Week 2 brought some stabilization to some of the opening week’s surprising developments.
The Kansas City Chiefs avoided an 0-2 start by slowing down the Jacksonville Jaguars’ hype train. The Buffalo Bills proved all they needed to get back on track was a visit from Josh McDaniels. The NFC South gave way to three undefeated teams which, OK, that one is still a little wild.
There are much weirder currents rippling to the surface beyond the sudden competence of what was formerly the league’s weakest division. New developments, some concerning and others encouraging, have given us new topics to debate. In a league where it’s never too early to make Super Bowl plans or abandon all hope for your team, there’s perpetually something about which we can needlessly worry despite knowing answers are on the horizon.
So what are we overreacting to after Week 2? Well, four things stood out, including the Rams’ rookie of the year candidate and the sudden, steep declines of the Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Chargers.
1
Puka Nacua is Cooper Kupp 2.0
Two games, 25 catches. The fifth round pick leads the NFL in receptions and has more after two weeks than any other debutant in league history. N’Keal Harry, for comparison’s sake, was a first round pick who had 24 total catches in the 2019 and 2021 seasons combined. That’s not really germane to this conversation but it’s still important to bring up just how bad Bill Belichick is at drafting wide receivers.
Anyway, Nacua. He’s a monster. He’s on pace for 200-plus receptions and 2,200 receiving yards this fall. He’s moved up to third place in the offensive rookie of the year odds at +800, behind Bijan Robinson and Anthony Richardson. Those odds will only get shorter if he can perform at even 75 percent of this level through the rest of the season.
Verdict: Nah, he’s more Michael Thomas 2.0
Nacua has 35 targets in two games and hit 20 — a ludicrous number — in his second game as a pro. 10 of those came in the final 16:21 after the 49ers took a 20-17 lead, so it’s fair to assume those numbers will drop when the Rams aren’t playing from behind. That seemed like it would be the case the majority of the time coming into 2023, particularly with only two players who’d started 10 games or more for LA returning to the defense, but the Rams have been more competitive than expected and Kyren Williams has been good enough as a tailback to suggest there will be moments where Sean McVay eases off the gas.
But even when that happens someone is going to have to catch the ball. There aren’t many viable options in Los Angeles, especially with Cooper Kupp out indefinitely due to a hamstring injury. Tutu Atwell has been a useful WR2 next to Nacua, but Van Jefferson and Ben Skowronek have six catches between them and Tyler Higbee remains Tyler Higbee; a William H. Macy type in a blockbuster offense.
Nacua’s route tree changed slightly against the Niners. After running four routes that covered 15-plus yards from the line of scrimmage in Week 1, he only had one vs. San Francisco (and it only covered 16 yards without ending in a completion). What we saw Sunday was some prime Michael Thomas stuff, trading off explosive routes for short-range reliability to great effect. That might get you clowned by Carlton Davis online, but it works.
That leaves the question of whether he can keep getting open as opponents gather tape on him. That’ll cut into his production, but there’s reason to believe he’ll still be productive. Plenty of Nacua’s targets come on short-range attacks with his defender playing off him, creating a cushion for a low-risk, minimal gains on quick ins and drag routes. But once the 49ers drew up closer to the line of scrimmage he showed off strong route skills capable of creating his own space.
The 49ers were mostly content to let Nacua dink and dunk away in order to ensure he wouldn’t beat them over the top as part of a conversative gameplan on the road. In the second half defensive coordinator Steve Wilks buttressed that soft coverage with zone help from the inside, which managed to limit his impact for the third quarter (two catches on three targets for 21 yards).
The Rams abandoned the run down 10 in the fourth quarter and threw a bunch of four-wide formations at the Niners, which helped get Nacua back on his historic pace. He was effective on the sideline and in the slot, which only scores him more points in Sean McVay’s offense.
So ultimately, yeah, Nacua got 20 targets because his team was trailing and San Francisco was more worried about getting beaten over the top than it was about shutting down his five-yard routes. That’s unlikely to happen again, but the rookie showcased the skill to be a consistent contributor even with increased defensive scrutiny. That may mean no more 15-catch afternoons, but he should be good for a string of solid performances throughout 2023.
2
The Denver Broncos haven't changed
Sean Payton opened 2023, his first season with the Broncos, as a home favorite in back-to-back games. He led both going into the fourth quarter. And now, despite playing lower-middle class opponents in the Las Vegas Raiders and Washington Commanders, he is 0-2.
This year’s Denver team has started worse than Nathaniel Hackett’s squad by virtue of not getting to play the hopeless Houston Texans in Week 2 (a game Hackett still nearly lost). Russell Wilson is playing, statistically, his best football as a Bronco and it hasn’t made a difference. His offense isn’t coming through in the clutch, his defense can’t generate important stops and Denver looks destined to be eminently mockable for the second-straight season.
Verdict: Fair.
Payton has had to take a different tack when it comes to managing the back end of Wilson’s career than he did with Drew Brees. It’s clear Russ can still fire off big passes and make pretty throws downfield. It’s how Marvin Mims averaged 56.5 yards per target last week.
All day. 💨@DangeRussWilson ➡️ @marvindmims
📺: CBS or @paramountplus pic.twitter.com/9rw9BkUOxz
— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) September 17, 2023
But what Russ has that late-stage Brees did not is the instinct to run face-first into danger. Wilson’s desire to extend plays and bail out his offense can put him on tilt, leading to bad decisions that, honestly, probably should have turned out worse than his two turnovers through two games.
Russ, buddy, why? pic.twitter.com/YLdUl9v9Mc
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) September 17, 2023
This is how Wilson has a 108.5 passer rating, a 5:1 touchdown:interception ratio and ranks in the top 10 when it comes to expected points added (EPA) per play and still feels thoroughly untrustable. He’s fallen apart in the second half each game this season, unable to improvise in the ways that made his Seahawks a persistent threat for nearly a decade.
What’s more: the protection that helped enable his slide in 2022 hasn’t noticeably improved, and Wilson’s penchant for running into traffic in hopes of bailing out a play has his sack rate at a brutal 12 percent (nine in two games). He’s getting hit more than he did last season, when he led the league in sacks taken and yards lost.
The end result is empty numbers and a winless start. Turning this around will mean convincing Wilson to fundamentally change his game. At the very least, bringing in a well-regarded, Super Bowl-winning head coach should have an easier time selling that than Hackett ever could.
The other side of the equation is a defense that’s allowed a 108.4 passer rating this season despite facing Jimmy Garoppolo and Sam Howell. The Broncos’ defense has a bottom five pressure rate and afforded both those quarterbacks enough time in the pocket to pick apart a solid secondary. That’s a concern that could sink this team even if Wilson comes back online — imagine giving Patrick Mahomes or Justin Herbert three-plus seconds in the pocket — and simply adds another layer of disappointment to an 0-2 start that could portend another losing season in Colorado.
3
The Cincinnati Bengals are doomed (or maybe great!)
The Bengals have started off their season 0-2 four times since 2017. It happened just last year and served as the foundation for a 12-4 season and a trip to the AFC title game. But the three winless starts before that led to three losing seasons and, more concerningly, a 6-25-1 record when they came under current head coach Zac Taylor.
This creates the impression Cincinnati can’t merely be OK this fall. Joe Burrow’s lingering calf injury and a defense that’s given up 25.5 points per game suggests that, on this range of extremes, this year’s Bengals team is set to slide to the lower end of the spectrum.
Verdict: Slight overreaction, depending on Burrow’s health.
Burrow hasn’t been himself this season, but he’s looked a lot like the guy who showed up to start the year in 2022. Through two games last season he had just a 74.1 passer rating, was averaging 44.5 throws per game and an average target distance of 6.9 yards downfield.
That’s bad in general and well below his career averages (99.1 rating, 7.6 air yards per pass), but it’s not far from his 2023 start. In two games, he has a 70.6 rating and while he’s throwing less — 36 passes per game — those tosses are only going, on average, 6.7 yards beyond the line of scrimmage.
Burrow’s lack of downfield volume stuck through the 2022 season and his 6.7 air yards per attempt were down significantly from the 8.3 he’d averaged his first two seasons as a pro. His deep balls dropped from 62 in 2021 to 48 the following year. He threw more intermediate passes (10-19 yards) than ever but did so less accurately.
Guess what? It didn’t matter. The Bengals still won the AFC North and handled their business en route to the conference championship game.
History suggests Cincinnati can still thrive with a short-range passing game because of the playmakers up and down the roster. But there’s still reason for concern. Without being able to step into the ball Burrow has gone 0-12 on pass attempts that travel at least 15 yards downfield, per Next Gen Stats.
Ja’Marr Chase’s average catch comes fewer than three yards beyond the line of scrimmage, leaving him in a world where he has just 70 receiving yards on 17 targets. That’s awful, and it allows opponents to compress the field and increase the number of defenders crowding the short throws that have made up the bulk of the Bengals’ offense.
Cincinnati has held the ball for fewer than 26 minutes per game, overtaxing a defense left to work young, inexperienced contributors into the lineup following the departures of reliable starters like Jessie Bates III and Vonn Bell (Eli Apple also left. I’m not sure if anyone has noticed). That’s led to sizable deficits early and the pressure of playing catch-up with a quarterback who, at the moment, can’t make the big throws vital to his offense.
There’s a balm there as well, as defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo has proven repeatedly he’s capable of piecing together a unit that looks average on paper but comes up huge in big moments. The fix is simple enough. Get Burrow healthy, get his deep and intermediate game flowing to create room for the entire offense and then possess the ball long enough to help a defense that’s still piecing things together in the secondary.
It happened in 2022, albeit without the specter of a nagging injury that could last all year dragging the star quarterback down. But if Burrow can return to something approaching his 2021 form, Cincinnati will be fine.
4
The Chargers are going to waste the final seasons of Justin Herbert's cost-controlled era
Herbert signed a $262 million contract extension this offseason, but the salary cap ramifications of his new deal don’t kick in until 2025. He’ll count $8.4 million against the spending limit this season and $19.3 million against it in 2024 — two inexpensive outlays in a league where Ryan Tannehill counts $36.6 million against the Tennessee Titans’ cap this fall.
The Chargers have, reasonably, made moves to maximize the spending room this creates. They’ve added veterans like JC Jackson and Khalil Mack to the defense, then used the latitude that created to spend premier draft capital on offensive linemen and playmakers to build a well-rounded roster capable of challenging the Kansas City Chiefs for the AFC West title.
This led to a playoff berth in 2022. Then one of the league’s most embarrassing postseason collapses. And now an 0-2 record marred by blown fourth quarter leads. This is all very familiar for the franchise’s fans. A team that’s a few bounces and bad playcalls away from being atop the AFC West is once again lending its name to a specific brand of heartache: Chargersing.
Verdict: Not an overreaction.
Bringing Kellen Moore in to run the offense has led to positive results — namely a more adventurous, more balanced passing game — but it’s still fair to question the coaching decisions above him. Head coach Brandon Staley has erred on the side of caution when it comes to his star quarterback in big situations, notably in a pair of fourth-and-short situations near midfield against the Titans where he opted to punt rather than trust his team in clutch moments.
Staley is firmly on the hot seat and appears to understand this, but it’s at least justifiable that he doesn’t trust his defense to handle a short field. The Chargers D was the backdrop to one of the best games of Tua Tagovailoa’s career in Week 1 and then spent Week 2 making Ryan Tannehill — a disaster in the Titans’ season opener — one of the league’s most efficient quarterbacks. No team in the NFL has given up more yards in two games and only two can top the 2.91 points per drive allowed by Los Angeles.
The culprit is a passing defense that stands above anyone else in sheer crapulence through two games. The efforts of the pass rush — five sacks Sunday! — has been erased by a secondary allowing 9.7 yards, on average, every time an opposing quarterback throws the ball. But Staley isn’t exactly helping his squad out. His clock and challenge management is suspect and actively served to help the Titans last week (see the stoppage called that allowed Tennessee to insert Derrick Henry, the last man you’d want to see in a short yardage situation, back into the lineup for an overtime third-and-1).
Replacing Staley feels like an obvious first step if the Chargers underwhelm, but it may not be enough to fix that defense. Los Angeles may need to make some wholesale changes, just in time for its franchise quarterback to start getting expensive. Wasting the inexpensive years of a game-changing passer’s career thanks to poor management and various slights from the injury gods? That would be some long-term Chargersing.
