Hopes are growing Turkey and Armenia could reopen their borders after nearly thirty years after Turkish Armenian envoys described last month's diplomatic talks as "constructive and positive,"
Ankara cut diplomatic relations and seized its border with Armenia after Armenian forces seized Azeri territory in fighting over Nagorno Karabakh, an enclave internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan but with a majority Armenian population. Ankara counts Baku among its closest allies.
'No clear barrier to rapprochement'
In 2020, Azeri forces with Turkish support recaptured territory they'd lost. Sinan Ulgen of the Istanbul-based Edam research institute says victory opened the door to the Turkish Armenian rapprochement.
"Today, therefore, there is no clear barrier to this rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia," said Ulgen, "Because as we recall, it was on account of the occupation of these territories back in the early 1990s, that Turkey had decided to close the border."
"So now that justification has disappeared, and on top of that, there are also positive messaging from Baku about the Turkey Armenia rapprochement," added Ulgen.
The prospect of renewed trade with Armenia is welcomed by Turkish traders living near the two countries' borders.
"Look at the European countries; they do business with each other," said cheese seller Huseyin Kanik.
"It is a country (Armenia) that is so close to us. From here, in an hour, you are in Armenia and the same if they come here. One hour is all that separates us. So people could go back and forth, do business, go in the morning and come back in the evening."
Armenian workers
Reopening the border would help the thousands of Armenians working in Turkey. Armenians working illegally can be found praying at a local church in Istanbul. Among those attending who did not want to be identified, say the restoration of diplomatic relations could help with their status and mean an end to the arduous road journey home via neighboring Georgia.
Remittances from Armenian workers are an essential source of income for their country's economy, which has been hit hard by being denied direct access to Turkey's large market and important transit routes to the broader region.
Preparations are already underway for the reopening of the border.
"The reopening of the border will consist of the opening or establishment of two critical border cross points," Said Richard Giragosian, Director of the Yerevan based Regional Studies Center.
"One for trucks and trade and the other for tourism. And in both areas, there is tremendous potential because the border has been closed for so long there is pent-up demand," added Giragosian, "At the same time, we also see a level investment in preparation of the reopening."
Historical Obstacles
History could be an obstacle to rapprochement efforts. Along with much of the world, Armenia accuses Turkey's then Ottoman rulers of committing genocide against its Armenian minority during World War One. Ankara denies the genocide charge insisting the deaths occurred during a civil war. But Yerevan may not want the past to dictate the rapprochement agenda.
"It's a policy of no preconditions, meaning that normalization is not reconciliation," claimed Giragosian. "This is not about the Armenian genocide; this is simply the basic minimum of neighbors, establishing diplomatic relations, and having open borders. Reconciliation will come later, with normalization as an important foundation," he added.
A normalisation of relations would likely help ease Ankara's strained ties with Washington and the European Union, which have welcomed the diplomatic efforts.
Both have strongly criticized Turkey's Armenia policy, forcing Yerevan to depend on its Russian and Iranian neighbors. But some analysts the reopening of the Turkish Armenian border could ease that dependency.
"That would have a huge impact in the region regarding easing cooperation and particularly communication and transportation," claimed Zaur Gasimov, an expert on the Caucasus at Bonn University.
"The boost of cooperation between these two countries would diminish the role of Iran in the region entirely, and Tehran opposes that, and the same goes for Russia," he added. "Because it makes the large profile presence of Russian military region that puts it in a completely new light, that questions its number and its role."
Direct flights
The announcement of new direct flights between the two countries starting in February is the first positive step forward.
But earlier this month, three soldiers were killed in border clashes between Armenian and Azeri forces. Those fatalities underscore what some observers say is the fragility of the rapprochement process.
"Circumstances can change," warns analyst Ulgen. "if there is a flare-up in Nagorno Karabakh, for instance, or at the border, things may be different. That's why I think it's important things need to move at a rather fast pace."
