemed to find his replacement in Mac Jones.
19. Saints
There’s no good team in the NFC South. Someone could even win it going 8-9, and the Saints have the best chance.
20. Browns
Quarterback Deshaun Watson made three consecutive Pro Bowls before derailing his career with scandal. If he can play like that again, the Browns can be a playoff team.
21. Packers
Can anyone say how good Jordan Love is? In three seasons with the Packers, he has started one game and thrown 83 passes.
22. Rams
The Rams are coming off an epic plunge from winning the Super Bowl to going 5-12 last season, but they’re getting quarterback Matt Stafford back.
23. Bears
The Bears could win 10 games this season. They also could win five. They’re betting on several unknowns, the biggest of which is Fields.
24. Raiders
The Raiders picked Josh McDaniel to lead their rebuild. He went 11-17 in two seasons coaching the Broncos and 6-11 in his first season in Las Vegas.
25. Titans
The Titans are clinging to their hopes to compete with Ryan Tannehill at quarterback, but they slipped from 12-5 in 2021 to 7-10 last season.
26. Commanders
This is another team that seems aimless. The Commanders haven’t had a winning season since 2015 and don’t have a promising plan at quarterback.
27. Panthers
The Bears need the Panthers to lose as much as possible and they get a chance to help that when they host them in Week 10.
28. Texans
The Texans are building from scratch, but they have tons of draft picks and salary-cap space coming their way. They picked quarterback C.J. Stroud and defensive end Will Anderson second and third in the draft this year.
29. Colts
It sure would’ve helped rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson to have All-Pro running back Jonathan Taylor, but the Colts will be without him the first four games.
30. Falcons
There are some interesting skill players in place, but the Falcons are still riding on Desmond Ridder at quarterback, and he’s an unknown.
31. Buccaneers
The Buccaneers are in a freefall, and now they’re replacing Brady with Baker Mayfield.
32. Cardinals
The Cardinals seem to be trying to plummet to the bottom and get the No. 1 pick. Quarterback Kyler Murray will miss at least the first four games, so that’ll help.
