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Blake Schuster

NFL picks against the spread, Week 18: betting on backups, incentives and playoff hopes

Somehow, someway, we made it to Week 18.

By Sunday night most of the league’s fans will be looking forward to draft season while the rest focus on the postseason. We just don’t know what that full picture looks like yet.

It’s an odd week to bet on the NFL overall as teams with plenty to play for matchup against teams looking to play spoiler. Backups and third-stringers line up across from starters looking to hit their contract incentives. All of that is taken into consideration as we pick against the spread one last time in the regular season.

Name Last Week YTD
Christian D’Andrea 7-9 131-118-7
Carolina Darney 12-4 129-120-7
Prince Grimes 10-6 127-122-7
Blake Schuster 11-5 120-129-7
Charles Curtis N/A 118-115-7
Robert Zeglinski N/A 116-117-7

Steelers at Ravens (Saturday)

Opening Line: Ravens -3.5

Schuster: Ravens +3.5

Taking the Steelers feels the only move with the Ravens likely resting every major contributor, but Baltimore is just deeper and more talented so take the points.

Grimes: Steelers -3.5

I’m tempted to roll with Snoop and the Ravens, but Pittsburgh is the smart call.

Curtis: Steelers -3.5

The Steelers have something to play for. The Ravens will be benching their starters. Easy pick.

Darney: Steelers +3.5

At this point, why not.

D’Andrea: Ravens +3.5

Baltimore’s backups will come to play against a division rival helmed by, and this is important, Mason by-god Rudolph.

Texans at Colts (Saturday)

Opening Line: Colts -1.5

Schuster: Texans -1

The Game of the Week goes to C.J. Stroud as the baby Texans grow up right in front of our eyes.

Grimes: Texans -1

C.J. Stroud continues his legend with a playoff berth.

Curtis: Texans -1

I think Houston is the better team here.

Darney: Texans -1

This one is more interesting than I would have expected, but I think Stroud is the difference here.

D’Andrea: Colts +1

Two evenly matched teams. I’ll take the home side laying a point.

Browns at Bengals

Opening Line: Bengals -3.5

Schuster: Bengals -7

Who is going to put up points for Cleveland if Joe Flacco is resting? This is a sentence I never thought I would write, let alone actually mean it.

Grimes: Browns +7

The Browns are too well-coached for me to lay this many points, even with the backups.

Curtis: Browns +7

I know Cleveland will be benching its starters but this game should be closer, right?

Darney: Bengals -7

I’m afraid to look up what this quarterback matchup will be.

D’Andrea: Bengals -7

I’ve seen Cleveland’s non-Flacco quarterbacks. They aren’t on Jake Browning’s level. Man, what a weird sentence to write.

Panthers at Buccaneers

Opening Line: Panthers -2.5

Schuster: Buccaneers -4.5

Give David Tepper plenty of space for when this one gets out of hand and he starts throwing things again.

Grimes: Buccaneers -4.5

Tampa should be angry after last week, and ready to stomp Carolina en route to the NFC South crown.

Curtis: Buccaneers -4.5

This spread should be larger than it is.

Darney: Buccaneers -4.5

Why did the line start in Carolina’s favor? The Panthers are just…a mess.

D’Andrea: Buccaneers -4.5

Tampa needs the win to win the NFC South. The Panthers just lost to the Jaguars so thoroughly their owner tossed a drink at some of Duval County’s finest.

Jets at Patriots

Opening Line: Jets -1

Schuster: Patriots -1.5

Look, if this is Belichick’s last game in New England there is just no way he’s going out on a loss to the Jets. Specifically, these Jets.

Grimes: Patriots -1.5

New England is playing the more inspired football between these teams.

Curtis: Patriots -1.5

Win one more for Bill Belichick AND ruin their draft spot a little? Perfect ending to their terrible season.

Darney: Patriots -1.5

No thank you!

D’Andrea: Patriots -1.5

There’s no way Bill Belichick’s final game as New England’s head coach is a home loss to Trevor Siemian and the New York Jets.

Vikings at Lions

Opening Line: Lions -2.5

Schuster: Lions -3.5

Detroit beat this Vikings team by six on the road two weeks ago. They’ll cover at home and head into the playoffs on a high.

Grimes: Lions -3.5. Detroit wants to go into the playoffs on a high note.

Curtis: Lions -3.5

Seems like Dan Campbell will play his starters soooo …

Darney: Lions -3.5

The Lions are fun, and that’s fun for everyone (except the Vikings this week).

D’Andrea: Lions -3.5

Dan Campbell doesn’t coach his guys to take a week off.

Jaguars at Titans

Opening Line: Jaguars -2.5

Schuster: Titans +5.5

This might be the last time we see Derrick Henry in a Titans jersey as he prepares for free agency. Hard to see him losing this one at home.

Grimes: Titans +5.5

Tennessee will relish the role of playoff spoiler.

Curtis: Jaguars -5.5

The Jags have something to play for.

Darney: Jaguars -5.5

Feels like the Jags will use the pressure to come through in this one.

D’Andrea: Titans +5.5

Weird things happen in the AFC South, especially when the Jaguars are involved.

Falcons at Saints

Opening Line: Saints -2.5

Schuster: Saints -3

It’s OK, Atlanta fans. It’s almost over.

Grimes: Saints -3

This division doesn’t make sense, but I’ll roll with the better defense.

Curtis: Saints -3

The Falcons have been a punchline all season, and I think the Saints are better.

Darney: Saints -3

I refuse to pick the Falcons ever again.

D’Andrea: Saints -3

New Orleans typically handles its business.

Cowboys at Commanders

Opening Line: Cowboys -3

Schuster: Commanders +13

I’m with Prince. A backdoor cover at home is pretty much the only thing that makes sense for Washington.

Grimes: Commanders +13

Dallas wants to win, but it also wants to stay healthy. Starters get pulled early, and Washington gets the backdoor cover.

Curtis: Cowboys -13

I assume Dallas will play its starters all day?

Darney: Cowboys -13

Commanders will close the gap late with Cowboys starters out, but still lose by like 14-17 points.

D’Andrea: Commanders +13

Washington won’t play its veterans much, but there’s a hungry group of young players working to leave a mark with the new ownership. That won’t be enough to win, but should be enough to make the final score respectable.

Chiefs at Chargers

Opening Line: Chiefs -2

Schuster: Chargers -3.5

Want to see how valuable Mahomes is? Check out the Chiefs’ offense without him this week against a porous defense.

Grimes: Chargers -3.5

I hate the hook here, but Patrick Mahomes is out so LA gets the nod.

Curtis: Chargers -3.5

Sure, why not, with the Chiefs having nothing to play for with their playoff spot sewn up.

Darney: Chiefs +3.5

Yeah, Mahomes is out, but have you seen the Chargers?

D’Andrea: Chiefs +3.5

I don’t care who’s throwing passes for the Chiefs when the opposing QB is Easton Stick.

Broncos at Raiders

Opening Line: Broncos -1

Schuster: Raiders -2.5

One more resume line for Antonio Pierce, who deserves the full-time job.

Grimes: Raiders -2.5

No Jarrett Stidham revenge game here.

Curtis: Raiders -2.5

I think Vegas is better.

Darney: Raiders -2.5

Honestly surprised the line is this close.

D’Andrea: Raiders -2.5

Vegas wants to lock in Antonio Pierce at head coach. This could be a statement game in his favor.

Rams at 49ers

Opening Line: 49ers -7

Schuster: 49ers -4

The Niners won’t have Brock Purdy or Christian McCaffrey but their defense is good enough to cover against a Rams team without Matthew Stafford or Cooper Kupp in action.

Grimes: Rams +4

Hard game to predict with starters unlikely to play much if at all.

Curtis: Rams +4

Neither team may play its top players, so take the points.

Darney: 49ers -4

A lot of SF players will be out, but I still think they can win by a touchdown.

D’Andrea: 49ers -4

Good or bad, the Niners generally find a way to beat the Rams. And since anyone can operate Kyle Shanahan’s offense, I’ll roll with a diminished San Francisco team over Carson Wentz.

Bears at Packers

Opening Line: Packers -2

Schuster: Bears +3

The Bears win straight up, too, if only to complicate their future decision on Justin Fields.

Grimes: Packers -3

The Bears are playing really well, but the Packers need this one.

Curtis: Packers -3

I worry about this spread a lot, which might scream points, but Green Bay should be a playoff team and play like one.

Darney: Packers -3

This one was tough, but Green Bay at home.

D’Andrea: Bears +3

The Bears’ have the top-ranked defense since their bye week. Justin Fields is thriving in a different offense than the one Green Bay shut down in Week 1. This has all the trappings of pain at Lambeau Field.

Seahawks at Cardinals

Opening Line: Seahawks -5

Schuster: Seahawks -2.5

I’m not writing off Geno Smith with a playoff berth still possible.

Grimes: Seahawks -2.5

I’m predicting a big game for Geno Smith and Seattle’s passing attack.

Curtis: Seahawks -2.5

Seattle is meh but they’re still hoping for the postseason.

Darney: Seahawks -2.5

A lot on the line for Seattle

D’Andrea: Seahawks -2.5

Seattle is frustrating, but also the team that *needs* the win.

Bills at Dolphins (Sunday Night)

Opening Line: Dolphins -1.5

Schuster: Dolphins -3

One last attempt for Miami to show it can hang with the contenders in primetime.

Grimes: Bills -3

No Bradley Chubb for the Dolphins, who could also be without Xavien Howard and Jaylen Waddle. Raheem Mostert is banged up too. Injuries just hitting Miami at the wrong time.

Curtis: Bills -3

I think this is a game they really focus on and run up the score in.

Darney: Bills -3

Injuries, injuries, injuries in Miami. Chance for the Bills to make a statement.

D’Andrea: Bills -3

I don’t trust either team, but Buffalo has quality wins and Miami does not (exception: beating a Cowboys team that can’t handle anyone halfway decent on the road).

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