The Minnesota Vikings are set to make a trade up in the 2024 NFL draft to go get their quarterback of the future. When you look at trading up in the NFL draft, there are a lot of things to consider.
Who are you moving up for?
How strong is the draft class this year and next year?
Will the team you trade with view future assets as less than current assets?
Historically, future assets cost a round less than assets in hand. That is a likely reason why the Vikings ended up making a trade for the 23rd overall pick for this year. It would theoretically make a trade down more enticing for a team in the top five. When devaluing picks, the idea is that they get devalued one round per year out. That would make a 2025 first round pick worth a second and a 2026 first round pick worth a third.
With this information in mind, how do we quantify the quarterback tax? Is there one and how much is it? I took a look at the quarterback tax by looking at both valuing all the picks at their current year price and by devaluing them in future years going back to 2012. For this, we are using the Rich Hill trade chart which is based on historical precedent with draft pick trades.
2023: Carolina Panthers
Panthers get: First overall pick (1,000)
Bears get: 9th overall pick (387), 61st overall pick (86), 2024 first-round pick (121), 2025 second-round pick (25), WR D.J. Moore (121) T
he Panthers traded up to get Bryce Young. For this one, we are placing a value of the 48th overall pick (mid-second-round pick). The difference here is 260 points or the 21st overall pick gained by the Panthers. Without devaluing picks, it’s only a 20-point gain for the Bears, or the 125th overall pick.
2023: Houston Texans
Texans get: Third overall pick (514), 105th overall pick (32)
Cardinals get: 12th overall pick (347), 33rd overall pick (180), 2024 first-round pick (121), 2024 third-round pick (25)
After selecting C.J. Stroud at second overall, the Texans moved back up to third overall to select Will Anderson.
There will be some disparity here as well. The Texans got back a return of 546 points while giving up 673 points. The difference in value here is 127 points, or the 46th overall pick. Without devaluing picks, it’s significantly different. The Cardinals got 888 points, which is valued at 342 points or the 12th overall pick.
2021: San Francisco 49ers
49ers get: Third overall pick (717)
Dolphins get: 12th overall pick (347), 2022 first-round pick (121), 2022 third-round pick (25), 2023 first-round pick (56)
The 49ers moved up to select one of three quarterbacks and ended up taking Trey Lance. This is going to have the biggest difference between having future picks devalued and not. The 49ers only gave up 549 points with the difference being the value of the 35th overall pick. If you don’t devalue picks, they gave up a haul of 1,013 points which ended up being the value of the 17th overall pick.
2021: Miami Dolphins
Dolphins get: Sixth overall pick (446), 156th overall pick (11)
Eagles get: 12th overall pick (347), 123rd overall pick (21), 2022 first-round pick (121)
The Dolphins traded up to get wide receiver Jaylen Waddle after trading back from three to 12 with the 49ers minutes before.
This was a wild trade because the Dolphins had traded down from third overall to 12th overall less than a half hour prior. They gained 457 and gave up 489 points, the value of the 105th overall pick. Take out the devaluing of future picks and it’s 673, or the value difference of the 27th overall pick.
2021: Chicago Bears
Chicago gets: 11th overall pick (358)
New York Giants get: 20th overall pick (269), 164th overall pick (10), 2022 first-round pick (121), 2022 fourth-round pick (12)
The Bears traded up to select quarterback Justin Fields. The Bears ended up giving the Giants 412 points, a 54 point difference or the 82nd overall pick. Take out the devaluing of future picks and it’s 609 points or the difference of the 22nd overall pick.
2018: New York Jets
Jets get: Third overall pick (514)
Colts get: Sixth overall pick (446), 37th overall pick (162), 49th overall pick (118), 2019 second-round pick (56)
The Jets traded up to get one of five quarterbacks and guaranteed themselves one of three quarterbacks and selected Sam Darnold. The Jets overpaid to get their “franchise quarterback” by a significant amount. The Colts got 782 points, a difference of 268 points, the value of the 20th overall pick.
If you take out the future pick devaluation, the Colts got 847 points, the value of the 13th overall pick
2018: Buffalo Bills
Buffalo gets: Seventh overall pick (426), 255th overall pick (1)
Tampa Bay gets: 12th overall (347), 53rd overall pick (106), 56th overall pick (98)
The Bills initially traded up from 22 to 12 by sending left tackle Cordy Glenn to the Cincinnati Bengals so they had ammunition to go and get quarterback Josh Allen.
This is one of the easier ones to calculate since all the picks were in the same year. The Bills gave up 551 points to get 427 points, a 124 point disparity which is the same as the 47th overall pick. It’s worth noting that this quarterback class was viewed as historic.
2018: Arizona Cardinals
Cardinals get: 10th overall pick (369)
Raiders get: 15th overall pick (315), 79th overall pick (57), and 152nd overall pick (11)
The Cardinals made the trade up to get Josh Rosen. It was a relatively even trade, with the Raiders getting 383 points to the 369 they gave up, which is equal to the 141st draft pick.
2016: St. Louis Rams
Rams get: First overall pick (1,000), 113th overall pick (27), 177th overall pick (8)
Titans get: 15th overall pick (315), 43rd overall pick (138), 45th overall pick (131), 76th overall pick (61), 2017 first-round pick (121), 2017 third-round pick (25)
The Rams made the biggest trade-up to get the first overall pick in NFL history to select quarterback Jared Goff. This one is going to be fascinating to look at. The Rams got 1,035 points of value with the Titans getting 791 points, giving the Rams a surplus value of the 23rd overall pick.
If you take out the future value, the Titans had a surplus value of 36 points, or the 99th overall pick.
2016: Philadelphia Eagles
Eagles get: Second overall pick (717), 2017 fourth-round pick (12)
Browns get: Eighth overall pick (406), 77th overall pick (60), 100th overall pick (36), 2017 first-round pick (121), 2018 second-round pick (25)
The Eagles ended up trading Byron Maxwell and Kiko Alonso to the Dolphins to move up from 13 to 8 so they could move up for Carson Wentz.
This is an interesting one. The Eagles technically gave up 648 points with the Browns giving up 729 points, giving the Eagles an 81-point advantage or the 64th overall pick. However, if you don’t take out the future picks being devalued, the Browns got 928 points, which would be worth the 29th overall pick.
2014: Buffalo Bills
Bills get: Fourth overall pick (491)
Browns get: Ninth overall pick (387), 2015 first-round pick (121), 2015 fourth-round pick (12)
The Bills paid a lot to move up five spots to select wide receiver Sammy Watkins. Per the Rich Hill trade chart, the Browns got a value of 29 points which is the value of the 110th pick in the fourth round. Without devaluing future picks, the Bills gave up 717 points or the value of the 25th overall pick
2013: Miami Dolphins
Dolphins get: Third overall pick (514)
Raiders get: 12th overall pick (347), 42nd overall pick (142)
The Dolphins paid a small price to move up nine spots for edge rusher Dion Jordan. It ended up being one of the weakest draft classes in recent memory. With the draft class being one of the weakest in recent memory, the Dolphins actually won the trade by 25 points, or pick 116 in the fourth round.
2012: Washington Commanders
Washington gets: Second overall pick (717)
St. Louis gets: Sixth overall pick (446), 39th overall pick (153), 2013 first-round pick (121), 2014 first-round pick (56)
The Commanders traded the farm to move up for Robert Griffin III.
The disparity in points for the Rich Hill trade chart is only 59 points or the value of the 78th overall pick. Now, if you have those future picks valued as a mid first round pick instead of being devalued in future years, the value would be 1,209 points or a 492 point disparity, or the fourth overall pick.
How does the data shake out?
This is an interesting one to parse out because there are a lot of different data points to look at. First, let’s look at the trades up for a quarterback. The first column will have future picks devalued and the second column will be without those picks devalued.
| 59 | 492 |
| -81 | 199 |
| -244 | 36 |
| 14 | X |
| 124 | X |
| 268 | 333 |
| 54 | 251 |
| -168 | 296 |
| 127 | 342 |
| -260 | 20 |
| -107 | 246.125 |
When it comes to devaluing picks, teams trading away the higher pick lost 107 points on average or the value of the 52nd overall pick. On the flip side, if you just take the original value of the picks, it’s a surplus of 246 points, or the 23rd overall pick. The standard is to devalue one round per year out, so a first-round pick two years out is worth a third-round pick. I always used the 16th pick in the round to keep consistency across the board. In this timeframe, only four non quarterback trades were made to move into the top 10.
| -25 | X |
| 29 | 226 |
| 32 | 216 |
| 127 | 342 |
| 40.75 | 261.33 |
Non quarterback trades are only a 40 point gain for the team trading down which is worth the 95th overall pick. However, when you take away the future pick devaluation process, it’s worth the 21st overall pick. What can we make of this data? The tax isn’t that much based on historical precedent. It’s only a 16 point difference with trades that don’t devalue picks (135th overall pick) but a major difference when you devalue picks. That difference is 66.25 points (72nd overall pick).
A late fourth/early fifth when devaluing future picks or an early third-round pick if you don’t is a negligible difference but it does prove that there is a slight quarterback tax for moving up to get a quarterback. Is that worth it? Absolutely, especially if it ends up hitting.
