NFL DFS Week 4: Relying on a Pair of Surprising Stacks

It's time to set your DFS lineups for Week 4!  

This week's highest game total is for the Dolphins-Bills matchup in the early slot on Sunday (53.5). I like Tua with Tyreek Hill and Josh Allen with Stefon Diggs, in addition to the players I have listed below in more detail. 

I have featured players below that should return value without regard to specific salary. You will need to spend up for some and find mid-range prices for others, but all of these players are expected to outperform their salaries. 

If you want to be contrarian or simply need a very inexpensive player to complete your lineups, you will find a few of those players in Friday's DFS Bargains article. Check that out tomorrow.   

Let's dig in!

Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert, Chargers

Herbert will continue to make this list until it proves not to be profitable. This week's matchup is nice again, too. The Raiders have allowed seven passing touchdowns already this season (tied, third-most in the NFL), and no QB has more DFS points this season than Herbert. Even without Mike Williams, Herbert has plenty of weapons to return value on his salary.

Russell Wilson, Broncos

Nathan Ray Seebeck/USA TODAY Sports

Yeah, the Broncos looked terrible last week, but Russ wasn't so bad as far as DFS goes. Wilson has scored the eighth-most DFS points at the position this year, and the matchup with Chicago could be favorable. The Bears have allowed the fifth-most DFS points per game to opposing QBs, including 865 passing yards (also fifth-most) and seven passing touchdowns (tied for third-most). It's possible the Broncos will choose to run the ball more due to the soft matchup for the run game, but Denver has something to prove and Wilson will be a big part of the Broncos fighting for their first win of the season.

Justin Fields, Bears

If there is a week for Chicago to come to its senses and allow their QB to do what he does best, it's this week. The Broncos were just torched for nearly 350 yards on the ground and five rushing touchdowns. Not only that, but the Broncos have allowed at least two passing TDs to each QB they have faced this year -- including Jimmy Garappolo. If there is a time for Fields to get right, it's at home this Sunday.

Running Backs

Javonte Williams, Broncos

Williams is the leader of the Denver backfield, with three times as many attempts as Samaje Perine. Though he has been underperforming expectations, this situation is good as the Bears have allowed an average of 32 DFS points per game to opposing runners. They have been generous with 170 yards and three receiving TDs to runners, and Williams's 12 targets are tied for the second-most on the team with receiver Jerry Jeudy.

Khalil Herbert/Roschon Johnson, Bears

Are you noticing a theme here? The Bears and the Broncos have been very generous to opponents, and we will assume that continues on Sunday. No team has allowed more rushing yards (497) or more rushing touchdowns (7) than the Broncos. In addition, the Broncos have allowed three receiving touchdowns to running backs and a league-worst 204 receiving yards. I like both Herbert and Roschon Johnson this week -- and both will also make the bargains article because their salaries are on the low side. The two backs are currently in a nearly 50/50 split.

James Cook, Bills

Cook is averaging 89 rushing yards per game, and he's running a ton of routes. He should be successful this week vs. a Miami defense that has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards and more than 22 DFS points per game to opposing runners.

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams, Raiders

Candice Ward/USA Today Sports

I don't care whether it's Jimmy G or Brian Hoyer starting this weekend, Adams should be in for a big day. The Chargers have allowed the most passing yards (807) and the most DFS points per game to opposing wideouts this year. Adams has been outspoken this week, and his 39.4% target share and 49.5% air yards share are likely to translate to success. Adams is averaging 107 yards per game this year.

Keenan Allen, Chargers

Allen has been balling this season, and with no Williams this Sunday, there's no question he will continue to dominate. Allen has owned 40.7% of the team's receiving yards, averaging more than 10 targets per game. This week, he faces a Raider's team that allows a 76.6% catch rate (second-highest) and 9.09 yards per target (ninth-most) to opposing wideouts.

Adam Thielen, Panthers

Revenge game narrative! I like this play even more if Andy Dalton gets the start after Dalton peppered Thielen with targets last weekend for a massive game. Thielen finished as the WR4 last weekend in DFS lineups. This weekend's matchup is similarly juicy, with the Vikings allowing an average of 44 DFS points per game, a 76.6% catch rate, and 9.86 yards per target to opposing wide receivers (third-most in each of those categories).

Tee Higgins, Bengals

It's Higgins’s turn after Ja’Marr Chase went off last week. Both of these guys are a good starts this week and are somewhat contrarian due to Burrow's lingering calf injury -- but I am looking at Higgins for value. Higgins owns the most significant air yards share for Cincinnati (43%), and he has a 22% target share. The matchup with the Titans is excellent, as they have allowed 40 DFS points per game to opposing wideouts,

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce, Chiefs

I will not write a Taylor Swift joke.
I will not write a Taylor Swift joke.
I will not …. Oh, who am I kidding?

If you have a Blank Space at tight end, spend up for Patrick Mahomes's number one this week vs. the Jets, who have allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.

(I'll see myself out).