What do you think when someone says, “Chicago Bears?” It’s a multi-faceted question that can have many answers, all of them holding truth. One person might attach an identity to the team, saying “hard-nosed football.” The Bears lead the NFL with a whopping 30 players inducted in the NFL Hall of Fame; another fan might acknowledge one of them as the personification of the team, like the legendary Walter Payton.
For many, however, the Bears are known for having a long history of positional excellence that has withstood the test of time. Linebackers, defensive lineman, cornerbacks, running backs — excellence has graced these positions over the team’s 104-year history and many of those players are considered Bears legends.
The tradition is still alive and well in the modern age, as several recent players have brought elite skill to their respective positions. All-Pro Roquan Smith was the center piece of some truly terrifying Chicago defenses as the team’s middle linebacker, and the powerful duo of Akiem Hicks and Khalil Mack were whirlwinds of freak power and athleticism that opposing lineman couldn’t weather. As for running backs… it’s a bit of a different story.
While former Bear David Montgomery was an above-average running back whose ability to break tackles couldn’t be denied, Chicago has not had a truly great running back since 2015 — since Matt Forte was catching bullet passes from quarterback Jay Cutler. If history is truly meant to repeat itself, then where is Chicago’s next great running back? Well, one reputable football analyst claims that he’s already on the roster: Khalil Herbert.
Herbert has become a bit of a social media darling in Bears circles the last week or so. Fans are claiming that Chicago’s apparent commitment to an “running back by committee” approach on the ground can pave the way for Herbert to stand out among his teammates. Analyst Clay Harbor, however, believes an advanced metric from last season could indicate a “BIG year for Herbert.”
DONT sleep on Khalil Herbert!
He led the ENTIRE NFL in in average yards over expected. BIG year for Herbert. #DaBears #Bears #ChicagoBears pic.twitter.com/GEeOCZLxJc
— Clay Harbor (@clayharbs82) July 15, 2023
In the graph Harbor posted, Herbert ranks above other prominent running backs in a statistic called Average Rush Yards over Expected, with the Bears running back comfortably above one yard. For those who may not be aware, formulas are utilized to estimate what a ball carrier should average on any given play, based on a number of factors.
In this case, the formula Harbor posted is from the website Football Insights. So, the graph effectively demonstrates that Herbert gained one more yard per running play than the formula would have predicted Herbert to gain.
That number may seem inconsequential, but football is a game of inches. That one yard more Herbert gains on average could be the difference between getting stuffed at the goal line or scoring a touchdown.
Herbert’s breakout year could be imminent, if Harbor and the rest of the Bears’ faithful is to be believed. Which means Herbert may be taking his first steps into becoming Chicago’s next great running back.
