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The Guardian - US
The Guardian - US
Sport
Graham Searles

NFL divisional round predictions: which No 1 seed is set for an unpleasant shock?

Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Caleb Williams, Bo Nix.
Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Caleb Williams, Bo Nix. Composite: Getty Images

Buffalo Bills v Denver Broncos (Saturday, 4.30pm ET/9.30pm GMT)

What the Bills need to do to win: Keep winning short-yardage situations. The tush push on fourth down that propelled Josh Allen 10 yards and helped secure Buffalo’s win over Jacksonville last weekend epitomised how the Bills dominated the game’s crucial moments. The Bills converted four of their five third downs with four yards or to go last Sunday, and they finished fifth in third-down rate in the regular season in the same situations. Denver were eighth this season in third-and-short defensive efficiency (50.6%). Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady will have to find ways to create leverage for Allen and the Bills in those vital moments to keep the scoreboard moving.

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