In case you’re not on X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter, the NFL’s new calendar year officially started late Wednesday afternoon.
If you’re active on X, then you definitely know that because every NFL reporter was wishing you a Happy New Year on your timeline. That was the most excitement in the NFL for the “new year”—until Calvin Ridley signed with the Tennessee Titans—because most notable free agents had already agreed to terms with their respective teams during the league’s legal tampering period, from Monday to Tuesday.
Maybe one day the NFL will stop with this nonsense of “legal tampering” and just call it free agency. No need to wait two days and make everyone suffer with “Happy New Year” tweets on a Wednesday in March.
It might seem like it, but I don’t hate everything. I like what the Titans have done during free agency to help quarterback Will Levis and new coach Brian Callahan.
As for the Philadelphia Eagles, they’ve done fine, but some of their moves come with question marks. Same with the Houston Texans, who have made plenty of noise this week.
It’s been a while, but here’s a special free agency edition of “Fact or Fiction.” If you dislike my verdicts, send me a tweet saying Happy New Year. That would truly annoy me.
Jeff Hanisch/USA TODAY Sports
Broncos need to trade for Bears QB Justin Fields
Manzano’s view: Fact
Justin Fields’s trade market quickly dried up for the Chicago Bears after many free agent quarterbacks found new homes this week. But there still remains one viable landing spot in which all three sides could win, including a path for Fields being a starter in 2024. The Denver Broncos currently have Jarrett Stidham as QB1 and they don’t have a top-10 draft pick like other QB-needy teams, such as the Washington Commanders, New England Patriots and New York Giants. Also, the Broncos may not trade up at the cost of losing future draft picks because they have so much dead money on their books after paying Russell Wilson to go away (he’s owed about $38 million this year).
Even if the Broncos decide to take a quarterback with the No. 12 pick in the draft, they don’t have the resources to build a beneficial surrounding for a rookie quarterback. Fields has starting experience and can create plays on his own with his legs and arm. He might not fit Sean Payton’s scheme, but the Broncos don’t have many options. They should send Chicago a Day 3 pick and let Stidham and Fields battle in camp.
Vikings need to call Chargers for No. 5 pick
Manzano’s view: Fact
The Minnesota Vikings should at least call the Bears to explore whether they would be willing to trade Fields to an NFC North rival. They might bite if the trade offer is a third-round pick, but again, they’re divisional rivals. Trading up in the draft for Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy might be the next best option for the Vikings to replace Kirk Cousins, the new signal-caller for the Atlanta Falcons.
If the Vikings truly believe McCarthy has a high ceiling, they shouldn’t hesitate to trade a 2025 first-round pick to the Chargers, moving from No. 11 to No. 5 in next month’s draft. Jim Harbaugh could be O.K. with his former Michigan quarterback becoming a top-five pick and getting to throw to star wide receiver Justin Jefferson, who’s about to make a boatload of money with his looming contract extension. A quarterback on a rookie contract with a high ceiling might be the best option for the Vikings. And credit to Sports Illustrated draft expert Luke Easterling for suggesting this scenario in his latest mock draft.
Related: Mailbag: Why the Vikings Won’t Let Go of Justin Jefferson Anytime Soon
Texans are legit Super Bowl contenders after adding Hunter, Mixon
Manzano’s view: Fiction
Credit to the Texans for attempting to make the most out of their rookie-contract window with C.J. Stroud. They got better with the free-agent addition of edge rusher Danielle Hunter and the trade for running back Joe Mixon. I’m just not convinced they’re a legit Super Bowl contender.
Maybe my reasoning for that take isn’t the best, but history shows that teams that heavily bet on veteran non-QBs in March rarely end up in a Super Bowl the following February. The teams that build through the draft often give themselves the best odds of winning, which the Texans did with their 2023 draft class. If the Texans add more playmakers in this year’s draft, then perhaps I’ll take them seriously when it comes to teams that could dethrone the Kansas City Chiefs. Last season, the Jacksonville Jaguars were the trendy pick in the AFC South—they ended up missing the postseason.
Panthers would be wise to sign WR Mike Williams
Manzano’s view: Fact
The Carolina Panthers have had a decent free agency because Bryce Young’s surroundings improved with the signing of guard Robert Hunt and the trade for wide receiver Diontae Johnson. But the receiving trio of Johnson, Adam Thielen and Jonathan Mingo seems underwhelming, at least on paper.
Young, however, would greatly benefit if the Panthers sign Mike Williams, who was recently cut by the Los Angeles Chargers. His injury history is concerning, but when healthy, he’s one of the best jump-ball receivers, and not many players were as clutch as Williams was for the Chargers in the fourth quarter. Williams’s skill set is similar to Mike Evans, who had a remarkable 2023 season under the guidance of new coach Dave Canales.
Denny Simmons/USA TODAY Network
Derrick Henry will help Ravens surpass Chiefs
Manzano’s view: Fiction
My colleague Conor Orr might have said it best when he mentioned this move would have been amazing three years ago, but it’s still a decent signing in 2024. The Baltimore Ravens adding Derrick Henry keeps them as favorites in the AFC North, one of the most competitive divisions in the league. And, sure, Henry’s arrival also helps the Ravens maintain their Super Bowl window, but that’s largely still the case because they also re-signed defensive tackle Justin Madubuike.
The Ravens might still need to avoid the Chiefs in the postseason because a 30-year-old Henry with plenty of miles on his body doesn’t seem to be the missing piece to finally getting by Patrick Mahomes in January. Henry helps, but Lamar Jackson could use another wide receiver and the offensive line has holes with the departures of John Simpson and Morgan Moses.
Russell Wilson will guide Steelers to the playoffs
Manzano’s view: Fiction
Initially, I gave the Pittsburgh Steelers a B grade for adding Wilson on Sunday night—right before I got cozy to watch Netflix’s The Gentlemen. But after thinking it over, that was more about the Steelers finally giving Kenny Pickett competition after handing him the job last season despite a subpar rookie year. And it only cost the team $1.2 million to sign a Super Bowl-winning quarterback.
But upon more reflection, it should have been a B- or even C+ grade because of the simple fact that Wilson hasn’t been a good quarterback the past two seasons. If he beats Pickett in camp, the Steelers might again finish with nine or 10 wins, maybe fewer. It doesn’t do much for them besides confirming that Pickett wasn’t worth a first-round pick in 2022 and it’s time to move on. If Pickett is motivated and beats Wilson, maybe he’s the next Kirk Cousins, but even then the Steelers would likely only be a fringe wild-card team.
Related: Russell Wilson's Broncos Breakup Was Inevitable
The Eagles were the biggest winners in free agency
Manzano’s view: Fiction
The Eagles made a handful of splash moves in free agency, which is not surprising for a team with Howie Roseman as the general manager. But many of these additions come with question marks, and the Eagles may not have done enough to fix their broken defense. Saquon Barkley could help the offense, but he’s no longer the elite playmaker he was back in 2018. A three-year, $37 million contract seems steep for a player with injury concerns.
There’s nothing wrong with adding a quality running back, but why not Tony Pollard, who got less from the Titans (three years, $24 million). There’s also some risk with Bryce Huff, because he’s only had one productive season and has never truly been a full-time starter. Philadelphia handed Huff a three-year, $51.1 million deal. I liked the addition of C.J. Gardner-Johnson because both sides needed each other after a one-year breakup. But Gardner-Johnson rarely played with the Lions during the regular season because of injuries, then did enough in the postseason to gain a three-year, $33 million deal from Roseman. I don’t dislike the Eagles’ busy March. They’re just not the biggest winners during Week 1 of free agency.
Kirk Cousins’s arrival makes Falcons top team in NFC South
Manzano’s view: Fact
This one is easy because Kirk Cousins will get to play with an Atlanta offense that features Drake London, Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts and the newly acquired Darnell Mooney. But Cousins will also benefit from playing with offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, who spent the past few years working with Rams coach Sean McVay. Cousins could have a similar scheme to what he had with Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell, another branch from the McVay tree.
The Falcons being the best in the NFC South goes beyond Cousins. The team got it right last free agency by splurging on the defensive side, which should improve with new coach Raheem Morris. Atlanta could also add an edge rusher or another offensive weapon with its No. 8 pick in the draft. There’s plenty to like about the Falcons, but does Cousins make them a legit contender in the NFC? Well, that’s a different story, as Vikings fans know very well.
