My first mock draft of the year had Bryce Young going first overall. My second one does as well — but the destination has changed.
The Detroit Lions, by virtue of a 4-1 record in their last five games, have rallied from the top pick to the middle of the draft order. The Houston Texans, a spilled pile of football players shaped into the rough form of an NFL franchise, have bumbled their way to No. 1. That puts them in perfect position to select a franchise quarterback capable of helping fans forget about the Davis Mills/Kyle Allen combo currently installed to lose games and quietly step aside this offseason.
After that, things get harder to predict. The 2023 NFL Draft class is thick with pass rushers, defensive backs and wideouts. Will needy defenses prefer the edge rushing of Will Anderson or the interior destruction of Jalen Carter? Is Joey Porter Jr. going to usurp Kelee Ringo as the first cornerback off the board? And which elite receiving target will the Green Bay Packers inevitably ignore to select a defensive player instead?
Here’s what I came up with for all 31 picks — remember, the Miami Dolphins don’t have one thanks to league sanctions against owner Stephen Ross — of the first round of next spring’s draft.
1
Houston Texans: QB Bryce Young, Alabama
Team needs: QB, CB, S, LB, DT
Davis Mills is not the answer — and benching him before Week 12 suggested the Texans won’t pass up the chance to add a quarterback in next year’s draft. Young is 2022’s most electric passer; a player capable of escaping certain doom to keep plays alive with superhuman effort. That’s exactly what Houston needs, given the lack of viable receivers and tight ends in the team’s lineup.
CJ Stroud and Jalen Carter will each get consideration here, but this team can’t afford to pass up the player with the highest upside and biggest possible impact on the game. That’s Young.
2
Chicago Bears: DL Jalen Carter, Georgia
Team needs: OL, WR, EDGE, DT, LB
The Bears don’t need a quarterback and it’s too early to take a wideout or offensive lineman. Instead, they can beef up a deficient defense — Chicago ranks 31st in overall DVOA this fall — by drafting Carter, 2023’s top prospect. The Georgia tackle is a devastating presence in the middle of the line with the potential to be a JJ Watt/Aaron Donald kind of disruptor up front. That’s hugely valuable, especially for a team with only 16 sacks in 13 games.
3
Seattle Seahawks (via Denver Broncos): EDGE Will Anderson, Alabama
Team needs: EDGE, S, LB, IOL, DT, CB
Geno Smith has more than earned a contract extension next offseason — he’s currently the league’s fourth-most efficient quarterback and has built a wildly successful connection with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. That makes Anderson the pick for a middling pass rush that badly needs a pocket-crumpling edge attacker who can force rushed throws and make everyone’s lives easier.
Anderson’s stock has slipped slightly as he’s been merely very good instead of absurd like he was in 2021. Even so, he has all the tools to be an absolute problem for NFC quarterbacks for the next decade.
4
Detroit Lions (via Los Angeles Rams): QB CJ Stroud. Ohio State
Team needs: QB, CB, S, LB, DT
Stroud is a blue chip talent whose improvisational skills can’t match up to Young’s. He’s been buoyed by elite wideouts at Ohio State, but in this situation he’d get to play with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams, among others, who are capable of keeping him in butter brickle. If nothing else he can be a big-armed pocket passer capable of creating a clear upgrade over Jared Goff and becoming a Matthew Stafford-esque presence for the Lions’ offense.
5
Philadelphia Eagles (via New Orleans Saints): DL Tyree Wilson, Texas Tech
Team needs: EDGE, LB, RB
Philly generates a fair amount of pressure without having to blitz. Wilson could be the next link in that chain — especially with several pieces of the team’s defensive line headed for free agency in 2023 (and all of those players in question 30 or older). The Texas Tech goblin edges out Clemson’s Myles Murphy as the pick at No. 5 thanks to his sustained production (14 tackles for loss, seven sacks in 10 games), massive size (6-foot-6, 275 pounds) and ability to chip inside and seal up running lanes.
Putting Wilson and Jordan Davis next to each other? That feels unfair to the rest of the NFC East.
6
Carolina Panthers: QB Will Levis, Kentucky
Team needs: QB, RB, OL, EDGE, LB
Matt Rhule was eventually fired in Carolina because he never had a franchise quarterback to develop. Now his successor gets one in Levis, who didn’t fully grasp his opportunity in 2022 but still managed to improve on his breakout 2021 season (8.5 yards per attempt vs. 8.0, fewer turnovers and slightly more yards per game despite a depressing run game to back him up).
Levis will get some immediate support from DJ Moore and a defense capable of big things. After that, things get dicey.
7
Jacksonville Jaguars: CB Kelee Ringo, Georgia
Team needs: DL, CB, S, OG
The Jags could go with blocking help here, but reinforcing a defense that allowed the Lions to score on eight straight drives in Week 13 feels like a bigger priority. Jacksonville is home to the league’s 30th-ranked passing defense and Darious Williams has been a bust in his first season in Florida.
Ringo, Joey Porter Jr. and Cam Smith are the early frontrunners to lead this year’s crop of coverage help. Any would be a boon to a secondary that’s allowed twice as many touchdowns as interceptions in 2022.
8
Arizona Cardinals: OT Peter Skoronski, Northwestern
Team needs: EDGE, CB, DT, OL, WR
Starting right tackle Kelvin Beachum will be a 32-year-old free agent in 2023, creating a clear need for an upgrade along the Arizona offensive line. Getting Skoronski, a three-year starter in the Big Ten, would give the Cardinals a high-floor plug-and-play starter who can start his career on the right side and pair with DJ Humphries to give Kyler Murray a pair of rock solid bookends up front. Paris Johnson Jr. and Broderick Jones are other options who’d be a boon to a passing offense that’s been stuck in neutral through 2022.
9
Indianapolis Colts: QB Anthony Richardson, Florida
Team needs: QB, CB, S, OL
Team owner Jim Irsay is on tilt after suffering through nearly a decade of diminishing returns in the post-Peyton Manning era. He fired Frank Reich despite a solid record, installed Jeff Saturday as his interim head coach, and now heads into an offseason where finding a franchise quarterback — and not a retread like Carson Wentz or Matt Ryan — will be a priority.
In an ideal world, Saturday’s lack of experience will float this team to a top five pick and a chance to draft Levis or Stroud. But barring that (and not considering a trade-up, hellllllooooo Eagles) Richardson is worth a reach. The Florida Gator is a big, mobile boom-or-bust passer with a little Josh Allen to his game (i.e. he launches footballs, runs fools over and struggles with accuracy). He’s likely to move up draft boards and, with Hendon Hooker rehabbing a torn ACL, likely to be the fourth passer off the board next spring.
10
Atlanta Falcons: EDGE Myles Murphy, Clemson
Team needs: QB, OT, RB, EDGE, LB, DB
Murphy’s slide thanks to QB (and blocking) needy teams ends here, though he’s certainly in play for the Cardinals at No. 8. This spot may wind up looking embarrassingly low if he does something ridiculous like run a 4.5-second 40 at 275 pounds at this year’s Draft Combine.
He’d be a boon for Atlanta, who currently ranks 31st in sacks and dead last in pressure rate (13 percent) in 2022. The Falcons need much more help than Murphy can provide, but pairing him with Arnold Ebiketie would give that defense a rising young pair of edge rushers and a rising tide for the other nine guys on the field with them.
11
Green Bay Packers: DL Bryan Bresee, Clemson
Team needs: WR, OL, EDGE, S, TE
What *should* the Packers do with this pick? TCU standout Quentin Johnston looks like the obvious pick to boost a receiving corps in dire need of star power.
What *will* they do? Well, given the last decade of Green Bay picks it’ll probably be a defensive player (they’ve gone defense with their first selection in nine of the last 10 years, with the only exception being Jordan Love in 2020). Bresee can bring youth and athleticism to a front line that’s been repeatedly gashed by running backs and mobile quarterbacks in recent years. While his numbers don’t stand out, his athleticism and power up front clear the way for his teammates to make drive-crushing plays.
The Pack took another vaunted high school prospect with great athletic traits but middling college numbers in 2019 when they drafted Rashan Gary. That worked out well enough to try again with Bresee.
12
Las Vegas Raiders: CB Joey Porter Jr., Penn State
Team needs: OL, DB, LB, DT
The current center-right guard-right tackle lineup in Vegas is Andre James, Alex Bars and Jermaine Eleumenor. Taking Johnson or Jones to give Kolton Miller a proper counterpart up front is a very real possibility here.
But the Raiders have been able to make that group work. What hasn’t worked is their 32nd-ranked passing defense. Porter Jr. can help.
The Penn State star has more passes defensed (11) than games played in 2022 (10) and at 6-foot-2 is a long, rangy cornerback capable of locking down Pro Bowl wideouts in man coverage. While it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a member of the Davis family opt for the draft’s first wide receiver here, Porter would be the most logical pick.
13
Houston Texans (via Cleveland Browns): WR Quentin Johnston, TCU
Team needs: QB, WR, EDGE, LB, OL
Young gets a stud wideout to grow alongside in Johnston, a player who’s been instrumental to TCU’s rise from Big 12 also-ran to College Football Playoff participant in 2022. The 6-foot-4 wideout doesn’t have prolific stats, but his 53 catches and 903 yards in 12 games belie his importance to the Horned Frog offense.
Johnston simply finds ways to create separation in man coverage and slips undetected into open seams against zone. Watch TCU for any extended stretch and you’ll hit a play where the guy every defense is 100 percent locked in on somehow gets wide, wide open for a big gain. That’s exactly what the Texans need.
14
Pittsburgh Steelers: OT Paris Johnson Jr., Ohio State
Team needs: OL, CB, DT, LB
Sadly, Joey Porter Jr.’s selection at No. 14 means he can’t follow his father’s footstephs in Pittsburgh. While the Steelers need bodies on defense, they also need offensive line help. Kenny Pickett has been sacked nearly three times per game in his first season as a pro.
Dan Moore, a 2021 fourth-round pick, is responsible for six of those as his left tackle. Right tackle Chukwuna Okorafor has a 61.2 PFF grade. Johnson has the versatility, size and speed to fill either spot or even kick inside to bolster the team’s guard position. He’d be the crown jewel of Pittsburgh’s blocking overhaul.
15
Detroit Lions: CB Christian Gonzalez, Oregon
Team needs: QB, CB, S, LB, DT
In my last mock draft, the Lions had the top overall pick. Now they clock in at 15th. Hats off to Dan Campbell for wringing the most out of this team, even if his defense is a sad slurry of busted coverages.
Gonzalez is here to help with that, even if Detroit’s newfound success likely takes it out of the running for a top-two cornerback prospect. The Colorado transfer was a breakout star in his lone season in Oregon, recording four interceptions and 50 tackles to show off a well-rounded game. He’s 6-foot-2 and fast as hell, too. When he runs a 4.3-second 40 at next year’s Draft Combine he’s going to invite plenty of comparisons to one of 2022’s rookie studs, Seattle cornerback Tariq Woolen.
16
Los Angeles Chargers: WR Jordan Addison, USC
Team needs: OL, CB, LB
The Chargers have more pressing needs than wideout, but Addison’s slide makes him too tempting to pass up for a team desperate to unlock the full extent of Justin Herbert’s potential. Mike Williams and Keenan Allen have barely played in more than half the team’s games in 2022 due to injury and Allen is now on the wrong side of 30.
Addison and Josh Palmer would give the team two young, reliable targets to back up the team’s established stars. The question now is whether Brandon Staley would know what to do with this embarrassment of wideout riches should everyone stay healthy for 2023.
17
New England Patriots: OT Broderick Jones, Georgia
Team needs: OT, LB, EDGE, CB, S
The Isaiah Wynn experiment is likely at its end. Bill Belichick can replace him with another Georgia standout by drafting Jones, the left tackle who has paved the way for Stetson Bennett IV to become a real-life Heisman Trophy finalist.
The 6-foot-4, 310-pound blocker is intelligent and instinctive up front, reacting quickly to defensive stunts and quick enough to keep blistering edge rushers at bay. He’s also a beast in the run game, which would help clear space for Rhamondre Stevenson to keep carrying this offense if whomever winds up playing QB in 2023 cannot.
18
Washington Commanders: CB Cam Smith, South Carolina
Team needs: QB, OL, CB, S, LB
Quarterback is a concern and the offensive line needs help, but Washington’s recent success — 6-1 in its last seven games — makes it difficult to find a blue chip prospect at those positions. Fortunately for the Commanders, there are still several strong defensive backs capable of revamping a pass defense that lags behind the team’s efforts against the run. A safety like Brian Branch or Antonio Johnson may be in play, but both Kamren Curl and Darrick Forrest have exceeded expectations and should be asked to run it back in 2023.
Instead, Washington can get the corner presence they’d hoped they’d found in William Jackson III by drafting South Carolina star Smith. The Gamecock was an aerial prophylactic as SEC opponents actively avoided targeting his side of the field this fall. While his raw numbers aren’t enormous, he’s a fearsome corner with great closing speed who allowed just a 61.0 passer rating in coverage in 2022.
19
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: TE Michael Mayer, Notre Dame
Team needs: IOL, QB, CB, S, EDGE
No one knows if Tom Brady will return to football or return to Tampa Bay. Drafting a Rob Gronkowski-esque tight end would be one way to lure him back to Florida. While the Bucs badly need interior offensive line help, Tampa could select Mayer here, then hope guards like O’Cyrus Torrence or Cooper Beebe slide into Day 2 for an offense-revitalizing double-dip.
Mayer is big and fast, capable of roasting linebackers who try to cover him or battering them as a blocker on running plays. He’s had at least 800 receiving yards and seven touchdowns in each of his last two seasons and could be the third down security blanket Brady (or whomever is behind center for the Bucs next year) has badly missed.
20
Seattle Seahawks: LB Trenton Simpson, Clemson
Team needs: EDGE, LB, IOL, DT, CB
The Seahawks’ defensive overhaul continues with Simpson, a destructive sideline-to-sideline off-ball linebacker who’d immediately upgrade a position where Cody Barton and Jordyn Brooks have struggled. The Clemson starter hasn’t been able to live up to his 2021 breakout season, but he remains the kind of player who does everything well and, more importantly, can play on an island and allow his teammates to thrive around him.
Simpson is an athletic beast and punishing tackler who attacks running lanes with reckless abandon. Seattle’s gonna love him.
21
Tennessee Titans: EDGE Nolan Smith, Georgia
Team needs: EDGE, CB, LB, TE, WR
David Long is having one of his best seasons, but he’s a pending free agent and the Titans aren’t flush with cash. Tennessee could opt to replace him with an off-ball linebacker like Noah Sewell here. OR, the team can generate more than $15 million in cap space by designating Bud Dupree (seven sacks in 19 games as a Titan) as a post-June 1 release and drafting his replacement.
Smith has the biggest potential among the second tier of edge rushers (which includes Isaiah Foskey, Jared Verse, Andre Carter II and others). He’s lean at 235 pounds but flexible, fast, and useful in coverage. He’s a versatile tool for Mike Vrabel to mold into a Pro Bowler.
22
New York Jets: EDGE Isaiah Foskey, Notre Dame
Team needs: OL, EDGE, S, LB
Smith’s selection at 21 makes life a little easier for the Jets. Robert Saleh gets a beefy defensive end who can anchor the edge of his 4-3 front or kick inside with a 265-pound frame to create problems in the run game.
Foskey has been consistent and efficient his final two seasons at Notre Dame, recording double digit sacks in each. That includes multiple tackle-for-loss games against proper opponents like Oklahoma State, Florida State and USC (twice — 3.5 sacks and 4.5 TFLs in two showdowns with the Trojans). He’d pair with Quinnen Williams and 2022 first round pick Jermaine Johnson to give New York a bruising young front line capable of dragging down the AFC’s top quarterbacks.
23
New York Giants: WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ohio State
Team needs: WR, CB, LB, QB, S
It’s unclear who the Giants’ quarterback will be next season, but wildly obvious he’ll need better targets. Smith-Nijgba’s stock has tumbled in 2022 due to injury, but he remains a dynamic receiving threat capable of putting his team’s offense on his shoulders and devastating opponents. As disappointing as his season has been, he’s well worth the risk as a player who had 60 catches for 958 yards and six touchdowns … in the final five games of 2021 alone.
24
Miami Dolphins: PICK FORFEITED
Team needs: EDGE, TE, RB, LB, S
The NFL docked Miami this pick and a 2023 third rounder and fined team owner $1.5 million for violating “the integrity of the game” as it pertained to tampering with then-Saints head coach Sean Payton and Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady.
25
Denver Broncos (via Miami Dolphins, via San Francisco 49ers): OT Anton Harrison, Oklahoma
Team needs: EDGE, OT, CB, LB
The Broncos bought their way back into the first round by trading Bradley Chubb to the Dolphins. This was extremely necessary; while Denver’s defense remains genuinely very good, this offense is butt.
As funny as it would be to see the team select a quarterback one year after trading for, then extending, a broken Russell Wilson there is, sadly, almost no chance that happens. Instead, the franchise can hope blocking was the problem and work to upgrade Wilson’s offensive line. The Broncos’ current starting tackles, as of Week 13, are Calvin Anderson and Cameron Fleming, both of whom will be free agents next spring. Harrison, a mean 6-foot-5 space clearer, is a bruiser in the run game and a blindside protector capable of improving his quarterback’s untenable 9.4 percent sack rate.
26
Baltimore Ravens: WR Jalin Hyatt, Tennessee
Team needs: WR, EDGE, DL, CB
Lamar Jackson badly needs wideouts and the 2023 free agent pool is limited. That makes Hyatt, an absolute burner who teamed up with Hendon Hooker for nearly 1,300 receiving yards and 15 touchdowns in 12 games, a priority for the Ravens.
Hyatt had 207 of those yards and five scores against Alabama, which suggests he can absolutely do this on a regular basis against NFL defenses. Baltimore’s problem is that he may run something stupid like a 4.2-second 40 in Indianapolis and boost his draft stock out of the team’s price range.
27
Cincinnati Bengals: S Brian Branch, Alabama
Team needs: OL, DB, DT, TE
As much as I want to get dumb and add Bijan Robinson to Joe Burrow’s offense — Samaje Perine is a free agent and Joe Mixon, while under contract, ranks 39th out of 45 qualified running backs with a meager 1.4 yards after contact — Cincinnati has a pressing need in the secondary and the chance to take the draft’s first safety.
Both Jessie Bates and Vonn Bell are pending free agents, creating a need in the middle of a good, but not great, passing defense. Branch is a versatile defensive back who can line up at corner or in the slot, but his primary value will be as a rangy safety centerfielder who can crumble runners at the line of scrimmage or erase deep balls downfield. He’s been a ballhawk at Alabama, knocking down 23 passes in three seasons while emerging for 10 tackles for loss in 2022.
28
Dallas Cowboys: LB Noah Sewell, Oregon
Team needs: OL, LB, S, CB
Sewell was my pick for Dallas in the first mock. Now that he’s languished to No. 27, he’s Jerry Jones’ guy again. The Oregon standout is a wide-bodied wrecking ball capable of running with tight ends or crashing through the line of scrimmage as a blitzer (four sacks in 2021). He’s productive, aggressive, and athletic, which gives him the chops to hang with Micah Parsons and be the kind of off-ball monster that allows the Cowboy pass rush to take even more risks.
29
Kansas City Chiefs: CB Clark Phillips III, Utah
Team needs: OL, CB, DT, LB, S
Kansas City has allowed opposing passers to record a 101.4 rating in 2022 — second-worst in the league. Part of that is thanks to injury, but there’s no doubt this team needs more young playmakers in the secondary after getting roasted by Joe Burrow (only six incompletions in 31 passes) in Week 13.
Phillips III fits that bill. After knocking down 13 passes in 2021 he’s got six interceptions this fall, including a pair of pick-sixes. Every one of his INTs and passes defensed this year have come against Pac-12 opponents.
30
Minnesota Vikings: EDGE Andre Carter II, Army
Team needs: EDGE, CB, S, LB, TE
There are several useful edge rushers available here, including LSU’s BJ Ojulari and Florida State’s Jared Verse. Carter, a 6-foot-7 hellbeast slated to be the highest drafted service academy prospect in decades, may have the highest upside of any of them.
While his numbers have suffered as opponents dedicate their game plan to stopping him, he’s still the guy who had an absurd 14.5 sacks and 17.5 tackles for loss in 2021. The former under-recruited tight end is still refining his game, but he has the tools to be an absolute problem at the next level. The Vikings, with a bottom 10 pressure rate, could use one of those.
31
Buffalo Bills: RB Bijan Robinson, Texas
Team needs: CB, IOL, S, LB
The Bills don’t need Robinson, but if the draft’s top running back fell into their laps at the end of round one he may be too tempting to pass up. Robinson has averaged more than 100 rushing yards per game in his college career and better than six yards per carry.
He also averages more than 13 yards per reception (16.4 in 2022 alone). Imagine that guy teaming with Devin Singletary and James Cook in the backfield alongside Josh Allen.
32
Philadelphia Eagles: EDGE Jared Verse, Florida State
Team needs: EDGE, LB, RB
Jahmyr Gibbs was the pick last mock. While he’s still available here the Eagles may be tempted to double dip to beef up their pass rush rather than replenish their backfield. Verse is a bit of a mystery; a player with one year at the FBS level after transferring to Tallahassee following two seasons as an Albany Great Dane.
He wasn’t overwhelmed with the jump from the CAA to ACC, recording 7.5 sacks and 14.5 tackles for loss as a Seminole. With prototypical size (6-foot-4, 250 pounds) and plus quickness he has the burst to flush passers upward in the pocket — where Jordan Davis and now Tyree Davis can clean them up.
