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The Conversation
The Conversation
Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

Newspoll and Resolve give Labor big leads as parliament resumes after the election

With federal parliament to sit for the first time since the election on Tuesday, Newspoll gives Labor a 57–43 lead and Resolve a 56–44 lead. In Tasmania, Labor is a chance to gain a seat despite a 3% slide in their statewide vote.

A national Newspoll gave Labor a 57–43 lead (55.2–44.8 to Labor at the May federal election). Fieldwork dates and the sample size were not reported, but it’s likely to have been taken July 14–18 from a sample of about 1,200.

Primary votes were 36% Labor, 29% Coalition, 12% Greens, 8% One Nation and 15% for all Others. This is the lowest Coalition primary vote in Newspoll history that goes back to 1985, and about three points below the Coalition’s result at the election.

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