The last time the Philadelphia Eagles played the San Francisco 49ers, it was Week 2 of the 2021 season, and many things were different. The 49ers won, 17-11. Jimmy Garoppolo was San Francisco’s quarterback. Jalen Hurts was Philadelphia’s quarterback, but nobody was really sure about that yet. Hurts completed 12 of 23 passes for 190 yards and no touchdowns, and he ran the ball 10 times for 82 yards and a touchdown, which perfectly reflected Hurts’ overall skill set at the time. Quez Watkins was Philly’s top receiver (two catches for 117 yards), and Hurts was by far Philly’s leading rusher.
As for the 49ers, Garoppolo completed 22 of 30 passes for 189 yards and a touchdown, which is the most Jimmy Garoppolo game you can imagine. Jamycal Hasty was San Francisco’s most explosive runner, and Deebo Samuel was San Francisco’s most productive receiver… so, there’s one thing you might have actually expected.
Now, the Eagles have an MVP candidate in Hurts, who has grown exponentially as both a runner and a passer. They have A.J. Brown and a fully developed DeVonta Smith at receiver. Philly’s run game is an entirely different animal, and their defense has taken great steps forward in the 2022 season.
San Francisco’s defense is now the NFL’s best, and their offense, with the additions of rookie quarterback Brock Purdy and running back Christian McCaffrey, ranks second in DVOA since Week 10, behind only the Chiefs.
Unlike the AFC Championship game, where the Chiefs and Bengals have all kinds of recent intel to go on (it’ll be their third matchup since last season’s AFC Championship game), this Eagles-49ers tilt should look very different than what we last saw nearly two years ago.
If the 49ers are to get past the Eagles and advance to their second Super Bowl in the last four years, here are three keys to unlocking that door.
(All advanced metrics courtesy of Football Outsiders, Sports Info Solutions, and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise indicated).
Spy Jalen Hurts as much as you can.
The 49ers were unable to keep Hurts from winning as a runner in that Week 2 matchup last season. Not only did Hurts gain 82 yards and score a touchdown on just 10 carries; he also had several explosive runs that will have defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans hitting the tape hard this week to try and figure out how to deal with it.
Here, with 2:39 left in the first quarter, the Eagles had third-and-4 from their own 23-yard line. The 49ers played aggressive Cover-1, manning up Philly’s receivers across the formation. Hurts had a read progression here that went “Receiver 1 open/if Receiver 1 is not open, hit the jets.” That worked in his favor for a 12-yard gain. The 49ers did a nice job of getting linebacker Fred Warner to the pocket on a stunt, but that also left the outside wide open for Hurts to take off.
On this 13-yard Hurts scramble with 7:54 left in the third quarter, the 49ers did another nice job of gumming up Hurts’ reads — this time in Cover-4 — out of a four-man rush. But once again, they left the outside wide open, and who could have blamed Hurts for taking the easy yards?
When the 49ers spied a defender right on Hurts as a runner, things went more smoothly for them. On this one-yard run with 5:03 left in the first half from the San Francisco four-yard line, linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair was going wherever Hurts was going, no matter where he went.
It’s a good thing that Al-Shaair and safety Jimmie Ward were on Hurts from the snap, because running back Miles Sanders absolutely demolished cornerback Deommodore Lenoir with a killer block that pushed Lenoir into the end zone.
Miles Sanders tells Deommodore Lenoir, "You ain't gotta go home, but you gotta get on up outta here." pic.twitter.com/vHjmvJpXl4
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) January 26, 2023
Ordinarily, the argument against spying a quarterback on a regular basis is that you’re taking away a defender in coverage, but the extent to which Philly’s offense goes around Hurts makes that argument moot.
Put the Eagles in a vise with 21 personnel.
For the most past, 21 personnel — two running backs, one tight end, and two receivers — is a running personnel package. But there are teams that love to spam defenses in the passing game out of it, and the 49ers are definitely one of them. In the 2022 season, only the Dolphins (165) had more dropbacks out of 21 personnel than the 49ers’ 160, and given that Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel goes way back with Kyle Shanahan as an assistant, you know where that came from in Miami’s case.
The 49ers have completed 109 of 160 passes in 21 for 1,442 yards, 586 air yards, a league-high six touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 103.7. Brock Purdy has completed 60 of 85 passes out of 21 for 803 yards, 329 air yards, four touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 111.1. Not bad for a last-overall-pick rookie who’s played half the season.
The Eagles have not seen a lot of passing plays out of 21 (25 dropbacks, which is fourth-lowest in the league), but they did see a couple against the Giants in their divisional-round win, and both were explosive completions.
Interesting wrinkle here — the Giants didn't do much right in their divisional loss to the Eagles, but they did get two explosive pass plays in the first quarter out of 21 personnel.
The 49ers LOVE to test defenses with 21 in the pass game, so this will be fun to watch. pic.twitter.com/rfkuXVJGZt
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) January 26, 2023
The Giants put Saquon Barkley and Matt Breida in the backfield on both plays. The Eagles countered in both cases with five-man fronts and played zone behind them (Cover-3 and Cover-4).
That the Giants could get 16- and 19-yard passing plays out of that package does not bode well for an Eagles defense that will have to graduate from 31 Flavors to the ice cream factory when they face the 49ers. Kyle Shanahan has Christian McCaffrey and Kyle Juszczyk as his primary running back instigators in this case, and what makes the 49ers so tough to defend here is that both McCaffrey and Juszczyk can line up anywhere in the formation and win. Add tight end George Kittle, and receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk to that package, and… well… good luck.
On this 31-yard completion to Kittle against the Cowboys in the divisional round, the 49ers lined Juszczyk out wide to the left, Aiyuk in the left slot, Samuel tight to the formation on the left side after a motion that gave away Dallas’ zone coverage, Kittle tight to the right side of the formation, and McCaffrey in the backfield. The result was what it so often is when the 49ers do this — an explosive passing play for Purdy.
As we have seen, the Eagles would like to stay in base five-man fronts when they think the run is coming. The problem with doing that against the 49ers is that you never know what’s coming. They are the polar opposite of the Eagles’ offense, which runs so many things out of 11 personnel. Pre-snap, the Eagles are pretty static. Post-snap is where they get their chaos theory going. The 49ers want your defense guessing and hesitating all the time.
Keep things tight to the boundary.
The Eagles’ most explosive play in that game last season was obviously this 91 yard Quez Watkins catch from Hurts — which wasn’t even a touchdown! The 49ers were in Cover-1, and the aforementioned Mr. Lenoir was on an island with Watkins, who just sped by as Lenoir stumbled. Lenoir and Jaquiski Tartt, who was the deep safety here, caught up eventually… but 91 yards later, which is not ideal for your defense.
Fast-forward to now, and while the 49ers have stars all over their defense, their cornerbacks are still somewhat vulnerable when put on islands like this. I swear, I’m not trying to pick on Deommodore Lenoir in this article; his name just keeps coming up. The Eagles have at least two receivers in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith who can flat-out burn cornerbacks on the boundary, and Lenoir gave up a 46-yard completion from Dak Prescott to CeeDee Lamb in the divisional round when Lamb just zoomed right by him.
To keep things equal, let’s talk about cornerback Charvarius Ward, and his issues against Seattle’s D.K. Metcalf (a very A.J. Brown-type receiver) in the wild-card round. Metcalf’s size/speed combination made this an impossible 50-yard journey for Ward.
The 49ers might want to split their safeties to make up for these possible issues, though that would ostensibly give the Eagles more openings for their estimable run game. Whatever they do to correct this, something must be done.
“I think there has to be a good balance with the shot plays and the running,” DeMeco Ryans said this week, when asked how he’ll defend it all. “When you’re responsible for those shot plays, mainly our corners and safeties on the outside. We know the challenge that we have this week when guys have to go up and be able to make a play. They get opportunities when the ball is up, it’s an opportunity for us to go up and make the play. That’s how I view it and when it comes to him scrambling around, that’s all 11. It starts with our D-line being where they’re supposed to be and guys who are responsible to go get the quarterback. We just have to do our job. No, we can’t make a bigger deal out of it than it is. Everybody has to do their job, be where they’re supposed to be, and we play defense with all 11 as a group swarming. That’s what’s going to help us, defend the quarterback running.”
Easier said than done, but Ryans has a handle on the problem.
