Amid the high-profile election campaign over the past month or more, the bigger story emerging after four phases of voting in Uttar Pradesh is that of the absent voter. Will the “silent no-show” by voters — that is, by not turning up to vote — actually change the outcome?
In the first two phases (Feb. 10 and 14), covering mostly western Uttar Pradesh, voter turnout declined from 64.6% and 65.5% respectively in 2017 to 62.5% and 64.7% this time. In the third and fourth phases, which covered the Etawah-Mainpuri potato-growing belt, the central districts, including the State capital of Lucknow and a major part of the Bundelkhand region, the turnout remained largely unchanged from last time — 62.3% and 62.6% respectively.
On the whole, voter turnout has been slightly short of the level reached in 2017 when the BJP scored a landslide victory by winning a record 312 of the 403 Assembly seats. Could the drop of one-to-two percentage points actually impact the Uttar Pradesh outcome?
There could be several reasons for a voter to not vote. For example, not finding oneself on the voter list, being easily dissuaded by the distance of the polling booth, and even sometimes preferring to take an extended vacation rather than staying on to vote.
But when a contest turns intensely bipolar as is currently the case in Uttar Pradesh, choosing not to vote can equally be a strong political statement. Such a reasoning could hold true for some of the committed supporters of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), who seem to be visibly sour and absent from the contest. The Congress voters, on the other hand, under the charged leadership of party general secretary Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, appear highly motivated. One witnesses similarly high levels of enthusiasm amongst those intending to vote for the Samajwadi Party (SP).
The mood of BJP voters, however, is increasingly difficult to read amid questions on their possible decisions. A closer look at constituency-wise disaggregated data further reflects this uncertainty. In several constituencies, in fact, it seems likely that the absent voter might mostly be hurting the BJP’s prospects, notably in those constituencies where the party had scrapped through in 2017 with narrow margins.
Significant drop
As many as 139 of the 231 seats polled so far have reported a sharply lower voter turnout. In Sitapur and Sevata, for example, there is a drop of up to 9% point from the levels recorded in 2017. Six seats saw no change, while 86 seats reported a higher turnout, with Karhal reporting the biggest bump of 7%. Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s challenger, Akhilesh Yadav of the Samajwadi Party is contesting from Karhal.
Out of the 139 seats with lower voter turnout, the drop was more than 3%, or 10,000 votes, in 28 seats. The BJP won 24 of these 28 seats the last time and several of them with a small margin. For example, it won Maholi in Sitapur district by just 3,700 votes. Here, voter turnout has fallen by more than 16,000 votes, from 68.7% in 2017 to 63.5% in 2022.
The town of Sitapur, neighbouring the State capital, has seen the sharpest fall — from 61.8% to 52.6% or a drop of more than 35,000 votes. The BJP had won this seat with a margin of 24,900 votes the last time. In all, Sitapur district has nine Assembly constituencies, where voter turnout averaged 62.7% compared with 68.5% in the last election. The BJP had won seven of these seats in 2017.
One could also argue that a lower voter turnout may not necessarily impact the BJP in seats it had previously won with large margins, such as Agra South, Sri Nagar or Unnao, even though the decline in voter turnout in 2022 ranged between 4 to 6 percentage points.
The fall in turnout is not specific to a particular region. A case in point is Sardhana in western Uttar Pradesh which was won in 2017 by the BJP and Hindutva heavyweight Sangeet Som with a margin of 21,000 votes. Ahead of polling, speculation was rife that Mr. Som could lose his seat as he had alienated many of the party’s traditional voters, especially amongst the Saini community — a backward caste. Sardhana has reported a 4.5% point drop in voter turnout — from 71.8% in 2017 to 67.3% in this election.
Reflecting the anxieties of a lower turnout, a BJP leader in Sitapur admitted that that mobilising their own voters was increasingly becoming a challenge.
Understanding the outcome on March 10 thus might lie less in who have voted than in those who have chosen not to exercise their choice. The BJP voter, who is perhaps the most ideologically committed among the very large electorate in Uttar Pradesh, might indeed be sending his or her leadership a strong message in this very intense and keenly fought election.
(The author is an independent journalist and commentator on current affairs)
(Voter turnout data for 2022 are provisional, subject to change when vote is finally counted)
