With just over five minutes remaining in the fourth quarter of the College Football Playoff Semifinals, Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud steps up to the line of scrimmage for a critical third down and long.
The Buckeyes know what they need: a field goal gives them a six-point lead, while a touchdown puts them up two scores. The problem is that the ball sits at the 32 yard-line, likely outside of kicker Noah Ruggles’ range.
As was the case all season, Stroud has a solution. Despite not having his two best wide receivers — likely first-round pick Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Marvin Harrison, Jr. — Stroud delivers a strike to Emeka Egbuka for a first down.
Ohio State lost the game, but it was hardly Stroud’s fault. Stroud finished the game with 348 passing yards and four touchdowns against one of the best defenses the sport has seen, cementing his place as one of the 2023 NFL Draft’s best quarterbacks.
Fast forward four months and the narrative has changed on Stroud. One month ago, Stroud was expected to be the top draft pick in next week’s draft; now, his stock is a question mark.
The reason for Stroud’s fall is hard to pinpoint, but it’s safe to say it has to do with his film. Stroud was one of college football’s best quarterbacks for two seasons, and he’s a modern-day problem solver. In a sport that’s one big math problem, he’s the best mathematician in the class.
Stroud doesn’t have the best arm in this class; he also isn’t the fastest, but none of that should matter. Playing quarterback is about more than being a physical freak of nature and throwing “ham cannons” around the field. The best quarterbacks can elevate their teammates and run an offense.
Don’t believe that? Ask the late Mike Leach, who knows something about developing quarterbacks.
“If he isn’t accurate and doesn’t make good decisions,” Leach wrote in his book Swing Your Sword. “Then he isn’t going to be very good at bringing out the best in your other players.
If Stroud falls down the board, which is a possibility, then the Minnesota Vikings should be licking their chops as they call every team inside the top 10 to trade up. Stroud isn’t a perfect prospect, but he also doesn’t need to be because his floor and problem-solving abilities will carry over.
Why is Stroud falling?
Stroud’s mysterious fall down the draft board has less to do with his tape and more to do with circumstances off-the-field.
By now, you’ve likely heard about the S2 Cognition Test, the modern-day replacement for the archaic Wonderlic test.
The finer details of what the S2 Cognition test entails are still a secret, but the test is designed to determine an athlete’s ability to process split-second information like they would on a football field.
While results for this year’s draft class aren’t public, reports have surfaced that Stroud struggled on the test. Bob McGinn of Go Long reported that Stroud’s total score was 18%, while Bryce Young, the expected first overall pick, scored a 98%.
S2 Cognition test results per @BobMcGinn:
Bryce Young – 98%
Jake Haener – 96%
Will Levis – 93%
Jaren Hall – 93%
Clayton Tune – 84%
Anthony Richardson – 79%
Hendon Hooker – 46%
CJ Stroud – 18%— Shane P. Hallam (@ShanePHallam) April 21, 2023
While these tests should not entirely impact a player’s stock, an NFL executive told McGinn that a poor score is “100%” because of the precedent that quarterbacks who get a low score do not pan out in the NFL.
“That is like red alert, red alert, you can’t take a guy like that. That is why I have Stroud as a bust,” another executive told McGinn. “That in conjunction with the fact, name one Ohio State quarterback that’s ever done it in the league.”
The second part of that quote might be even more concerning than the idea that Stroud’s low test scores are a reason for teams to avoid him.
The idea of “helmet scouting” is real regarding the NFL Draft. We’ve all heard how Ohio State quarterbacks can’t be good in the NFL because, historically, quarterbacks from Ohio State have struggled. The same was said about Alabama quarterbacks before Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa debunked those rumors.
The problem with helmet scouting is that it removes context from the argument. No two situations in college football are the same, regardless of the college. Coordinators change, players leave, and the two players’ skill sets are different. Why would it matter if C.J. Stroud played in a black Iowa helmet instead of a silver Ohio State?
Sure, Stroud has his limitations; he certainly doesn’t have the strongest arm in the class, and there have been some sacks that you’d blame him for. He also doesn’t have the highest ceiling of the group – that honor goes to Anthony Richardson – but let me be the first to tell you: none of that matters.
Stroud’s tape is, once again, a clinic on how to solve problems on a football field. The Ohio State offense got thrown a ton of different looks this season, and Stroud often had an answer.
Understanding pre-snap looks
Understanding pre-snap looks from a defense can be challenging for a quarterback, especially when they come in unique ways.
Stroud faced a long list of looks before the snap designed to throw him or his offensive line off the mark. In these situations, responsibility starts with the quarterback. Not only do they have to help their offensive line understand the pressure, but they also have to be aware of which wide receivers will get mismatches.
In the above play, Penn State presents Stroud with a challenging look. Not only does Penn State show six players blitzing at the link of scrimmage, but they also have a safety rotate late and provide an extra blitzer.
Navigating the play begins with the six players directly ahead of him, as Stroud and the offensive line need to determine which players to block. With the current setup, there’s a chance that Ohio State loses the numbers game if Penn State sends six and the Buckeyes keep five home.
Regardless, Stroud does an excellent job of understanding leverage and delivering a strike to his tight end for a big gain and a first down. Any wrong move could have resulted in a loss for the offense.
Earlier in the game, Penn State presented Stroud with another look that needed to be understood.
This one is two-fold because the defense is in the unique look with just two down linemen, and they send a unique blitz pattern after the snap. Stroud, however, is unfazed and does a great job of navigating both circumstances to throw a strike to Marvin Harrison, Jr. for a chunk play.
Both examples paint a real picture of what NFL defenses try and do to a quarterback. The reality is that few defenses give offenses a vanilla look pre-snap; instead, they’ll rely on the quarterback to navigate different pre-snap looks and still deliver strikes.
Think about the looks that Brian Flores presents defenses. Often, he’s seen throwing most of his players at the line of scrimmage, hoping to trick the offense into a miscommunication during the play.
Understanding coverages
While understanding pre-snap looks is a gift, quarterbacks still have to be able to drop back and throw the ball around.
For the most part, this means Stroud has to drop back and read the coverages in front of him. While this can be challenging, Stroud comes in with a good baseline of what to do.
Penn State gives Stroud a quarter quarter half — also known as cover 6 — look on this play. Ohio State comes out with a dagger concept to the top of the screen, making this a half-field read for Stroud.
Stroud is reading the strong-side hook defender (the inside of the three defenders) on this play, and he’ll have two options depending on how the defensive back reacts. If he stays back, Stroud is supposed to throw the ball to the drag route across the field; if he bites on the drag, the in-route will open up.
It may look like Stroud is late on this play, but he’s actually not because this play requires patience from Stroud. If Stroud throws it too early, it’s an interception, and the defensive back is going the other way. Instead, Stroud throws it at the perfect time, and it’s a huge gain.
In Ohio State’s win against Notre Dame, Stroud showcased his ability to process coverages quickly.
Notre Dame is showing a cover-2 look, and Stroud recognizes which receiver will be open. Stroud throws it before the safety in the deep half zone can break, allowing his wide receiver to have a clean catch.
Admittedly, this isn’t the hardest throw in the world, but not every throw has to be. Sometimes, the best throws are the ones that keep an offense on schedule and allow them to move the changes easier. For an offense like Minnesota’s with an elite wide receiver and quality tight end, keeping the offense on schedule should be a priority.
Handling pressure
What if Stroud has to make a play off-schedule, though? Quarterbacking isn’t always sunshine and rainbows, and teams still want a quarterback who can play outside of structure.
While some have expressed their doubts about Stroud’s ability to make plays outside of the pocket, I am here to tell you that it’s nonsense.
He absolutely can.
Don’t believe me? Watch this.
Stroud does a great job of evading the pressure brought by Jalen Carter (yes, that Jalen Carter) and delivering a strike on the move to his wide receiver.
Stroud did much of the same on the next play, sneaking through a few would-be sacks and delivering a ball into the back of the end zone for a touchdown.
Stroud’s entire game against Georgia is littered with similar situations. Playing against a defense that makes the Monstars from Space Jam look easy, Stroud wasn’t afforded the luxury of time in the pocket. His team needed plays, and he had to make them.
On Ohio State’s final drive, Stroud does a great job of avoiding the pressure and taking what the defense gives him. Even though Stroud isn’t the fastest quarterback in the class, he knows it’s time to make a play with his legs.
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, that’s problem-solving. And that’s playing quarterback at a high level. And trust me, it’s worth trading for.
