Welsh independence is easily affordable, with the gap between what the nation raises in taxes and its spending commitments much smaller than previously thought, according to independent research commissioned by Plaid Cymru.
The so-called “fiscal gap” has previously been estimated at £13.5bn, using estimates from the UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS). But Professor John Doyle of Dublin City University, who has written a report for Plaid Cymru, claims the ONS-based calculation makes false assumptions and fails to take into account important factors that would reduce the gap to around £2.6bn.
The findings of the report, which you can find here, were hailed as a “game changer” by Plaid leader Adam Price. Prof Doyle says his calculations are based on the 2019 estimate of total Welsh economic output at £77.5bn and would be equivalent to just under 3.4% of GDP. This compares with an average fiscal deficit across all OECD countries of 3.2% in 2019.
