The Minnesota Vikings can approach finding a quarterback of the future in the 2023 NFL Draft in two ways.
They can take one in the first round (either after a trade-up or at their No. 23 pick). A trade would likely include multiple first-round picks, including this year’s selection, and could mean mortgaging their future for an unproven commodity with a high ceiling.
The Vikings could also pass on a quarterback on Thursday and take one later in the draft. This option offers no production guarantees, but it would also mean fewer assets (and an opportunity to address the other needs).
While opportunities to select the next Dak Prescott, Brock Purdy, or Tom Brady exists, there are no guarantees that the next starting quarterback will be on the board late in the draft. Instead, it’s more likely that the Vikings would get an affordable backup signal-caller with team control.
Which is fine, by the way. Finding a reliable backup quarterback is a challenging task. Teams hardly hit on non-first-round signal-callers, and there’s a hefty premium for backup quarterbacks that an offense can trust.
The Vikings can maximize their late-round quarterback value in a few ways.
1. Value Experience
Bill Parcell’s rules for drafting a quarterback are outdated for the first round, but they do fit when selecting backup quarterbacks.
Brock Purdy, Skylar Thompson and Bailey Zappe were the only day three rookies quarterbacks to start a game in the NFL last season, and they shared a common trait coming out of college: they were both experienced.
Zappe was a five-year starter between his time at FCS Houston Baptist and Western Kentucky and won his fair share of games between the two schools. In his senior season, Zappe and the Hilltoppers won nine games, including their bowl game against Appalachian State.
Purdy and Thompson were multi-year starters in the Big 12, starting a combined 86 games.
Purdy, for example, started eight games as a true freshman and led Iowa State to a 6-1 record. By the time his career ended, Purdy had thrown 1,467 passes over his four seasons and knew how to navigate the field because of it.
It’s not a coincidence that teams value experienced quarterbacks late in the draft, either. Playing backup quarterback requires a certain tier of experience because you’re often thrown into situations with little preparation.
UCLA’s Dorian Thompson-Robinson benefits in this case. Like Purdy, Thompson-Robinson has thrown close to 1,400 passes and has been a four-year starter for the Bruins. However, Thompson-Robinson only started five games in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to a shortened Pac-12 season.
2. Look for one who goes through progressions
Every time a backup quarterback comes into the game, you’ll hear something about “simplifying” the playbook. Whatever that means.
For the most part, this involves stripping a playbook to basic route combinations and reads, which allows a backup quarterback to process less and play a little more freely.
When Jimmy Garoppolo went down this season, Kyle Shanahan went to a more basic playbook for Brock Purdy, which allowed him to thrive. Their playbook relied heavily on their playmakers, especially the three-headed monster of Deebo Samuel, Georgia Kittle, and Christian McCaffery, to get open.
This part is entirely personal, but finding a quarterback who can go through his progressions can maximize his floor as a backup.
Jaren Hall will likely benefit from this rule because BYU has run a lot of pro concepts.
Hall enters the NFL understanding what pro concepts look like. He knows how to read coverages and, more importantly, how to throw the ball based on those looks.
It may also leave some concern for a quarterback like Jake Haener. Haener has shown the willingness to read the entire field like you’d want, but those reps have been limited. He’s primarily played in offenses that rely on quick and simple reads, which leaves question marks about his ability to play the entire field at the next level.
3. Health is wealth
Losing your starting quarterback is a disaster. Losing your backup quarterback is DEFCON 2 levels of danger.
The Miami Dolphins probably didn’t want to play Skylar Thompson last season, but injuries to Tua Tagovailoa and Teddy Bridgewater forced the issue. The same could be said for the 49ers, who lost Trey Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo.
The cliche that availability is a player’s best ability remains true here.
With teams choosing to keep just two quarterbacks on their 53-man roster, your backup quarterback should be able to stay healthy and available. That’s not really up for question, either.
As gusty as Fresno State’s Jake Haener is, the fact that he’s battled his fair share of minor injuries doesn’t paint a pretty picture. Last season, Haener suffered an ankle injury in Fresno State’s third game and didn’t return for four weeks. In 2021, he played through a hip injury in their win against UCLA.
Being a gamer is a good trait, yes, but it also comes with the inherent discussion that having a backup quarterback with a concerning injury history isn’t a positive sign.
Which QBs meet all three rules?
I can hear all of you asking me which projected day three quarterbacks fit into these “rules”?
Well, unfortunately, there aren’t many.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Jake Haener kind of fit into two of them (experience and progressions), but both have struggled with injuries. Both would fit the role if you’re willing to look past the third rule, but I’m not.
Houston’s Clayton Tune has the experience and has stayed healthy, but he ran an air raid adjacent offense in college, which limits his ability to process the entire field.
Here are a few quarterbacks who do fit:
- Georgia QB Stetson Bennett: Once a walk-on, Bennett quickly became Georgia’s starting quarterback. Bennett was a two-year starter for the Bulldogs and won two National Championships. He remained relatively healthy over his college career and has shown the ability to read the field at a high-enough level. Bennett will likely go around the 5th or 6th round of the NFL Draft.
- Shepherd QB Tyson Bagent: Bagent started in 53 games for Division II Shepherd over five seasons, meaning he’s more than just experienced. Shepherd ran a lot of run-pass options last season, which means he didn’t have to read the field as often, but he has shown the ability to process at a good enough level. Injury history isn’t as readily available for Division II football, but Bagent started all 30 games over the last two seasons. Bagent is likely a 6th or 7th-round selection.
- BYU QB Jaren Hall: Hall started 25 games for BYU and was a two-year starter for the Cougars. Injuries are a little concerning, but he’s remained healthier than other quarterbacks on day three. Hall can already read the field at a high level, which means he should be able to slot in as a backup quarterback. Hall will likely be an early day three selection.
