As the regular season draws to a close, we’ll take a look each Friday at a game likely to affect the playoff race, along with the teams whose fortunes are rising and falling. And, so we don’t neglect the also-rans, we’ll see which teams are in the hunt for next year’s No 1 pick.
Game of the week
Buffalo Bills (10-6) v Miami Dolphins (11-5)
It all comes down to this. One last win secures the AFC East title and the No 2 seed in the AFC playoffs. Defeat for the Dolphins spells a disappointing slump to the sixth seed while the Bills could take a dramatic tumble into offseason oblivion. A similar fall to the sixth seed remains more likely but should the Bills lose, if Pittsburgh beat Baltimore (resting Lamar Jackson and a likely host of starters), Jacksonville topple Tennessee and Houston and Indianapolis do not play out a tie, then Buffalo wave goodbye entirely, a sequence of results that applies all-or-nothing stakes if it indeed does play out before this final regular season kick-off. But the Bills will be fearless either way after battling to decide their destiny with four straight wins in December. A pivotal twilight sprint from 6-6 that began with statement victories over playoff-bound Kansas City and Dallas. Another should feel within reach as the Bills take the field with a 48-20 thrashing over Miami already in their back pocket from Week 4. The Dolphins need to discover their Super Bowl credentials quickly by rebounding after last week’s subjugation at the feet of the Ravens.
What the Bills need to do to win: Head coach Sean McDermott said the Bills need Stefon Diggs “down the stretch” in a press conference on Wednesday. The comments coming after questions were raised over the wide receiver’s lack of production over the past four games. Diggs has fewer than 50 yards while playing 65% or fewer plays in each of them. It is tough to produce when you are not on the field so Buffalo might look to put a little more faith in their dynamic pass catcher to tear into Miami’s soft secondary as he did with 120 yards and three touchdowns earlier in the season. An increased involvement could also help ease the burden on Josh Allen’s rushing touchdowns (eight in the past five games) while cleaning up their struggles with drops and conversions in the red zone from last week. The defense were flying as they produced four takeaways (one a pick six) in the first half against the Patriots while the offense flopped with two touchdowns from five visits inside the 20-yard line. Diggs seeing the ball should increase efficiency, a task made easier by Miami’s elite pass rusher Bradley Chubb joining their long list of injured players.
What the Dolphins need to do to win: Miami can enjoy suddenly being tagged as underdogs to help inspire a victory that would shake off the feeling they struggle against bigger teams. The pressure is on the Bills to continue their hot streak both in season and against Miami after winning 10 of the past 11 meetings. Any complacency needs to be capitalised on as the Dolphins will still be confident of an upset considering their dominant 7-1 home record. To do so coordinator Vic Fangio has to tighten up his defense. Their heads were down from Baltimore’s opening drive, a sense of defeat Lamar Jackson drummed into them to the tune of five touchdowns whistling overhead. The way to lift spirits immediately is by staying laser-focused to intercept errant throws from Allen. It could be a dangerous game but Miami’s strength is their run defense, first overall at home with 72.3 yards allowed per game, so continue to force the pass and errors will come, especially if you can pressure the quarterback.
Playoff race risers and fallers
Rising: Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts
Saturday night’s main event featuring the Texans at Colts provides a devilishly simple aperitif to Sunday’s mathematical meltdown. The AFC’s pretenders have all fallen away to banish the ifs, buts and maybes over rookies, backups, new head coaches, disappointments, injuries and hiring Jeff Saturday to leave Houston and Indianapolis one win from the playoffs as the loser fades to black. It is a triumph of coaching from Houston’s DeMeco Ryans and his counterpart Shane Steichen to have reached this juncture considering the turnaround last season’s 3-13-1 Texans and 4-12-1 Colts required. Barring Kevin Stefanski’s genius gamble on Joe Flacco, it would be dealer’s choice on which of the pair would be coach of the year. The key battle pitches Indy’s quarterback Gardner Minshew in having to keep up with his opposite number, the likely offensive rookie of the year CJ Stroud. The Colts defense are a bottom-10 outfit so Minshew best be ready to go toe-to-toe with Stroud to see who flinches first. The kicker for the eventual victor: sitting back and hoping your wildcard gets a free upgrade from winning the AFC South, if Jacksonville lose at Tennessee.
Falling: Philadelphia Eagles
“Defeat incoming against Philadelphia,” a prognosticator wrote of Arizona’s impending fate in these pages last week. The Eagles were then, of course, embarrassed by the lowly Cardinals. After leading 21-6 at half-time, Philadelphia cratered a 35-31 loss. Matt Patricia’s move to take over the defensive controls was surely meant to shake off Sean Desai’s struggles and inspire a talent-rich roster but instead crescendoed by allowing an objectively lesser team score 29 points in 24 minutes. A playoff spot was secured off the back of their early run to 10-1 but the NFC East crown and the second seed have slipped through their fingers through poor coaching decisions and player infighting. What should have been an ignition point in the playoffs against one of the NFC’s low-hanging wildcards looks likely to be a tricky road trip to Tampa Bay. Win that and they could next face the 49ers at Levi’s Stadium. If Dallas beat Washington to clinch the division, then Philadelphia’s chances look grim.
Race for No 2 pick
As it stands three teams hold a 4-12 record but owing to the strength of schedule faced Washington have the second selection, New England are third and Arizona fourth. A lot can still change with the 5-11 Giants able to claim the second pick if those three franchises win and New York lose to Philadelphia. The Commanders waved the white flag a while back though, poising them to grab a new quarterback in Drake Maye or Caleb Willliams should he fall into their lap at pick two. An eighth defeat in succession ensures that outcome against the Cowboys. Arizona and New England are where things get trickier. The Cardinals face the Seattle Seahawks who must win to have any chance of making the playoffs, while New England host the New York Jets which essentially amounts to a Super Bowl for Bill Belichick in what could be his final game in charge of the Patriots. Despite a dearth of talent on offense, the Patriots are favorites to earn an incredible 16th win in succession over the Jets on Sunday. The Giants could pull off a huge coup in failing upwards for the third pick if Arizona can finish strong at home to Seattle.
