As the regular season draws to a close, we’ll take a look each Friday at a game likely to affect the playoff race, along with the teams whose fortunes are rising and falling. And, so we don’t neglect the also-rans, we’ll see which teams are in the hunt for next year’s No 1 pick.
Game of the week
Miami Dolphins (11-4) v Baltimore Ravens (12-3)
Story of the season: The unstoppable force meets the immovable object. Miami enter with the most explosive attack in the NFL guided by head coach Mike McDaniel. The 40-year-old offensive schemer has wrung every last drop of talent from his roster to record a league-best 411 yards per game that features the devastating speed of Tyreek Hill at wide receiver. His brilliance is impossible to overstate; 70 more yards will push him over 1,700 on the season and a career high at 29 years old. On the other side of the field stands John Harbuagh, 21 years McDaniel’s senior, wielding the league’s finest defense fresh from shredding the Super Bowl favorite San Francisco 49ers. Baltimore brutalized Brock Purdy as they have done to opposing quarterbacks all season while giving up the league’s fewest points per game at 16. So that should make the Ravens the favorites come February. That is then, though. Now, the prize for the only two teams in the AFC to have clinched a postseason spot so far: the all-important No 1 seed and a juicy first-round playoff bye.
What the Dolphins need to do to win: Miami have a mammoth task in maintaining their offensive machine without Jaylen Waddle due to a high ankle sprain. The Dolphins will miss his superior speed and skill as a No 2 mean defenses are kept from marking a No 1 – Hill – out of the game. A look at last season’s spectacular 42-38 win at Baltimore points to the quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s ability to rise in the face of extreme pressure. Miami’s QB threw six touchdowns on the day as his team roared back with 28 points in the final quarter. Hill’s unrivalled quickness still hands Miami an advantage over Baltimore’s secondary without Waddle though. Nobody is quicker so McDaniel can keep the Ravens running uphill by getting the ball into Hill’s hands and forcing the same errors in coverage that allowed such an epic comeback last season.
What the Ravens need to do to win: “It’s all about trying to make things look different and to lie to the quarterback as much as possible,” the Ravens secondary coach Chris Hewitt said in November. Baltimore’s disguised coverages cooked up by Hewitt and defensive coordinator, Mike Macdonald, put Purdy in an epic tailspin on Christmas Day and have been lethal all year leading to league best figures in sacks (53), takeaways (26) and a miserly average of 4.5 yards per play. Macdonald has to have faith in his unit’s ability to befuddle Miami into coughing up the ball by using their signature simulated pressure – making it look like the blitz is coming when it’s not – then arrowing Jadeveon Clowney in to ransack the offensive line. The pass rush may only blitz 21% of the time but win 46% of those efforts, the third-best rate in the NFL. Stay patient, pull the trigger at the right moment and Tagovailoa could fall, like most others have, under such head-swimming shadow play.
Playoff race risers and fallers
Rising: Detroit Lions
Head coach, Dan Campbell, has turned Detroit around completely since taking over. A once doomed franchise are 11-4 and can now boast winning their division for the first time in 30 years. The Lions’ impressive record also confirms a home playoff game for only the third time since 1957. The NFC’s No 1 seed is even still on the table but the No 2 spot is more realistic with the 49ers ahead if they win their final two games. To earn the second ticket they have to start by landing another milestone in their incredible season: beating the 10-5 Dallas Cowboys. Campbell should be confident as the Lions’ destructive offensive line coupled with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, the best one-two punch running back duo in the NFL (both on pace for 1,000 yards), are peaking while the Cowboys’ offense has misfired against Super Bowl contenders this year. Another win on Saturday night will have Detroit feeling more than mere contenders.
Falling: Kansas City Chiefs
The NFL’s perennial darlings. The Super Bowl champions. Patrick Mahomes ... losing to the Las Vegas Raiders. On paper, this is nothing to worry too much about. The Raiders have a good defense that interim head coach, Antonio Pierce, has improved and the year of parity dictates any team has a shot even against a juggernaut. Kansas City will still cruise into the playoffs, too. But, the manner of Mahomes’ struggles with Las Vegas highlight a malaise on offense he is now contributing to rather than battling to overcome. Throwing a pick-six on the play after your running back fumbles for a Raiders touchdown is sloppiness that has been an unlikely hallmark of a relatively poor season. After seven years of KC holding the crown, relying on a win over the Bengals or Chargers to clinch another AFC West title is unfamiliar ground for head coach, Andy Reid.
Race for No 1 pick
The Chicago Bears remain in the box seat for the top pick of the 2024 draft as owners of Carolina’s first round selection next year. The Panthers sit at 2-13 and very close to clinching the contest for Chicago while the 3-12 Arizona Cardinals are now the only realistic chance of snatching the first pick. The likelihood of the Panthers winning out: thin. But what is intriguing is how their offense continues to improve under interim head coach, Chris Tabor. The quarterback Bryce Young’s 312 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions in a 33-30 defeat to Green Bay were his best figures to date and should instil confidence for a statement victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday. The Jags must win to stay top of the AFC South. Four losses in succession, the latest of which allowing Tampa Bay to drop 30 points on them without reply, suggest they may struggle and therefore keep Arizona, defeat incoming against Philadelphia, in contention.
