Under former general manager Rick Spielman, we knew what the Vikings were going to target. The thresholds were obvious and how he approached the process was well-known.
Under Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, that doesn’t exist yet.
Adofo-Mensah took the job in January of 2022 and didn’t have all of his systems in place yet. Now that he does, how can we look at his first draft class to try and project things forward? I took a look at the limited data we have from his first draft class and tried to see what thresholds he has in place.
Level of competition matters
In the realm of college football, there are different levels of competition.
- FBS power five
- FBS group of five
- FCS
- D-II
- D-III
- Junior college
- NAIA
Of those, the top level is the powerhouses that you have to come to know. The Big 10, ACC, SEC, Big 12 and Pac 12. In those conferences, all of the Vikings’ picks and one UDFA that made the team (Luiji Vilain) were from power five conferences.
- SEC-4
- ACC-3
- Big 10-3
- Big 12-1
What is the thought process behind taking a player in the power five versus even the group of five? A combination of level of competition and resources available to expedite their development.
Yes, you can definitely have a top player at the group of five level, but you can eliminate a lot of variables with more resources and better competition. One of the things you want to do as an evaluator is eliminating variables and taking a player who played at the highest level of college football can make a major impact.
Explosion drills are prioritized
We’ve heard about it ad nauseam with the Vikings in regard to the 10-yard split. That number is from the first 10 yards of the 40-yard dash. Early on in the draft, the Vikings made it a major priority on the first two days especially.
- S Lewis Cine-99.8th percentile
- CB Andrew Booth Jr.-no testing
- G Ed Ingram-98.9th percentile
- LB Brian Asamoah-97.2nd percentile
These percentiles are based on their position groups. Essentially, they have a threshold above the 97th percentile on the first two days. We project that Booth Jr. would have gotten there had he been able to test, as his tape was superb in regards to explosiveness.
Throughout the rest of the draft, the lowest two 10-yard splits came from fourth-round pick Akayleb Evans (83.4th percentile) and seventh-round pick Nick Muse (81.7th percentile). All but one of the rest of the picks were above the 90th percentile with fifth-round pick Ty Chandler being in the 99.3rd percentile.
What is interesting with the data here is that there isn’t a direct correlation between high 10-yard splits and great jumps with the Vikings’ picks. These are the explosion metrics of all the Vikings’ picks and kept UDFAs.
| 40-Yard Dash | 20-Yard Split | 10-Yard Split | Vertical | Broad |
| 98.8 | 99.5 | 99.8 | 75.1 | 98.5 |
| 94.9 | 96 | 98.9 | 2.1 | 62.3 |
| 93.6 | 93.9 | 97.2 | 86.2 | 91.9 |
| 80 | 78 | 83.4 | 66.4 | 92.9 |
| 98.3 | 96.7 | 99.3 | 22.8 | 77.8 |
| 79.9 | 76.7 | 87.2 | 99.1 | 89.1 |
| 65.5 | 73.5 | 90.4 | 27.6 | 31.9 |
| 74.9 | 86 | 94.4 | 88 | 92.8 |
| 79.1 | 84.2 | 81.7 | 33.2 | 35.8 |
| 67.6 | 93.2 | 98.1 | 84.1 | 77.7 |
This will be something to monitor as we get more data on Adofo-Mensah, but the 10-yard split is one that he prioritizes right now.
Is age a factor?
One of the interesting discussions with drafting players is their age. The younger you get a player, the longer you in theory get them in their prime. It isn’t the end-all, be-all for a draft pick, but it makes a difference. One example of this is Justin Jefferson. He is three months and 20 days older than last year’s first-round pick Lewis Cine. That’s an incredible stat considering Jefferson has been in the league for two more seasons.
Age is going to be something I monitor throughout the tenure of Adofo-Mensah, especially coming from the Cleveland Browns where they have strict age thresholds. Last year’s class was abnormally old due to COVID-19 and this year’s is much of the same.
The average age of last year’s draft class plus the one UDFA is 23. That’s a much higher number than expected, but it’s also understanding the context of what the class is. The youngest players were taken early in the draft with Andrew Booth Jr. (21.6 years) and Brian Asamoah (22.1 years). Lewis Cine (22.6 years) isn’t old per se, but doesn’t fit the young criteria we expected Adofo-Mensah to follow
Position thresholds
This is a tough one as a whole. The Vikings only took one position twice in Adofo-Mensah’s first draft class. When you include Luiji Vilain, they kept 11 players at 10 different positions. We can extrapolate a bit to see what some thresholds are with both free agents signed this year and also group some positions together (OL, DL, Secondary)
- Secondary-90th percentile height
- Offensive line-90th percentile 10-yard split
- Edge rushers-90th percentile 10-yard split
- Overall-80th percentile 10-yard split
The interesting part about the secondary having size is that they just signed Byron Murphy Jr. He is a relatively small player with a 61st percentile height. What can that be attributed to? I believe it’s due to being in the league for four years and not being a massive projection like a rookie. Proving you can play already on the highest level takes out the variables of the equation.
Once we get more draft classes, this will be updated to reflect the improved data set.
What can we expect from the Vikings
With this being the first full year that Adofo-Mensah has to fully get his process set up, we are going to find out a lot more about how he values things. Right now, the 10-yard split and players that play in power five conferences are the two things we can feel the most confident about, but what else does the general manager with a Wall Street background prioritize? That’s where the fun lies.
