Every offensive play in the NFL provides a trove of statistics accounting for the yards gained or lost on every throw or run. Quantifying defensive performance has always been a more difficult proposition outside of splash plays like sacks and takeaways. The official tackle stats tracked by statisticians with binoculars in the press box can't account for the quality of the play and tackles that are missed.
The NFL Next Gen Stats department sought a new measurement based on the loads of data generated by tracking equipment to quantify nearly every aspect of the tackle. This initiative aims to take tackling quantitatively to an entirely new level of analysis by leveraging data to get stats like missed tackles, group tackles, and evaluating the quality of tackles.
The NFL Next Gen Stats group has collaborated with machine learning engineers from Amazon Web Services to develop an advanced stats model focused on which players are best at making tackles and which are best at breaking them. By tracking the location and speed of all 11 defensive players every one-tenth of a second on each play through player tracking data gathered by chips in the players’ pads, the model can measure the probability that a tackle is made.
In the 2023 season, Zaire Franklin of Indianapolis led the NFL with 24 missed tackles, while safety Kevin Byard was the most efficient tackler with a 96.8% success rate. On the offensive side, Travis Etienne, Christian McCaffrey, and Kyren Williams were the best at breaking tackles among running backs with the most touches and opportunities.
San Francisco’s Deebo Samuel led all receivers with 38 missed tackles, while Lamar Jackson topped all quarterbacks with 27. The best tackling team in Week 1 was the New England Patriots, who had a 94.3% efficiency rate in their upset win over Cincinnati.
The NextGen Stats group can go beyond missed and broken tackles and use other machine learning stats developed with AWS like the expected yards models to measure how many yards over expectation a defensive player saved or gave up on each tackle attempt with the same for offensive players.
Stats can also track how often teams swarm to the ball with more than three defenders on a tackle and which defenders excel or struggle at different types of tackles like open-field ones, to chase down tackles to downhill tackles with defenders crashing toward the line of scrimmage.
The NFL continues to enhance its toolkit of statistics to support any unfolding story on the field, whether offensive, defensive, running, or passing. The goal is to have a well-rounded toolkit that quantifies the results of various aspects of the game.
