It’s usually fair to wait a few years to judge a draft class. But free agency? Give us a few weeks of the NFL regular season. This is why it feels a little less speculative to parse out who did well and who did not after Week 1 has (just about) come and gone.
Let’s not waste any time detailing what we already know: Some of the major contenders in this league are getting stronger. Some of them are starting to show very obvious signs of tattering. Some of them are showing why they are always considered contenders.
You can read more about them, and much more, below:
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WINNERS
Bengals QB Joe Burrow and GM Duke Tobin
While the Bengals have their own issues when it comes to long-term player care, they are, in the short term, continuing to behave like a premier NFL franchise when it comes to cash spending. When Zac Taylor arrived in Ohio, the Bengals became one of the most active teams in free agency. This year, they signed Orlando Brown Jr., quadrupling down on their commitment to build a legitimate offensive line in front of Burrow. While Burrow is often the first to admit that some of the high volume of sacks he takes is due to his playing style, the franchise is also raising its hand and taking some of the responsibility.
Pass catchers who can block
Certainly this could also be subtitled “Aaron Rodgers’ friends,” but we took the high road. As we’ve pointed out in various other mediums, I still think it was good business for the Jets to sign someone like Allen Lazard, who can block. Few receivers take it as seriously as he does. The same can be said for Marcedes Lewis (still unsigned), who is dominant on the line of scrimmage and gives your offense an extra dimension, especially if you plan on running the ball outside; Lewis can supplement an average offensive tackle. The Jets were an additional team on the market for Lazard, and Rogers’s wish list may have bolstered Lewis’s market as well.
Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel
In the span of a few months, his owner has agreed to pay premiums for Vic Fangio, the best defensive coordinator in the NFL, and absorb the Jalen Ramsey contract. This, a year after doing a trade and extension for Tyreek Hill and snapping up Terron Armstead. While this should be the expectation of all owners, it is not a reality. There are teams that simply do not have the money on hand, or do not desire to spend it. The beneficiary here is McDaniel, whose individualistic approach to coaching has earned him a wide runway on which to operate. While that also increases the pressure, the Dolphins would be foolish to pin McDaniel into a win-or-go-home scenario in 2023. They should allow him to grow with this star-studded roster.
Eagles GM Howie Roseman and owner Jeffrey Lurie
I think when you see players delaying retirement, or celebrating the fact that they were re-signed in free agency, it transcends a bit the cynicism that most veterans have at this point in their careers. I talked to Jason Kelce about this before the Super Bowl.
“When there’s change, there’s not wholesale change,” he said. “They retain bits and pieces here and there that are important and good and they want to move forward with, so there’s still a foundation and a culture to build with and there’s trust. I don’t want to say family, but all the basic fundamentals of a successful organization and team are based on togetherness and they kind of find a way to do these things.”
By retaining Kelce for one more year, and bringing back Brandon Graham, Fletcher Cox and Darius Slay, the Eagles are extending time with that foundation as they attempt to build the next phase of the roster. At some point, beyond the losses they’ve sustained in free agency this year, the Eagles will need to think about a complete offensive line makeover, as well as an even more intense defensive line rebuild than the one we’re witnessing now. Retaining Kelce and Graham, who could very well work for the team when their playing days are done, is instrumental in that process.
Sheldon Rankins and the defensive tackle class
Perhaps no one reflected the strength of this year’s defensive tackle market like Rankins, the 2016 first-round pick of the Saints. Rankins struggled a bit with injuries toward the end of his Saints career and spent the last two years with the Jets on a two-year deal worth $11 million. Despite being underutilized in Florham Park, Rankins hit free agency and earned more than $10 million for his services in ’23 alone, nearly doubling his salary. Rankins, Cox and Larry Ogunjobi were all roughly in the $10 million range, while Dalvin Tomlinson is making more than $14 million per year. Javon Hargrave clocked in at $21 million per year on his new contract.
Panthers GM Scott Fitterer
Fitterer acquired the No. 1 pick and then got to throw some money around. Adding Hayden Hurst, Vonn Bell, Miles Sanders, Shy Tuttle, DeShawn Williams, and retaining Bradley Bozeman, set the table for a critical offseason for new coach Frank Reich. The Andy Dalton signing also feels a little underrated. Dalton, should he have to play, would mesh well with Reich. At worst, I think he’s ready to settle into the Josh McCown role.
Giants owner John Mara
The Giants’ owner is quite fond of Daniel Jones, and got to see Jones locked in for the near term (thanks to a pinkie swear). But on a larger scale, Mara has watched his franchise transform at the hands of second-year general manager Joe Schoen. Sure, the Giants of old made trades and signed good players. This is not a new avenue for GMs to pursue.
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Saints QB Derek Carr
If you were to ask me after the combine whether I imagined the Saints coming out of free agency with a good quarterback and Michael Thomas, I would have told you no. Thomas felt like a luxury beyond their current means, but on a one-year deal worth $10 million, he is a reclamation project worth seeing through. The Saints now have Thomas, Chris Olave and Tre’Quan Smith, which while not quite at the skill level of the players Carr was working with in Las Vegas, is still better than some of the offensive deserts Carr could have been stuck in.
Cowboys DC Dan Quinn
While the Cowboys seem to be scuffling a bit offensively, Quinn got Stephon Gilmore to add to an already talented secondary, while the team also re-signed Donovan Wilson. Quinn has had one of the best defenses in football each of the last two years, and, should he be interested in taking one more swing at a head coaching job, he would seem to have his pick. As non-bullish as I might be on a Mike McCarthy–Brian Schottenheimer tandem on offense, this defense, in Quinn’s hands, will keep Dallas afloat in the NFC.
While we could all make a sound argument that their offseason would be complete had they made a run at Lamar Jackson, the Falcons had a targeted start to the offseason and built themselves into a legitimate contender in a broken-down NFC South. Trying to tap some of the potential Jessie Bates showed two seasons back, while avoiding the absolute top of the safety market, was a solid move. Squaring away their best offensive lineman, Chris Lindstrom, was also an absolute necessity and given the massive leap Quenton Nelson made on the interior line market with his deal, negotiations could have been complex.
I also really liked the Taylor Heinicke signing, as it prevents the Falcons from being truly without a lifeline if Desmond Ridder doesn’t produce in his second season. As wild as it sounds, Heinicke could end up being a division-winning quarterback with that roster in that division.
Browns DE Myles Garrett
As we predicted, the Browns were going to attack the defensive line market to try to peel away some double teams from Myles Garrett. The result was Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, Maurice Hurst Jr., Trysten Hill and headliner Dalvin Tomlinson. This team will absolutely dominate both lines of scrimmage, and Okoronkwo should develop into more of a volume sacker now that he can play off the most dominant defensive lineman in the NFL.
Vikings edge Marcus Davenport
Davenport gets to leave what might be a sinking ship in New Orleans, or at least a defense whose core is aging faster than Dennis Allen would like, for a chance to be the featured edge rusher in Minnesota—a spot that earned Za’Darius Smith double-digit sacks a year ago. Davenport’s one-year deal puts him back on the market before his age-28 season (he turns 27 just before Week 1), which should give him a chance to land a legitimate megadeal next offseason.
I had the Commanders pegged as a winner even before the ProFootballTalk item from Thursday that reported we could legitimately be on the precipice of a sale. Here we are in one ballpark, celebrating the arrival of Jacoby Brissett—one of the best signings of the offseason—and the team could actually be transitioning to competent leadership for the first time in decades. The Commanders have buffered a few potential danger zones as they head into the season: a lack of depth behind Sam Howell, and a lack of cross-trained offensive linemen to piece together a formidable unit in front of Howell (or Brissett). That seems to be less of a problem now.
Bears QB Justin Fields
You can read more about my optimism about Chicago’s offseason here. But Fields has a new No. 1 wide receiver in DJ Moore and some ancillary pieces that could turn this offense into a Lamar Jackson–like battering ram with Robert Tonyan, Travis Homer and D’Onta Foreman, who costs next to nothing and will help reduce the wear on Fields’s body.
Offensive linemen
Chris Lindstrom topped the guard market, while Orlando Brown Jr. just slightly leapfrogged last offseason’s Jordan Mailata deal, and Mike McGlinchey locked in a significant payday worth more than $17 million per season with the Broncos. Terron Armstead signed for $15 million per year last season.
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LOSERS
Am I the only one who thought losing Jamaal Williams was unnecessary? Dan Campbell understands better than anyone what individual player fire can bring to the table. And while Williams’s camera-worthy moments from 2022 could have been simply performative, he was everywhere, breaking down every huddle and serving as the bleeding heart of a plucky football team. Plus, he scored 17 rushing touchdowns. That wasn’t worth the $8 million in guarantees he fetched in New Orleans?
While we’re belaboring a point, the fact that this team had to bring in any off-ball linebacking help at all is somewhat astonishing given the capital spent by the previous regime at the position (even though one of the players, Isaiah Simmons, isn’t really a linebacker anymore).
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes
This is a bit tongue in cheek, of course, but just watching the Chiefs go from Orlando Brown Jr. to Jawaan Taylor and JuJu Smith-Schuster to the rest of a formidable and budding set of receivers, it’s clear the franchise has an unshakable confidence in Mahomes’s ability to overcome most personnel situations. Again, Travis Kelce, Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney, et al. aren’t shabby. And Andy Reid himself told me during Super Bowl week that he felt energized by the process of piecing together new faces around Mahomes. More moves could be on the horizon. But for now, Mahomes is so good that he’s allowing the team to spend some of its capital elsewhere (the parts they are allowed to spend, anyway).
The wide receiver position
Also mentioned in our free-agency predictions piece was the rapid cooling of the receiver market. Jakobi Meyers and Lazard both came in at $11 million per season, while Smith-Schuster landed in New England for $8.5 million per season. None of them came close to tapping the $13 million average per year Nelson Agholor got from the Patriots two offseasons ago.
There was almost certainly no tailwind from last year’s receiver market, which featured new deals for Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams, which helped push a long-stagnant market out of the swamp. After NFL teams traded up to nab receivers in last year’s draft to avoid shopping on the premium marketplace, it seems this market has gone belly up.
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Dallas Cowboys’ offense
With Ezekiel Elliott and Kellen Moore gone, it’s hard to imagine Dallas becoming a more efficient offense than it was a year ago. Alas, Mike McCarthy is betting on himself. Replacing Elliott was a financial decision and while it’s almost always wise to shed your roster of big running back contracts, I thought the former top-five pick looked dominant in stretches last season, and helped wear down opponents as part of their multifaceted backfield. Now, Tony Pollard has to handle a full workload, and perhaps what was so special about Pollard was how his changeup speed was selectively applied over the course of a game.
Sellers of banana pudding in the Greater Philadelphia area
If you, a purveyor of sweets in the City of Brotherly Love, thought you would swoop in and provide the Eagles with their much-needed banana pudding on Fridays now that Darius Slay was gone, think again. After a brief scare, Slay isn’t going anywhere.
For those uninformed, Slay’s wife, Jennifer, makes the dessert for the team every week. A.J. Brown was pretty excited when he found out that tradition would continue.
While I am always intimidated by the idea of criticizing the Ravens, this can’t be a satisfying place to be right now. They’re still in what seems to be an acrimonious place with their quarterback, they have limited cap space and they aren’t (yet) taking a general direction. And, while most of Baltimore’s damage is going to be done traditionally in the middle rounds of the draft, Baltimore has just five picks at the moment.
Bills coach Sean McDermott
After the unbearable weight of last season, I wonder whether McDermott wanted to see an injection of fresh blood. Last year, the Bills went for it, bringing in a closer like Von Miller to underline the team’s Super Bowl aspirations. This year, the Bills have been plodding, mostly, save for the sound addition of Connor McGovern. If last year was any indication, this team needs to follow the blueprint of Philadelphia: When you think you have enough, continuously and gluttonously pack on more. Add at all costs. Make Josh Allen never need to escape the pocket again.
The golden age of Rams football
Jalen Ramsey is gone. Leonard Floyd is gone. As of this moment, there doesn’t seem to be a sense (or a realistic possibility) that the Rams can reshuffle this thing quickly. All that said, I’ll bet Les Snead is through-the-roof excited about what he can do for the roster’s middle class with multiple third-round, fifth-round and sixth-round picks.
Offensive lines in the NFC
I don’t care who is starting at quarterback for the 49ers, to be honest. If you’re not buying Super Bowl futures right now for the 49ers, you’re missing a great opportunity. If the team stays healthy, Javon Hargrave, Nick Bosa and Arik Armstead will bully some tattered units in the division and conference. San Francisco didn’t want to wait on Javon Kinlaw anymore, and its new upgrade is now a massive pain for anyone trying to block this front on a regular basis.
Perhaps I’m wrong and Beckham will have a bit of a revival in interest after the draft. But I don’t see too many teams earmarking massive amounts of cash for a good wide receiver who has not been healthy enough to dominate in some time. In hearing about Beckham’s injury rehabilitation process during his time in Cleveland, there’s little doubt about how seriously he takes the idea that he can be great again. I just wonder where he’ll land, and if the price tag is anywhere close to the $20 million per year he is reportedly seeking.
