Newcastle United have gone from relegation favourites to European hopefuls in the course of a single year. The takeover which was welcomed by thousands of jubilant fans on the steps of St James' Park has already made its mark.
The 'richest club in the world' label which has been applied to the Magpies ever since does not tell the whole truth however. Eddie Howe has been backed with a transfer spend in excess of £200 million in just two windows, yet the decadent arrival of superstars some predicted has not materialised.
Financial Fair Play and UEFA's own regulations prevent Newcastle from taking the carefree approach which catapulted Chelsea and Manchester City to the summit. Mike Ashley's turbulent tenure gave the new owners an immediate opportunity to invest, but the chronic lack of investment left a legacy problem which will take years to address.
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Figures from the latest set of club accounts reveal Newcastle collected just £20.8m from commercial income in 2021. In contrast, reigning Premier League champions Manchester City banked £271.7m for the same period.
It is a £250m deficit which gives Pep Guardiola's side a sizeable headstart every season when it comes to recruitment, on top of the significant investment made since Sheikh Mansour's takeover in 2008. City lead the way when it comes to commercial income, and Newcastle trail every member of the 'Big Six' they hope to disrupt by at least £120m.
As it stands, the Magpies also trail Aston Villa, Brighton, Everton, Leeds, Leicester City, West Ham, and Wolves in the same category. It is not just a gap to bridge - it is a chasm.
Reflecting on the 'anomaly' facing Newcastle's owners, football finance expert Kieran Maguire told ChronicleLive: "Newcastle United should not be seventh bottom of the Premier League in terms of commercial income. That is ludicrous and is testament to the lack of strategy from the previous ownership group.
"It's an indication of the magnitude of the challenge. These figures are from 2021, and the Newcastle brand had become tainted. There were effective boycotts of product lines from the fanbase, and commercial sponsors and partners were wary of tying themselves to Newcastle United because they feared they would be seen as de-facto supporters of Mike Ashley."
The shirt-sleeve sponsorship agreement with Noon announced this summer is expected to be the first of a wave of commercial deals. The Magpies have reportedly received in the region of £7m for the arrangement, a figure which Maguire believes would place them as 'best of the rest' among equivalent deals in the top-flight.
Soaring demand for tickets has led to inevitable questions over the future of St James' Park and ways to monetise this increased fervour. Yet this renewed appetite from the Toon Army both home and away will not tackle this commercial deficit alone.
Maguire explained: "It is something which will take a long period of time, because Newcastle is a very big fish in a Newcastle pond. But, while fans overseas are aware and there are clearly many expat Geordies who are as fervent as local fans, at present you're not picking up the football tourist in Indonesia, in Thailand, in the USA and so on.
"I think there's clearly a potential market in the Middle East with Saudi Arabia, and that can be monetised. We're starting to see a smattering of Manchester City fans abroad, and they've won four Premier League titles out of five and are still in a catch-up position as far as those other 'Big Six' clubs are concerned.
"They've also qualified for the Champions League for the last decade or so. I think that's what Newcastle fans need to be aware of, they're going to have to be patient in terms of sitting at that top table."
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Newcastle are expected to seek a more lucrative deal to replace Fun88 as the shirt sponsor from the beginning of next season. Noon have already replaced Kayak on the sleeves, and apart from a stadium change which could bring back painful memories of the Sports Direct Arena, what other options could the new owners consider?
Maguire said: "What they will be able to do is take the approach we've seen from other clubs, who have had separate deals for first-team shirts and training equipment. They could get a sponsorship deal for the training facilities.
"They could start to negotiate better prices for pre-season tours, there's nothing to stop them going to the Middle East. If that sells out, there could be prize money and payouts from promoters.
"It's about thinking outside of the box. There are innovative people who can say have we considered X or Y?
"From a fans' perspective, I hope they don't go down the NFT route. While it could be very lucrative, it is a tainted issue but I'm sure they will explore all eventualities."
Any solutions to the commercial deficit will in turn allow Newcastle to become more aggressive and competitive in the transfer market. United have not been afraid to spend big, breaking their transfer record for Alexander Isak, and luring Sven Botman and Bruno Guimaraes fro Ligue 1.
However, the margin for error is small, especially when the ambition is to disrupt the entrenched 'Big Six'. Everton and more recently Leicester serve as warnings on how even a few missteps can prove debilitating.
The owners likely spent more than initially intended in January to help pull Newcastle clear of another costly relegation. Howe was again backed handsomely in the summer, and the Magpies still have plenty of room to continue investing when it comes to FFP at this stage.
Maguire said: "Going forward, every extra pound you make from commercial income is likely to allow you to spend 70-80% of that on player costs. If we assume an average of a four-year contract, that's a £50m amortisation cost so far.
"Newcastle were in a strong FFP situation, and this is the paradox of Mike Ashley. He ran Newcastle as a sustainable business but also as a joyless football club.
"That meant the new owners did inherit a fair degree of flexibility and leeway, they still have some of that available. They have recruited a lot of players which means they perhaps need to balance things with the squad size, they have to look at exit routes as well as incomings.
"If they sell a couple of decent players, all of those profits are booked immediately whereas if you buy a player, the costs are spread over a long period of time. That's the reason why Chelsea are able to spend and spend, they are absolutely brilliant at doing sales for players who you have never heard of."
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