Despite middling play from Jimmy Garoppolo in the NFL playoffs, the San Francisco 49ers are on their way to the NFC Championship Game. In many ways, the Niners stand out among the final four competitors in this year’s playoffs where Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow and Matthew Stafford lead the other three teams.
The NFL has become a simple system: A great quarterback can get you far. Due to that, fans and media can get hyperfocused on that one position alone. For good reason, it is the straightest path to a possible championship.
It isn’t the only path, however.
San Francisco is a great model for what the Cleveland Browns may need to hang their hat on. With Baker Mayfield coming back from injury after a bad 2021 season, it can’t be assumed that he will rise to the same level as Mahomes, Burrow, Stafford, Josh Allen, Aaron Rodgers and the rest of that tier of quarterback.
That isn’t slandering Mayfield. The former Heisman Trophy winner was very good in 2020 and has had moments of very good play throughout his four seasons in the NFL. He just hasn’t been consistently great.
Neither has Garoppolo, yet the Niners are now one game away from another Super Bowl with him at the “most important position in football.” Except they aren’t winning because of him. Most importantly, they aren’t losing because of him either. (Carson Wentz’ last game of 2021 is a great example of losing because of a quarterback.)
In 2021, San Francisco was a better team than Cleveland but not by as much as you might expect given Mayfield’s injuries and struggles. The Niners were 13th in points scored, the Browns were 20th. San Francisco was 12th in passing yards per game, Cleveland was 27th. The Browns were fourth in rushing yards per game, the Niners were seventh.
The Niners were third in yards given up per game, the Browns were fifth. The Niners gave up 21.5 points per game, the Browns gave up 21.8.
Possibly surprising, even turnovers were close between the two teams with Cleveland having 22 and San Francisco having 24. The teams’ turnover margin was also very close with the Browns at -3 and the Niners at -4.
Neither team was particularly effective, on either side of the ball, on third downs.
Outside of passing offense (where San Francisco wasn’t exactly excelling but much higher than Cleveland), the biggest area of difference was actually field goals. The Niners converted 84.4% of their field goals (18th in the NFL) while the Browns converted a dismal 72.7% (last in the league).
Looking at Pro Football Focus’ team grades, it is clear that they like San Francisco more than Cleveland despite statistical similarities. They have the Niners graded second overall with the Browns 10th. On offense, due to the disparity in the passing game, is an even bigger margin with San Francisco at two and Cleveland at 14. On defense, things are much closer with the two teams sitting at fourth and fifth with the Niners having a slight 0.5 advantage in grading.
Statistically, Cleveland is quite similar to San Francisco. One team didn’t make the playoffs while the other is in their conference championship game. A slightly improved passing game (healthy Mayfield and an additional weapon or two) plus a drastically improved kicking game could make all the difference in the world.
