It's a good time to take a closer look at the real contenders this NFL season now that the trade deadline has come and gone.
The Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs were active buyers before teams were told to stop making trades. Many are predicting a potential Lions vs. Chiefs Super Bowl showdown after both improved their respective rosters.
The Washington Commanders are finally being taken seriously as a Super Bowl contender, too, after the team made the splash move for cornerback Marshon Lattimore. They now have a lockdown corner in case they run into the Lions in the postseason.
There’s plenty of competition for Detroit over in the NFC. Maybe not as much for Kansas City in the AFC, but the Chiefs have been far from dominant despite their 8–0 start.
Let’s examine the buyers at the trade deadline for this week’s Fact or Fiction. Even the struggling Dallas Cowboys refuse to accept the realities of a chaotic season.
Chiefs will finish the regular season 17–0
Manzano’s view: Fiction
I get why some experts and fans are annoyed about Kansas City being viewed in the same light as Detroit. The Chiefs needed seven comebacks, a few missed false starts on Jawaan Taylor and a handful of questionable flags to go their way to get to 8–0 this season.
Regardless of how annoying the Chiefs’ games play out, Kansas City tends to find ways to win most of their contests, and it’s not always because the officials got involved. It helps to have Patrick Mahomes—that’s why Baker Mayfield groaned to the sky when the Chiefs won the overtime coin toss. It might get ugly, but nine times out of 10 Kansas City will find a way to win. That’s why the Chiefs are the heavy favorites to come out of the AFC—because the usual contenders haven’t found a way to beat them when it matters most.
By now, I’m sure I’ve annoyed those who are tired of seeing the Chiefs win, but here’s something to look forward to: They’ll likely lose a game in the regular season.
Remember, I said nine times out of 10 the Chiefs find a way to win. They’re coming up on their 10th game of the season. The Chiefs face the Denver Broncos and the Buffalo Bills the next two weeks. I wouldn’t be surprised if they fall into a trap game against the Broncos and respond by demolishing the Bills, who have won four consecutive games.
O.K., maybe it’s tough to picture rookie Bo Nix leading the Broncos to a win at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday. But the Chiefs love to play dangerously and eventually, they’ll get burned keeping it close in the final minutes. Kansas City plays the Los Angeles Chargers, Houston Texans and Pittsburgh Steelers in the final five games of the regular season.
Besides, this team probably couldn’t care less about a perfect record. The real goal is winning three consecutive Super Bowls.
The Lions will have a cakewalk to Super Bowl LIX
Manzano’s view: Fiction
The Lions have earned the right to be viewed as the heavy favorite in the NFC and the best team in football. They’re the No. 1 team on Conor Orr’s power rankings because they checked many boxes in the first half of the season.
Detroit has an offensive juggernaut and a physical defense that just acquired edge rusher Za’Darius Smith to help with the loss of Aidan Hutchinson, who sustained a season-ending leg injury last month.
The smart money is on the Lions (7–1) facing the Chiefs in Super Bowl LIX. But these two teams aren’t on a fast track to meeting in New Orleans in February.
There are too many strong teams in the NFC to say the Lions will have a cakewalk to the Super Bowl. This isn’t the AFC where you’re trying to convince yourself the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills can beat the Chiefs.
It wouldn’t be surprising if the Lions lose to one of their NFC North rivals, such as the Minnesota Vikings or Green Bay Packers. Yes, they’re 2–0 against those teams, but don’t overlook familiarity. These teams all know each other well, making any potential playoff meeting a coin flip.
Perhaps the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams both find a way into the postseason. The NFC West teams have Super Bowl experience with two of the best coaches in the NFL. No one will want to see Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp and Kyren Williams if Los Angeles finds a way into the playoffs. And who knows, maybe in two months the 49ers regain their Super Bowl contender status if their key players return to health.
And I haven’t even mentioned the top two teams in the NFC East with the Commanders, who are playing with plenty of confidence with rookie sensation Jayden Daniels, and the Philadelphia Eagles, who resemble the 49ers and Rams as Super Bowl runner-ups in 2022.
The Lions can definitely get by all these teams, but let’s hold off on punching their ticket to New Orleans.
Commanders were wise to go all in with Marshon Lattimore trade
Manzano’s view: Fact
The Commanders (7–2) had many reasons to continue accelerating their fast rebuild—that not many saw coming—this season.
Armed with extra draft picks, Washington went all in on winning now in Daniels’s rookie season after acquiring Lattimore from the New Orleans Saints in exchange for three 2025 draft picks, including a third-round selection. It was a steep price, but Washington GM Adam Peters had an extra third-round pick from the Jahan Dotson trade with the Eagles.
In a way, the Eagles helped the Commanders improve their defense, and in turn, possibly take the NFC East crown from them. Now Lattimore can help defend A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith when the divisional rivals play twice later this season.
This aggressive move for Lattimore might seem like a rookie mistake from a team not used to being in playoff contention this late. But all the moves Peters has made have benefited the present and the future in Washington, which is why he should be the frontrunner for Executive of the Year.
Peters knew coach Dan Quinn needed plenty of outside help to field a quality roster in Year 1 of their partnership, but he wisely invested in underrated players with short-term contracts to avoid hurting the salary cap in case the moves didn’t work out. That’s why Quinn was able to field a decent defense, despite not having much talent.
There’s an argument to be made that the Commanders should have continued with the same roster and not given up so many draft picks. But you never know how draft picks are going to pan out and how offseason acquisitions will do with a new team. So why not now? There’s no need to wait for next year when the Commanders are ready to contend this year.
Cowboys should have been sellers at the trade deadline
Manzano’s view: Fact
I can picture Cowboys owner Jerry Jones constantly being reminded about Dak Prescott recently going on the injured reserve list before shrugging and agreeing to trade for Carolina Panthers wide receiver Jonathan Mingo. Maybe one Cowboys executive almost shouted that a fourth-round pick was too much for Mingo, especially when the Chiefs got DeAndre Hopkins for essentially the same price.
All jokes aside, nothing the Cowboys (3–5) have done this season suggests that they’re a player or two away from turning into a playoff contender. Even the slim chance of a second-half surge vanished when Prescott injured his hamstring and went on IR, making him unavailable for at least the next four games.
But maybe Jones is ruminating on what backup Cooper Rush did in 2022 when he kept the team afloat while Prescott was sidelined. Even that thinking doesn’t make much sense because of the glaring roster holes in this year’s group. The Cowboys need to look to the future and find creative ways to improve the backfield, offensive line and defense. Building a roster got a whole lot harder after Prescott and CeeDee Lamb signed massive contract extensions before the season. Oh, and Lamb is dealing with a shoulder injury.
Prescott might have tried to warn Jones not to trade their draft picks when he said on the sideline last week that the 2024 Cowboys suck. Well, maybe he didn’t say that. We’ll have to ask a professional lip reader.
Anyway, maybe the Cowboys can revive Mingo’s career—he only has 12 catches for 121 yards in nine games this season and hasn’t contributed much since being drafted in the second round last year.
Also, the Cowboys didn’t have much to offer to a contender. Obviously, they weren’t trading star edge rusher Micah Parsons. Maybe this is Jones’s way of building for 2025 and not admitting this year has been a total failure in Dallas. I guess that’s a small win for one of the biggest disappointments this season.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as NFL Fact or Fiction: Chiefs Will Finish the Regular Season 17–0.
