We’re getting tantalisingly close to do-or-die playoff action as we reach the final week of the NFL regular season.
The playoff picture in the AFC conference looks near-certain, with Patrick Mahomes leading the Kansas City Chiefs to the No 1 seed ahead of the Buffalo Bills, and only a handful of teams able to force their way into the seventh and final wild card spot in the remaining week.
Yet the situation for those teams chasing divisional titles are much tighter in the NFC, with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons going for the NFC South crown, while the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings duke it out for the North.
But plenty can change before Sunday 5 January, when the final regular season matches take place.
The Independent now takes a look at the NFL playoff picture – and who can stay in the race for the Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans on 9 February.
AFC
The six teams who have definitely qualified for the playoffs are:
The Kansas City Chiefs have locked up the No 1 seed in the AFC, meaning they receive a bye to the divisional round – and will play that match at home.
Andy Reid’s side, the defending champions as they go for three NFL titles in a row, will also play the AFC Championship match at home should they reach that stage.
The Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans have already won their divisons, guaranteeing a wild card round match at home, and the Bills have sealed the No 2 seed, which means home games all the way to the Super Bowl unless the AFC Championship clash is against Kansas City.
The Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers are battling it out for the AFC North title, although the runner-up will still make the play-offs as a wild card, while the Los Angeles Chargers sealed a wild card spot by thrashing the New England Patriots on Saturday of week 17.
Who is in the box seat?
The Broncos are one win away from a play-off spot but that has been true for each of the last two weeks when they lost to the Chargers and then the Cincinnati Bengals. They host the Chiefs on the final weekend and defeat would put them in real danger of missing a play-off spot but it is likely to be a much-changed Kansas City team, given they have already locked up the No 1 seed in the AFC.
Who is still in contention?
Each of these two teams must win their remaining match to reach 9-8 and then hope the Broncos lose to the Chiefs, dropping Denver to 9-8, to give themselves a chance of sneaking into the playoffs. If that happens, it comes down to tiebreakers. The Colts were eliminated after their 45-33 defeat to the New York Giants on Sunday.
In the case that the Broncos lose to the Chiefs:
Who is definitely out?
NFC
The six teams who have definitely qualified for the playoffs are:
Three NFC North teams will be in the play-offs and it’s a shootout between the Lions and Vikings for the NFC North title (who play each next weekend in the final match of the regular season), with the Packers guaranteed a wild card spot. Whoever wins the NFC North will also lick up the No 1 seed, giving themselves a bye through the first round of the play-offs and home advantage throughout the postseason.
The Eagles won the NFC East by thrashing the Dallas Cowboys over the weekend, while the Washington Commanders sealed their play-off spot with a 30-24 win over the Atlanta Falcons to book a wild card spot. The Rams are also there after beating the Arizona Cardinals at SoFi Stadium on Saturday night and other results going their way on Sunday.
Who is in the box seat?
Between the Falcons and the Buccaneers in the NFC South, it’s all to play for. Atlanta lost to Washington on Sunday night in a massive match with huge consequences and are now on the back foot, with the Buccaneers beating the Carolina Panthers convincingly.
The Buccaneers host the Saints (5-11) on Sunday night. Win and they win the NFC South and are through to the play-offs. If they slip up, the Falcons just need to beat the lowly Panthers at home to snatch the title.
Who is still in contention?
Who is definitely out?
When do the playoffs start?
The wildcard round – featuring six matches – starts on Saturday 11 January.
The divisional rounds are on the weekend starting on 18 January, with the conference championships a week later.
Super Bowl LIX is on Sunday 9 February.
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