The 2023 NFL Playoffs have pared down this winter’s list of Super Bowl contenders to its final four. They are, for the most part, who we expected them to be.
The only upset in the Divisional Round saw the Cincinnati Bengals bully-ball their way to a 17-point win and end the Buffalo Bills’ season. Otherwise, the Philadelphia Eagles coasted to victory, the Kansas City Chiefs overcame a Patrick Mahomes injury to keep the Jaguars at arm’s length and the San Francisco 49ers held on long enough for Mike McCarthy and Dak Prescott to finally finish poking the beehive they’d been harassing all season en route to a self-sabotaging loss.
That leaves four very good teams, none of whom would be a surprise to see playing for the right to pound beers and blast music from the tops of buses while soaking in the adulations of their local fans. Who has the easiest path to the Vince Lombardi Trophy? It all starts with …
4
Kansas City Chiefs
This ranking comes with the caveat that Mahomes will be less mobile than usual thanks to his high ankle sprain and that he’s facing the worst possible defensive coordinator — Cincinnati’s Lou Anarumo — to be less than 100 percent against. A sore Mahomes means less time to throw against a play caller who ranks among the league’s best when it comes to week-to-week gameplan adjustments.
Even if Mahomes can’t extend plays like he typically does the Chiefs still have a viable path to victory as home underdogs. Their Divisional Round win over the Jaguars was predicated on powerful pass rushes that limited Trevor Lawrence’s already scant time in the pocket and stifling Jacksonville’s downfield passing game. They can have similar success in the AFC title game against an improved Bengals offensive line that’s been dented heavily by injury.
At the same time, Cincinnati is well equipped to plan around pressure in the pocket — that basically describes its 2022 playoff run — and Joe Burrow and his cast of wideouts is significantly better than what the Jags had to offer. The Bengals are 3-0 in their last three games against Andy Reid’s team, all by three points and all since 2022. With that in mind, Kansas City holds the toughest road to the Super Bowl — even if it wouldn’t surprise anyone if they made it anyway.
3
San Francisco 49ers
Brock Purdy struggled against pressure in his Divisional Round matchup against the Dallas Cowboys. Now he gets a Philadelphia Eagles pass rush that finished the 2022 regular season with 15 more sacks than any other team in the league.
Not great!
Fortunately, the 49ers are used to playing around the limitations of a flawed quarterback. After using early deep shots to discombobulate the Seahawks, San Francisco went back to its bread and butter and eventually pulled away from the Cowboys via a combination of handoffs, short passes and long runs after the catch. Paired with a bend-don’t-break defense, this was enough to escape with a 19-12 win.
The Eagles are not the Cowboys. They’re better equipped to turn those moments when Purdy panics and runs back toward his own end zone into drive-killing losses. They have a quarterback who can spot linebacker coverage rather than throwing his way into stupid interceptions. Their well of impact skill players runs deeper than chucking it up to CeeDee Lamb and hoping for the best.
But San Francisco has the league’s top defense and a real chance to stifle Jalen Hurts. Sunday’s game could be decided by who makes the biggest play and the 49ers are loaded with playmakers. There’s a very real possibility we’re on the doorstep of a Super Bowl 54 rematch.
2
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati rolled into Buffalo and punched the Bills in the mouth, dominating the home team on both sides of the trenches and ending Josh Allen’s season on a sad note. It was a performance that bolstered Joe Burrow’s resume as an elite NFL quarterback, gave his offensive coordinator Brian Callahan room to shine and served as another example of Anarumo’s ability to wring the most from his defense.
three guys lined up to the right. three guys jump on the threat of a Chase screen. Brian Callahan was in the Bills heads with this one pic.twitter.com/1avlbWq2yz
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) January 22, 2023
Cincinnati has so many ways to hurt opponents on offense. The Bengals averaged more than five yards per carry last week in the Buffalo snow and, when Ja’Marr Chase drew extra defenders, consistently found openings to gash a top 10 defense. 86 percent of their first downs that day resulted in either another first down or a touchdown. Next up is Kansas City and its comparatively middling defense.
The bigger matchup, of course, is a hobbled Mahomes vs. the secondary that picked him off twice the last time these teams met in a conference championship game. Mahomes rode Travis Kelce to 10 catches (on 11 targets) for 95 yards and a touchdown that day, so expect Anarumo to invest as many skill points as he can into stopping the Hall of Fame tight end. Kelce’s production could be the difference between a trip to Super Bowl 57 and an extra two weeks of vacation time.
1
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia didn’t have the toughest Divisional Round matchup when it drew a New York Giants team it had already beaten twice. The trilogy capper left no doubt who the superior team was; the Eagles mopped the floor with their overachieving division rival in a 38-7 rout.
That performance solidified what we already knew about Philly. It has a seemingly inexhaustible supply of skill players who can light you up — five different players found the end zone last week and none were A.J. Brown or Miles Sanders. It also has a dominant pass rush that makes life easier for a similarly destructive secondary. Daniel Jones was sacked 49 times this season. Nine of those — nearly 20 percent — came in two games against the Eagles.
Those Eagles also get to play at home, where Jalen Hurts’ only loss came in Week 10 against the Washington Commanders in a game ultimately defined by three fourth quarter turnovers. As good as the 49ers defense is, something like that probably isn’t going to happen twice. Philadelphia has the clearest path to Super Bowl 57. As such, they stand alone atop the NFL’s final four.
