New Zealand scientists find tremor link that could predict volcanic eruptions

Strong tremors have become more frequent near Mount Ruapehu, an active volcano on New Zealand’s North Island. Photograph: Bloomberg/Getty Images

Researchers in New Zealand are developing a new warning system that tracks shaking within volcanoes and could one day provide two to four days’ notice of whether an eruption is more likely.

After the deadly Whakaari eruption in 2019, researchers at the University of Canterbury set out to determine whether patterns in seismic frequency (the shakes felt in the volcano) could help forecast eruptions and prevent the loss of life.

Natural Resources Engineering postdoctoral fellow Dr Alberto Ardid studied recordings from GeoNet seismometers – an instrument that measures ground noises and shaking – prior to 18 eruptions across six active volcanoes around the world, including three in New Zealand; Ruapehu, Tongariro, and Whakaari.