Three months ahead of New Zealand’s election, a new poll suggests an incredibly tight contest between the two major parties, and lukewarm support for both, with the latest figures granting the centre-right bloc a wafer-thin victory.
National, the main opposition party, and its supporters took 61 seats in this week’s 1News Verian poll, with the centre-left bloc – led by Labour, the current ruling party – on 59. A party or coalition of parties must win at least 60 of parliament’s 120 seats to form a government.
The last poll, in May, had National’s bloc on 62 and Labour’s on 58. But this week, both major parties recorded a two-point slump in support; Labour polled at 33% and National at 35%.
The results showed voters still uncertain about the leaders and policies of the two major parties, analysts said, and reflected a turbulent year in New Zealand politics after Jacinda Ardern, then the Labour prime minister, abruptly quit her post in January. “This is historically weak for both major parties,” said Ben Thomas, a former National party staffer and political consultant, of the latest figures.
In the poll of 1,000 eligible voters, support flowed to minor parties on the left and right. ACT, a libertarian group that would form a government with National, rose one point to 12%, while among Labour’s support parties, the left-leaning Green Party jumped three points to 10% and Te Pāti Māori recorded a one point bump to 3%.
“I think voters have finally figured out that they’re not beholden to these two major parties, that they have options,” said Lamia Imam, a political commentator and former Labour party staffer. “These are real options, not fake ones, and they’ve had real power in previous governments.”
Both Labour and National were forced to reappraise their electoral strategies after Ardern’s departure, with Chris Hipkins, her successor, scrapping politically controversial proposals of the former leader’s that had proved targets for National and seen Labour falter in the polls. His pledge of sticking to “bread and butter” policies appeared to have initially arrested Labour’s decline in the polls, analysts said, but had brought the two parties’ policy platforms closer together.
“What Labour and National are offering is sort of tinkering with the problems but they’re not really offering substantive solutions,” said Imam. She cited Hipkins’ remarks this month that he would rule out introducing a wealth tax or capital gains tax if re-elected; the same 1News Verian poll recorded 51% support for a capital gains tax on rental properties, with 37% of voters opposed to it.
Hipkins’ reforms had left “both parties hugging the centre, almost overlapping in policy,” Thomas said.
As he entered a caucus meeting on Tuesday, Hipkins told reporters that Labour “as a team” needed to “take responsibility for the polling that we’re getting at the moment”, according to the New Zealand Herald.
Christopher Luxon, the leader of National, said the polls were a sign to him of “good progress”, the Herald reported. Luxon entered Parliament in 2020 and has led the party since November 2021.
In the poll’s preferred prime minister ratings, Luxon was up two points from May to 20%, while the prime minister, Hipkins, was down one point to 24%. It would be “a very tight election”, Hipkins told reporters on Tuesday.
The last time New Zealand went to the polls, in 2020, Labour won a commanding majority with 50% of the vote – almost unprecedented in New Zealand politics – after the government’s publicly popular initial response to Covid-19. National, which cycled through three different leaders during the election year, languished at 25%.
This year’s election is scheduled for 14 October.
