When playing short slates in the DFS market, a player or two continuously crawls out of the woodwork to finish on the winning roster. On Sunday, each matchup is a run-back of a game played in December. Miami lost to the Bills (32-29) in Week 15, Minnesota held on over the Giants (27-24) at home in Week 16, and last week the Bengals beat Baltimore (27-15) in Cincinnati. In the NFL, no two games are the same, so what happened in the previous matchup mostly won’t happen again.
MORE: NFL DFS Wild-Card Saturday Slate
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
Based on the midweek reports, the Dolphins will play this game with their third-string quarterback (Skylar Thompson) behind center with Tua Tagovailoa ruled out Teddy Bridgewater dealing with a dislocated pinky. The downgrade puts Miami in a challenging position to move the ball and win the game. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are rated as top-five wideouts on Sunday based on their salaries, but they almost look only playable if someone is looking to go against the grain. Hill had nine catches for 69 yards and one score vs. the Bills on the road. To be in play, he needs more than 100 yards receiving, along with similar catches and a touchdown to fill his salary bucket. Waddle comes into the game with a slight ankle issue. He beat Buffalo for a long touchdown, leading to a solid day (3/114/1).
With Raheem Mostert expected to miss this week’s game, Jeff Wilson will get the bulk of touches for the Dolphins. The Bills didn’t allow a touchdown to a tight end all season. Miami barely used their tight ends this year (49/496/6 on 75 targets), except for Week 18 (9/90 on 11 targets). So, seeing a Dolphins’ tight end touchdown in the game wouldn't surprise me.
Buffalo relied on Dawson Knox (6/98/1) and Josh Allen (381 combined yards with four scores) to beat Miami in Week 15. Stefon Diggs has a reasonable price point and an excellent chance to be on the winning roster based on his expected output (7/89/1) and 2022 body of work (108/1,429/11). There hasn’t been a Gabe Davis sighting since Week 10 (6/93/1), but the best game of his career came last season in the postseason (8/201/4). Miami has risk defending tight ends (99/954/9), giving Knox a chance to extend his scoring streak to five games. Last week, Buffalo gave James Cook the most running back snaps for the first time all year. This change could be a hint of a breakthrough game.
Many teams will start with Allen, Diggs, and either Davis or Knox. The progressive Bills’ stack may end up being Allen/Cook/Buffalo defense. If Bridgewater can start, this game has a better chance of high scoring. Isaiah McKenzie has a hamstring issue, possibly giving Khalil Shakir a bump in playing time.
New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings
In the first matchup, the Giants were the better offensive team. New York came into the game willing to challenge the Vikings’ porous secondary (wide receivers – 252/3,284/12), highlighted by Daniel Jones’s passing day (30-for-42 with 334 yards and one score). In addition, the Giants ran the ball well (21/126/1), thanks to a late 27-yard touchdown by Saquon Barkley. Minnesota gives up rushing touchdowns (18), and running backs have eight catches or more in four of their last five matchups.
Jones is a live quarterback option based on his salary, rushing ability, and recent success (636 combined yards with five touchdowns in two contests). In addition, all the Giants receivers project as potential value plays. Darius Slayton will be the overlooked wideout (he hasn’t scored in eight games). Richie James has seven or more catches in three of his last four starts and four scores over since Week 10. Over his previous five games, Isaiah Hodgins has 25 catches for 250 yards and four touchdowns on 33 targets (14.8 FPPG).
T.J. Hockenson (13/109/2 on 16 targets) killed New York’s first matchup with the Vikings. The Giants’ coaching staff must address this failure in this week’s game plan. Justin Jefferson finished the season on two down notes (1/15 and 4/38), but he has a four-game scoring streak at home while gaining more than 100 yards in six of his final 10 games. K.J. Osborn has been the Vikings’ second-best wide receiver over the last five weeks (30/388/3 on 38 targets).
The Giants’ defense struggles against the run (432/2,313/15 – 5.4 yards per rush), suggesting Dalvin Cook should make a top running back option. Unfortunately, he doesn’t have a rushing touchdown in four weeks, and his last game with over 100 yards rushing came in Week 10.
The first decision a daily gamer has to make is whether to use or try to beat Jefferson.
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals
Last week’s outcome of the Ravens/Bengals game isn’t a good indication of what will happen this week. Baltimore rested Tyler Huntley, J.K. Dobbins, and Mark Andrews while giving Anthony Brown his first career NFL start at quarterback. Cincinnati’s defense created four turnovers, four sacks, and one defensive score, but they still allowed 396 yards of offense.
Based on Lamar Jackson missing practice on Wednesday, Huntley is expected to start this week. Over his last three games (two at home), he passed for only 383 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions, with minimal help in the run game (24/65). Baltimore hasn’t scored more than 17 points since Week 12. The Ravens gained 100 yards rushing in their last 16 matchups.
Baltimore doesn’t have a viable wide receiver that would start on any other NFL franchise. Dobbins ran the ball over his last four starts (57/397/1), with minimal opportunity in the passing game (seven catches for 42 yards and one touchdown). Over the last two matchups, the Ravens’ tight ends delivered two productive showings (9/100 and 12/152). Andrews fits this week thanks to his sliding salary and potential chaser game. The Ravens may provide Isaiah Likely more chances after flashing against the Bengals (8/103).
Cincinnati struggled to run the ball last week (20/55/1), which should have been expected based on Baltimore’s ranking in rushing yards allowed (406/1,566/11 – 3.9 yards per rush). Surprisingly, the Bengals gained only 5.1 yards per pass attempt. Five offenses (NYJ – 309/1, MIA – 469/6, NE – 321/0, TB – 325/1, and JAC – 321/3) passed for more than 300 yards vs. the Ravens.
Since returning from his hip injury, Chase has had 40 catches for 441 yards and three touchdowns on 12 targets, with a floor of seven catches in each game. His yards per catch (12.0) are well below 2021 (18.0), leaving him one big play away from posting impact stats each week. In 2021, Ja’Marr Chase had his second-best showing (8/201/1) in his career vs. Baltimore. This week, he is an all-in play from me, but Cincinnati may throw less in the second half if the Ravens struggle to score touchdowns.
Midseason, the Bengals’ running backs had a stretch where they scored 12 touchdowns in five games, with help catching the ball (28 catches for 289 yards). This combination can’t be overlooked when evaluating Joe Mixon as an option this week. His matchup could be better, and his salary makes it challenging to fit the rest of the key pieces in your DFS lineup. However, game flow should help his chances, and he remains active in the passing game (60/441/2).
Tee Higgins came out flat against the Ravens (one catch for seven yards on seven targets). Earlier in the season, he left his matchup early against Baltimore due to a lingering ankle issue. Higgins dominated the Ravens at home in Week 16 in 2021 (12/194/2).
Joe Burrow is in the mix at quarterback, as the Bengals could dominate Baltimore via the deep pass. Unfortunately, his salary is just high enough to cost your team a player another roster slot.
Wild-Card Sunday Slate Stacks & Picks
Note: Anyone playing Jefferson and Barkley together must cheat QB, RB2, WR2 or find a low-priced flex.
Top Stacks: Buffalo and Cincinnati
