Grading NFL Draft picks the night they’re made is notoriously difficult.
While years of college ball and pre-draft workouts might give us a good idea how talented a prospect might be, there’s no way to know for sure until he takes the field on Sundays. JaMarcus Russell once looked like a franchise savior for the Raiders but turned out to be a cannon-armed bowling pin in the pros.
That means our first-round draft grades aren’t the be-all, end-all of a player’s career. They’re an educated guess based on the prospect’s talents, the way he’d fit with his new team and, most importantly, whether or not the perceived value of his draft slot makes sense. Some draft picks will look like bargains. Others will look like overpays. So we’re going to make some snap decisions based on which camps each guy fits into.
This is all to say this is a guide through the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft that will feature some spot-on instructions and a few wrong turns. But after months of preparation, we’re pretty confident in our grades… for now.
Also check out:
- The 10 best players available on Day 2
- Winners and losers from Day 1
- First-round trade tracker grades
- The best outfits from Day 1
1
Carolina Panthers (from Chicago Bears): Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
Young was the safe pick here but, without question, he was the best option for the Panthers after trading up to No. 1 overall. The former Alabama standout is arguably the most polished of all his draft-class peers and should give Carolina a great chance at immediate success.
There were (somewhat understandable) concerns about Young’s size at a listed 5-foot-10 and 194 pounds, but something tells me that’s been a “concern” his entire life. Look, when you can make pass rushers look silly in the backfield and embarrass defensive backs downfield, size doesn’t matter. You’ll find a way to thrive and stay on the field. From his throw processing to his instinct in the pocket, Young has all the tools to be a dynamite NFL quarterback for a long time. He’s the perfect person for Frank Reich to start a rebuild with. — Robert Zeglinski
Grade: A
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2
Houston Texans: C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State
Stroud was my safest quarterback pick in this draft — a guy who put up mind-bending numbers in college and was virtually un-rattleable in the pocket. He’s also bigger and more accurate than Young, and while he’s a pure pocket passer, he’s still capable of extending plays with his legs. No one in the NCAA was better at identifying tight windows downfield, then absolutely firing the ball through them.
The Texans badly needed a quarterback; stumbling through another season with Davis Mills as QB1 would have qualified as a naked act of aggression towards Houston fans. Now the team finally has a franchise cornerstone around which to build. — Christian D’Andrea
Grade: A
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3
Houston Texans (from Arizona Cardinals): Will Anderson Jr., LB, Alabama
Anderson was such a terror for the Crimson Tide, and we no longer do we have to wait to see this pass rusher at football’s highest level. In terms of fit, it’s also not a stretch to say Anderson landed in an ideal situation.
Houston head coach DeMeco Ryans is one of the game’s premier defensive minds. Part of the Texans making this trade was ensuring that Ryans would not only have his franchise quarterback but a franchise defensive player to mold, too. Anderson is a tornado of brute force off the edge, and he’ll be in Defensive Rookie of the Year conversations from the jump. — RZ
Grade: A
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4
Indianapolis Colts: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
First off, the Colts didn’t have to spend big to move up to No. 3 and pick their quarterback; that’s a plus. They also got the guy with the highest ceiling among all passers this spring.
But hooooo buddy, Richardson is a work in progress. His Josh Allen comparisons are legit, from his size, speed and arm strength to his frustrating inability to hit open targets (a 54.7 percent completion rate at Florida). Allen was able to level up, but it was a bit of a surprise when he did. Indianapolis is going to have to surround him with talent to maximize that enormous potential. Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman Jr. aren’t a bad start, but his development may hinge on bringing a Stefon Diggs-type influence into his orbit. — CD
Grade: B
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5
Seattle Seahawks (from Denver Broncos): Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
I can’t say I mind this pick entirely. Witherspoon is the top corner in this year’s draft. He’ll be a Day 1 starter with Pro Bowl potential just like his new teammate, Tariq Woolen. The Seahawks getting Witherspoon at this value in the top five could give them one of the league’s premier cornerback duos in due time.
I just wonder about the value of luxury selections. Seattle didn’t necessarily need a defensive back. Jalen Carter, who plays a position up front that the Seahawks desperately need, was ripe for the taking. At the very least, I have a hard time imagining how teams will complete passes against Seattle now. — RZ
Grade: B+
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6
Arizona Cardinals (from Detroit Lions via Los Angeles Rams): Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State
OK, clearly something spooked the Cardinals. This didn’t appear to be a draft with a surefire top offensive lineman, let alone a tackle guaranteed to be drafted in the top 10. But Arizona was compelled to burn some newfound draft riches and trek back up the board to better protect Kyler Murray.
That part makes sense, but was it worth giving up an extra top-35 selection to take Johnson over Broderick Jones or Peter Skoronski? The Cardinals have so many holes to fill a shotgun approach to this year’s picks feels like a much more useful strategy than a precise strike at sixth overall.
Johnson, to his credit, could be worth it. He looks every bit a franchise left tackle. He’s got massive size, long arms and quick feet. But he’s still growing as a blocker and isn’t a sure thing — which may not be what you want to hear when the Cardinals traded up for him. — CD
Grade: C+
7
Las Vegas Raiders: Tyree Wilson, DE, Texas Tech
With an aging Chandler Jones in the fold, the Raiders flat-out needed someone like Wilson. And for an athletically gifted prospect who could use some time to marinate more as a rotational player, playing behind Jones and Maxx Crosby will give him ample opportunity to develop.
On another team, where he may have had a larger role at the outset, Wilson would’ve had major bust potential. Instead, for once, the Raiders know what they’re doing and now have a defensive foundational piece with the approxtimate wingspan of Giannis Antetokounmpo. You could do a lot worse. — RZ
Grade: B
8
Atlanta Falcons: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
Phewwwwwwww. Phew.
Robinson is a glorious, complete prospect who can have an immediate impact in the NFL and fits perfectly with Atlanta’s run-first, grind-em-down approach for 2023. But so did Tyler Allgeier, the 2022 rookie who finished last season with 711 yards and 5.7 yards per carry over his final eight games. What’s his role gonna be going forward? What’s the value in taking Robinson over a cornerback like Christian Gonzalez? Or an edge rusher like Lukas Van Ness? Was there an opportunity to trade back and get him later?
Ultimately, Robinson is a stud whose skills are worthy of a top-10 pick, but his fit and positional value sure don’t seem to be. Maybe he carries the Falcons, like Derrick Henry in Tennessee, and Desmond Ridder becomes a viable starting quarterback against defenses devoted to stopping the run. Or maybe he only brings a little more value than a running back selected in the fifth round does, and the Atlanta defense struggles without a blue chip rookie reinforcement.
This could be brilliant. It could be terrible. Five decades of franchise history certainly suggests we should lean toward the latter. — CD
Grade: A. Or F. Man, I don’t know.
9
Philadelphia Eagles (from Chicago Bears via Carolina Panthers): Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia
The concerns with Jalen Carter are understandable. He wouldn’t have been available at No. 9 overall, with Chicago literally trading away the opportunity to draft him, if NFL teams didn’t have questions about the mammoth defensive tackle’s character. Those questions, in part, stem from Carter’s connection to a fatal January car crash in which a former Georgia teammate and recruiting staffer died. The defensive tackle pleaded no contest to charges of racing and reckless driving, both misdemeanors.
Despite that and a disappointing Pro Day, there’s no denying what Carter brings to the table talent-wise. He might have been the top prospect available without considering anything else. If they can maximize what Carter brings to the table as a disruptive force, slotting him on that Eagles’ defensive line is unfair. — RZ
Grade: A
10
Chicago Bears (from Philadelphia Eagles via New Orleans Saints): Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee
See what I’m saying about Paris Johnson? There’s a wide range of good-not-great blockers in this year’s draft, and Wright’s ceiling isn’t terribly different than Johnson’s or Broderick Jones’ (and either Jones or Skoronski will be available with the pick the Cardinals traded to the Lions).
But that’s harping on the past. Let’s look at the Bears’ future. Wright is a flexible tackle who has blindside potential but is capable of bringing immediate value on the right side across from 2022 rookie overachiever Braxton Jones. Chicago had a definite need up front after Justin Fields was sacked on more than 13 percent of his dropbacks in his first two seasons as a pro. I believe there were better options than Wright available, but this is a talented prospect and a common sense pick for a rising franchise. — CD
Grade: B+
11
Tennessee Titans: Peter Skoronski, G, Northwestern
If not for his shorter arms — can just more than 32 inches really be short? — we would’ve been talking about Skoronski as a “generational” plug-and-play anchor. A tackle in college, Skoronski will instead likely shift to featuring as a bowling ball guard for the Titans in the interior of their offensive line. Which, to be clear: is an excellent idea!
As the game continues to move forward with dominant interior pass rushers, players like Skoronski — with polish, pedigree and power — present a stellar counter. I will be shocked if this Northwestern Wildcat isn’t a household name amongst offensive line nerds by the middle of this decade. — RZ
Grade: B+
12
Detroit Lions (from Houston Texans via Cleveland Browns): Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama
Well, that certainly puts the Robinson selection into perspective. The recent relative rise in RB1 types has created a trend this draft, and it’s resulted in two tailbacks in the first 12 picks. The last time that happened was 2017 with Leonard Fournette and Christian McCaffrey, which mostly worked out.
I’m going to raise all the same questions here I did with the Falcons at No. 8. Detroit is a more complete team than Atlanta, but this is still a defense that ranked 28th in overall DVOA last fall. Christian Gonzalez and Lukas Van Ness are still on the board. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, a potent wideout who could sub in for Garrett Wilson for the first six games of the season, then make up a dynamite trio alongside Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Detroit also has the 18th, 34th, 48th and 55th picks left over the next round-plus. There are going to be several good running backs available there, but the crop of edge rushers and corners will be well picked-over by then.
Gibbs is very, very good. He averaged 6.1 yards per carry and had 44 catches last fall. But the Lions might regret taking him instead of beefing up their defense instead. — CD
Grade: C-
13
Green Bay Packers (from New York Jets): Lukas Van Ness, DE, Iowa
There’s something to be said for consistency. Aaron Rodgers is gone, and Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst is still drafting defenders with his premium picks. In this case, the Packers take on Lukas Van Ness, someone who is probably more of a project than instant impact player. In the long run, with a 6-foot-5, 272-pound frame, Van Ness might morph into a great pass rusher and key cog on a Green Bay defensive that now features several first-round picks, including Kenny Clark, Quay Walker and Rashan Gary.
In the worst case, Van Ness is more of the depth player who couldn’t start any games for Kirk Ferentz in 2022, and the Packers’ bold bet blows up in their face. — RZ
Grade: C+
14
Pittsburgh Steelers (from New England Patriots): Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
Jones has a high ceiling as a left tackle and has already proven capable of keeping Stetson Bennett’s jersey clean as a member of two different national championship teams. He is, ironically, the exact kind of blocker the Patriots could have used — and Pittsburgh swooped in and stole him at the low cost of a mid-fourth-round pick.
That’s a massive win for the Steelers, whose offensive line is in need of repair. Dan Moore is vulnerable at left tackle and may be better off in a swing position, but he’s capable of holding down the fort until Jones is ready. This is a high potential pickup at a position of need, and it’s enough to keep Pittsburgh rolling even pending Kenny Pickett’s growing pains in year two. — CD
Grade: A
15
New York Jets (from Green Bay Packers): Will McDonald IV, LB, Iowa State
Frankly, while the Jets already had a special defense, they weren’t exactly rostering dynamic pass rushers off the edge. Enter Will McDonald. You know, someone who could actually take advantage of the double- and triple-teams Quinnen Williams gets every play.
McDonald is a freak athlete, and it shows in his bend around the corner. He’s a little undersized for someone who will have to beat 300-plus-pound men on every play — the washouts on highlight reels will be brutal at first — but I don’t think New York will deploy him in a full-time capacity just yet. Get this young man in the weight room, and you might have a star in the making. — RZ
Grade: B
16
Washington Commanders: Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State
Forbes is a high-upside ballhawk with 14 interceptions in three seasons at Mississippi State. No one in FBS history has ever returned more interceptions for touchdowns. But he also weighs roughly 165 pounds, and he was ranked well below a suddenly sliding Christian Gonzalez on most draft boards (and Maryland’s Deonte Banks as well).
This pick fortifies a position of need with an electric player, but it’s fair to question whether Forbes was the best option here. Additionally, Washington could have turned to pass rushing help from Myles Murphy or the do-everything interior wizardry of Calijah Kancey. Forbes would have been an A grade at pick 25 or later. At No. 16, he’s merely pretty good. — CD
Grade: B-
17
New England Patriots (from Pittsburgh Steelers): Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
If you were to ask me to present a classic Bill Belichick defensive back — someone with a physical, no-nonsense demeanor and a nose for the ball — I would’ve shown you a picture of Gonzalez with no context. From the top down, Gonzalez is a complete cornerback who can erase receivers at the line of scrimmage and keep pace with even the fastest burners. Honestly, I’m pretty surprised a shutdown guy like this fell out of the top 10.
Plus, Gonzalez is just such so dang smart as a football player, he may as well scream “Do. Your. Job.” To trade down and still score this kind of defender is a Belichick masterclass. — RZ
Grade: A
18
Detroit Lions: Jack Campbell, LB, Iowa
So here’s the thing. Jahmyr Gibbs? Great player. Jack Campbell? Potentially even better. The reigning Butkus Award winner was the nation’s top linebacker and showed off wonderful agility and strength at the NFL combine. I have no doubt about his ability to be a great pro over the next decade.
But Campbell was in the mix at the top of a solid, but not overwhelming corps of off-ball linebackers. The Lions could have waited for him with one of their three second-round picks or opted for comparable inside linebackers like Drew Sanders or Trenton Simpson there.
Drafting Gibbs at 12 cost them shots at Van Ness, Forbes and Gonzalez. Drafting Campbell may mean passing up higher-rated prospects like Myles Murphy, Deonte Banks or Calijah Kancey. The players Detroit is selecting are very good! The value they’re getting at the picks they’re using to select them is not.
But hey, Campbell’s one of my favorite players in this draft. That’s worth at least a “B” on its own. — CD
Grade: B
19
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Calijah Kancey, DT, Pitt
Because he’s a defensive tackle from Pittsburgh who weighs just barely more than 280 pounds, Kancey has already drawn Aaron Donald comparisons. I, personally, wouldn’t go as far as to invoke the name of the one best defensive players of all time, but I can see the framework. It’s not lazy, per se. That’s because Kancey was incredibly productive for the Panthers, using his smaller stature for leverage over poor offensive linemen in the ACC.
The athletic profile is also special as he, wait for it, tested almost identically to Donald. This pick is a reach for a player who is likened to be thrown around, but I don’t mind Tampa Bay’s chutzpah. — RZ
Grade: B-
20
Seattle Seahawks: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
Geno Smith rejoices. After fading down the stretch last season, it was clear the Seahawks needed to bring him more support to keep him churning through all 17 games. And with Tyler Lockett now 30 years old, it doesn’t hurt to have a contingency plan in place for the valuable veteran, either. Smith-Njigba fits both roles, pairing with Lockett and D.K. Metcalf to give Seattle a truly intimidating big three at wideout.
Smith-Njigba had five catches last season and still wound up 2023’s top receiving prospect. That’s how good he is. He runs smooth routes that offer no inside information to opposing cornerbacks, breaking away and creating space from nothing. He’s also got absurd hands and body control along the sidelines that will soon be immortalized in a string of annoying Next Gen Stats commercials. He and Witherspoon keep the Seahawks’ stout in the post-Russell Wilson era. — CD
Grade: A
21
Los Angeles Chargers: Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
The Chargers aren’t messing around. They want Justin Herbert to take the next step, and Johnston will be a vital piece in that grand design. As Keenan Allen ages like an exposed apple, Los Angeles needed an insurance policy in the form of a new weapon like this.
There will be questions about Johnston’s “basketball player” style of play next to fellow hooper Mike Williams, especially considering the Chargers could use more natural separators than anything. But Johnston can be a bona fide No. 1, someone who profiles as more than a glorified rebounder on jump balls. I can’t confirm it for sure, but I think Herbert pumped his fist when he saw this pick. — RZ
Grade: A
22
Baltimore Ravens: Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College
Three straight wideouts, three straight A grades.
Flowers would have been a proper selection in the low teens, so the Ravens getting him here constitutes a minor bargain. Now, he joins a receiving corps with a 31-year-old Odell Beckham Jr., an oft-injured Rashod Bateman and a sometimes-explosive Devin Duvernay.
There’s potential for that group to step up or remain in the muck, but Flowers can be a rising tide that makes everyone better. He’s a player who finds ways to win no matter how many defenders are thrown his way. He had nearly 500 more yards from scrimmage than anyone else on the Boston College roster, leaving opposing defenses with little to plan for but the rangy wideout. He consistently roasted cornerbacks with crisp routes, strong separation and the instincts to get to the ball first. Congratulations on re-signing with Baltimore, Lamar Jackson. The Ravens got you a present.
Grade: A-
23
Minnesota Vikings: Jordan Addison, WR, USC
Getting Addison in the late first round is a wonderful value for the Vikings. Formerly as USC’s most productive receiver, the go-to man for Caleb Williams, Addison largely had his way with most of the Pacific Coast teams. He’s only available here because of a disappointing 40-yard dash at the Scouting Combine and a slight redemption at a dreary, wet USC Pro Day.
Now, Addison gets to be the speedster complement to Justin Jefferson, pro football’s top boundary weapon. I wouldn’t be sleeping well tonight if I was a cornerback in the NFC North. — RZ
Grade: B+
24
New York Giants (from Jacksonville Jaguars): Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland
Banks was my No. 4 cornerback in 2023; here the Giants get him as the fourth defensive back off the board but ahead of my No. 3 guy Joey Porter Jr. That’s only a problem when you consider New York made a minor move up the draft board with two elite corners available, and it’s a minor quibble. After a run on wideouts left Daniel Jones with limited options, addressing a 29th-ranked defense made perfect sense.
Banks has tremendous speed and quick hips that allow him to turn and run with anyone. His closing speed erases out routes near the sideline. The cost to secure him was minimal, so all in all this worked out pretty well for the G-men. — CD
Grade: B+
25
Buffalo Bills (from Jacksonville Jaguars via New York Giants): Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah
I have little doubt Kincaid will be a productive NFL pass catcher in some respect. What he doesn’t offer as a blocker, he makes up for as a matchup nightmare. But this Buffalo fit is so… strange.
The Bills already have Dawson Knox, a similar player, and they don’t nearly throw the ball enough to him. Why would that change with Kincaid? How are they possibly going to utilize both guys? If I didn’t know any better, the Bills saw that run of receivers and grew way too desperate to help Josh Allen. And that’s… fine. Just, sure. This selection is the equivalent of fitting a round peg into a hole that already has its piece. — RZ
Grade: C
26
Dallas Cowboys: Mazi Smith, DT, Michigan
Smith is a “rich getting richer” pick for a defense that ranked second in overall DVOA last fall. While it was surprising to see Jerry Jones pass up on a tight end who looks a lot like Jason Witten (Michael Mayer), there’s no denying Smith’s value as a gap-shooting tackle up front. Nose tackle was a definite need with Johnathan Hankins and Quinton Bohanna currently penciled in as the team’s top two at the position.
Smith is raw, but he can learn the ropes on the fly for a team talented enough to thrive despite his growing pains up front — even if Bryan Bresee or Keeanu Benton would have been better suited for an immediate role in Dallas. — CD
Grade: B-
27
Jacksonville Jaguars (from Buffalo Bills via New York Giants): Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma
The Jaguars had their hand forced after Cam Robinson’s suspension for violating the NFL’s performance-enhancing drug policy. Waiting to take a starting tackle any longer would’ve meant a sizable chasm in front of Trevor Lawrence. Folks: That is a no-go.
Harrison isn’t a perfect prospect by any means, but he has quality size and length and experience playing both tackle positions. His limited athleticism will leave him liable to get abused by some of the superstar pass rushers in the AFC, but he’s good enough to keep the ship afloat in Robinson’s absence. Not a high bar, I know.
Alas, while Jacksonville still has the same interior offensive line issues that ended its season last year, it couldn’t afford to have any off either end. — RZ
Grade: B
28
Cincinnati Bengals: Myles Murphy, DE, Clemson
There was plenty of temptation for the Bengals when it came to this pick. They need safeties, and every one was still on the board. They need tight end help, and only Kincaid has been selected so far. A cornerback like Joey Porter Jr. would have been a boon as well.
Instead, Cincinnati opted for the tried and true production of Murphy, a former five-star recruit that consistently made an impact throughout three years at Clemson. He’s a big, fast edge rusher who can use that speed to win inside or slice to the interior to collapse pockets.
Now, he gets to team with Trey Hendrickson and introduce chaos for a defense that’s found ways to limit the AFC’s top passers in big moments. — CD
Grade: B+
29
New Orleans Saints (from San Francisco 49ers via Miami Dolphins via Denver Broncos): Bryan Bresee, DT, Clemson
In a just world, someone of Bresee’s baseline — a solid, if unspectacular Yeoman’s defensive takcle — wouldn’t have to wait until the end of the first round to find his pro football home. But here we are. Bresee won’t wow you with raw explosiveness or power. That’s not his game, and it never has been.
At the risk of sounding like a cliche, he will punch in, carry his hard hat and lunch pail with pride, and put in a good day’s work grinding out against guards and centers. The Saints are not in a position to be choosers. Dennis Allen needs solid youthful players and Bresee fits that bill. — RZ
Grade: A
30
Philadelphia Eagles: Nolan Smith, LB, Georgia
Howie Roseman loves Georgia defenders with ludicrous athletic profiles. Last year, it was Jordan Davis and Nakobe Dean. This year, it’s Jalen Carter and Smith.
Smith, like Davis in 2022, starred at the combine after running at sub-4.4-second 40-yard dash time as an edge rusher. While that didn’t translate to big numbers amidst a stacked Georgia defense (and a torn pectoral didn’t help), it’s clear he has the tools to be a nuisance on Sundays.
That’s huge for the Eagles, who need to revamp an aging pass rush. Brandon Graham’s presence will afford him time to add a little more bulk as the core of the 2021 national champions continues to take root in Philadelphia.
Grade: A-
31
Kansas City Chiefs: Felix Anudike-Uzomah, DE, Kansas State
Another notch in the belt for the defending Super Bowl champions, but what else is new? Anudike-Uzomah spent the last two years terrorizing the Big 12 with uncanny playmaking ability around the quarterback. There are questions about a guy who is more of a one-trick pony for now, but making a living in front of signal-callers is a great foundation to start with.
Anudike-Uzomah will join a suddenly very deep Chiefs defensive line rotation and get some needed seasoning in the process. He is technically a luxury pick for Kansas City, but you can never have enough competent edge defenders in an AFC brimming with difference makers under center. This kind of drafting process helps defend the title belt. — RZ
Grade: B+
32
Miami Dolphins: Forfeit pick
As the result of a months-long investigation into accusations of intentionally losing games and tampering, the Dolphins lost both their 2023 first-round pick and a 2024 third-round pick.
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