The odds are against anybody other than a quarterback winning the NFL MVP award.
Historically speaking, it’s nearly impossible for a defender to take the trophy. It’s happened twice, with Minnesota Vikings defensive tackle Alan Page and New York Giants linebacker Lawrence Taylor earning the accolade in 1971 and ’86, respectively.
Offensively, no receiver, tight end or offensive lineman has ever been named MVP. Incredibly, a kicker once received the honor, with Washington’s Mark Moseley doing so in the strike-shortened 1982 campaign.
Long story short, this year’s MVP is either going to be a quarterback or a running back. Since 2007, only Adrian Peterson of the Vikings has broken through for the running backs, capturing MVP with a 2,000-yard season in ’12.
With all that in mind, here are the five front-runners, in descending order, through the first four weeks:
5. Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders
The eye test, traditional numbers and advanced metrics are all excellent for Daniels.
Washington (3–1) leads the NFC East largely because its rookie quarterback looks like a budding superstar. He’s completing an absurd 82.1% of his attempts, while throwing for 897 yards to rank 12th in the league. He’s also at 8.5 yards per attempt, tied for third behind only Sam Darnold and Brock Purdy.
From an analytics perspective, Daniels is thriving. He ranks first in success rate (57.7%) and EPA per play (0.398). His completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) is also at the top of the NFL by a wide margin at 11.2. Josh Allen sits second at 7.5. It’s an incredible bit of success considering his inexperience and the talent around him, which save for receiver Terry McLaurin is far from dynamic.
Finally, Daniels can’t be overlooked as a dual threat. He’s run for 218 yards and four touchdowns, giving him more rushing yardage than every other quarterback with the exception of Lamar Jackson.
4. Derrick Henry, RB, Baltimore Ravens
If any running back is going to break through, it’s Henry.
The future Hall of Famer signed a two-year deal with Baltimore this offseason, and the early returns are fantastic. After being limited to 130 rushing yards on 31 attempts over the season’s first two weeks, Henry has exploded. The 30-year-old torched the Dallas Cowboys and Buffalo Bills in consecutive weeks for 350 rushing yards and three scores, including an 87-yard touchdown on Baltimore’s first play from scrimmage against Buffalo on Sunday night.
Between Jackson and Henry, the Ravens have the second-best EPA per rush, with only Washington ranking higher. With 480 yards, Henry leads the league and is on pace for a whopping 2,040. If he somehow hits that benchmark, Henry would become the first player in NFL history to have multiple 2,000-yard seasons.
3. Sam Darnold, QB, Minnesota Vikings
Every year someone comes out of nowhere to shock the world. Darnold is such a story.
After being brought in to essentially caddy for J.J. McCarthy once the rookie was ready, Darnold found himself the unquestioned starter when McCarthy was lost for the year with a torn meniscus.
Instead of falling apart, the Vikings are thriving with Darnold as one of the league’s two unbeaten teams. Darnold has been excellent, throwing for 233 yards per game with a league-leading 11 touchdown passes. All of this with Jordan Addison missing time on the perimeter, leaving Justin Jefferson as the only key weapon for defenses to hone in on.
Of course, the question is whether Darnold can continue playing at this level. His time with the New York Jets, Carolina Panthers and San Francisco 49ers would cast doubt on that, but Minnesota coach Kevin O’Connell is one of the league’s best at scheming up the offense.
If nothing else, Darnold is off to a fantastic start.
2. Brock Purdy, QB, San Francisco 49ers
Purdy was an MVP candidate throughout 2023 but ultimately the award went to Jackson, while teammate Christian McCaffrey won Offensive Player of the Year.
This season, without Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and McCaffrey for either all or part of the first month, Purdy is still putting up gaudy numbers. Through four weeks, he ranks first in passing yardage (1,130) and yards per attempt (9.3) while completing 68.9% of his throws.
Additionally, Purdy is third in EPA per play at 0.221, behind only Daniels and Allen. He’s also in the top 10 in success rate and CPOE, and sits second in air yards, trailing only Anthony Richardson.
For the first two years of his career, Purdy has been maligned by critics as a game manager elevated by an outstanding roster. That hasn’t been the case this season.
1. Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
Even with the blowout loss in Week 4 to the Ravens, Allen should be at the top of the list.
The Bills jettisoned Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis and brought in very little firepower beyond second-round pick Keon Coleman. And Allen has still been fantastic. He hasn’t thrown an interception, while notching seven touchdown passes. He’s also spreading the ball around to Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid and Coleman, keeping defenses off-balance along with Buffalo’s ground attack.
Speaking of which, Allen has eschewed running the ball for quicker throws. He’s only carried 22 times for 106 yards, easily on pace for his fewest rushing yards since 2020.
Lastly, Allen has been efficient, ranking second in EPA per play (0.362), fifth in success rate (52.6%) and behind only Daniels in EPA+CPOE composite (0.220). Simply put, he’s been fantastic and with a track record that suggests a monster season.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as NFL MVP Watch: Josh Allen Leads the Front-runners Through Week 4.
