Teams will often view their draft board, look at the asking price and then determine if it’s worth moving up or down in a trade come NFL draft weekend.
Then, there’s Nick Caserio, who might as well be wearing one of those old-school signs that hung on the door of restaurants and mom-and-pop shops growing up titled ‘open for business.’ He’s always looking to wheel and deal for the right price over the three-day draft period.
Since being hired in 2021, Caserio has made at least one trade during the first three rounds. Last season, the Texans’ GM reached a new level when he orchestrated eight draft-day trades to secure Houston’s historic rookie class.
No one in The Loop is complaining. Few teams walk out of a draft with a franchise quarterback and pass-rusher, so consider the first round of last year’s draft a gold mine in Houston with C.J. Stroud and Will Anderson Jr. as the foundation of a new era.
Houston does not have a first-round pick entering Thursday night. Not because of a previous trade from years before, but because Caserio already swapped picks with Minnesota last month. The 2025 second-round selection acquired in the deal was used in the Stefon Diggs trade, so consider the four-time Pro Bowler the new Day 1 pick.
And Caserio’s not done. He made it clear last week that for the right prospect, Houston’s willing to bargain.
“We have nine picks as of Thursday night,” Caserio said. “We’ll see if that changes or stays static. Given our history, it will probably change at some point.”
While most fans likely are monitoring trade options back into the first round, Houston does most of its work on Day 2. Nico Collins, Christian Harris, John Metchie III, Juice Scruggs, and Tank Dell were all selected because of trades in their respective classes. Former first-round pick Kenyon Green was taken two picks after the Texans’ initial pick at No. 13 following a trade down with Philadelphia.
Moving down two spots also gave Houston the draft capital to move up for Metchie and Harris.
Caserio said the Texans have nine picks right now. It could be more by Saturday. It could be less. Regardless, here are six legitimate trade scenarios that could set the tone on draft weekend for the AFC South champions.
Trade up into first round with 49ers
DETAILS:
Texans receive: No. 31, No. 211
49ers receive: No. 42, No. 86, No. 123, No. 188
There’s a history between the two franchises. DeMeco Ryans began his coaching career under Kyle Shanahan while working his way up to defensive coordinator. This offseason, the Texans sent defensive lineman Maliek Collins out west in exchange for a seventh-round pick.
Not to mention, how many former 49ers players have won a Houston jersey over the past two years? Three? Five?
Like Caserio’s mentioned, it’s all about the right prospect. Players like Illinois defensive lineman Johnny Newton or Alabama cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry have been names linked to Houston since the start of the draft cycle. They also are fringe Day 1 prospects heading into Thursday night.
In this scenario, Caserio gets aggressive in adding a player he can’t afford to see play else. Moving up 11 spots will be a tad expensive in quantity, but there aren’t many players who fit Ryans’ defense like McKinstry and Newton.
Houston grabs a Day 1 starter and a late-round selection. Maybe both picks end up sending the Texans to New Orleans next February?
Trade down with Pittsburgh Steelers
Texans receive: No. 51, No. 84, No. 98,
Steelers receive: No. 42, No. 86, No. 127
Sometimes trading down has its perks. This is one of those times, and honestly, a pretty substantial overhaul only to move back nine spots.
Pittsburgh and second-round receivers go together like mashed potato volcanoes and dino nuggets. Prospects like Florida State’s Keon Coleman, Oregon’s Troy Franklin, Washington’s JaLynn Polk and South Carolina’s Xavier Legette all could be replacements for Diontae Johnson, but might not last until pick No. 51.
Say Houston misses out on the big names at corner and defensive tackle? Moving down not only provides better value for who is available but also creates move variety in Round 3. Instead of having three picks on Day 2, the Texans land four picks and two per round.
Even then, who’s to say Caserio won’t use pick No. 98 to move closer to No. 75? He did last season to keep Dell in Houston long-term.
Trade up with Washington Commanders
DETAILS:
Texans receive: No. 36, No. 152
Commanders receive: No. 42, No. 123, No. 247
Remember how Newton and McKinstry were mentioned as potential Day 1 trade-up targets? Well, what would happen if they fell to Day 2? Caserio would at least to inquire about adding one of them, right?
Washington has countless draft capital at its disposal and could be looking to add more selections to build a better package. In this scenario, Houston jumps teams like Los Angeles, Carolina and Tennessee to secure its next face of the franchise. The Texans give up a fourth-round selection, but they walk away with a pick in the fifth.
The seventh-round pick is just for good measure. It could be worth it for a talent like Netwon, McKinstry or even Georgia’s Kamari Lassiter.
Trade back with Green Packers
DETAILS:
Texans receive: No. 58, No. 88, No. 91, No. 169, No. 212
Packers receive: No. 42, No. 86, No. 127
People genuinely don’t understand how loaded the Packers are in draft capital. As good as the Texans were last season behind Stroud and Anderson, the same goes for Green Bay with Jordan Love.
The Packers play in a much improved NFC North. Minnesota spent money, Detriot was a quarter away from reaching the Super Bowl and Chicago is about to land what hopefully is a franchise quarterback in Caleb Williams.
Moving down 16 spots is a risk, but it doesn’t take Houston out of the running for a stout defensive tackle prospect. It also provides the right amount of capital to move up and target a player who could be an option around picks No. 54-No. 56.
With the trade, the Texans would also walk into Round 3 with two picks instead of one. Caserio cooks in the third and might even be willing to move down again just to grab more draft picks.
Hauling in five picks to use in your favor for trades? That’s a win-win for everyone.
Swing big, trade up with Miami Dolphins
DETAILS:
Texans receive: No. 21
Dolphins receive: No. 42, No. 86, No. 188, 2025 third-round pick
Someone brought up this idea last night, and it’s hard to imagine the Texans moving down 19 spots with the Vikings only to eventually move up two spots with the Dolphins. Crazier stuff has happened in the past, so nothing should be off the table.
Houston would likely have one or two players on watch here. Maybe someone like Alabama’s Terrion Arnold or Texas’ Byron Murphy falls into range and now Ryans is pacing back-and-forth losing his mind at headquarters. Murphy, the Big 12’s defensive lineman of the Year, was a fan favorite at pick No. 23 after Christian Wilkins inked a long-term deal with the Raiders.
A trade shouldn’t be on the table if Murphy isn’t there, but it’s the draft. No one has any idea what happens in war rooms, and while fans salivate over prospects, scouts might have a different feel. It wouldn’t be crazy to see Caserio move up this high for a player he covets. Two years ago, he traded up 24 spots to grab Metchie, giving up a third-round pick and two fourth-round selections to secure the bag.
Call the Cardinals in Round 3
DETAILS:
Texans receive: No. 66, No. 186
Cardinals receive: No. 86, No. 123, 2025 third-round pick
Every year since being named the GM, Caserio has traded up in Round 3. In 2021, it was for Collins. A year later, it was for Harris. Last April, he moved up four spots for Dell.
You can almost bet that the fourth-year GM is going for it again if the right player is there.
Everyone knows Caserio and Cardinals general manager Monti Ossenfort’s relationship from their 10-plus years in New England. It played a factor in Houston beating out several teams last April for the No. 3 pick to acquire Anderson.
Say Ohio State’s Michael Hall Jr. or Texas’ T’Vondre Sweat falls to Round 3. Both are fits for Houston’s front seven and could be bargain buys around picks No. 65-70. The Texans might have to give up a third-round pick next season, but they were willing to part ways with the selection when the Chargers were offering up Keenan Allen.
Instead of adding a prominent pass-catcher on a one-year deal, the Texans secure the right defensive tackle for four seasons on a team-friendly contract. That’s a win for an emerging top-10 defense heading into what many consider to be a dominant season.
