If you’ve been waiting on the sidelines to buy a house, the time to strike is near.
Based on historical trends and current housing metrics, Realtor.com predicts that the number of active home listings in the U.S. could surge by 17% in early October compared to January, expanding inventory and softening home prices nationally.
So according to Realtor.com analysis, the first week of October is the best time to buy in 2023.
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Home shoppers could see even better conditions in local markets like Dallas, Austin, and Seattle, where the number of available home listings is projected to be 22% to 36% higher than average.
Buyers of a median-priced home ($445,000) could spend over $15,000 less during the week of October 1-7 than if they had purchased a home during the summer peak, when competition is historically fiercest.
Market conditions are generally most favorable to homebuyers in the fall, Realtor.com chief economist Danielle Hale and research analyst Hannah Jones reported. “Inventory tends to be high, prices are below peak levels, demand is waning, and pace of the market slows to a more manageable speed,” they wrote.
In short, there are typically more homes to choose from and relatively fewer people vying for them.
You can expect similar conditions this fall, although steep mortgage rates and stubbornly high home prices trigged by the pandemic recovery could make this season more challenging for would-be buyers. Local factors are at play, too.
In about a dozen of the 50 largest U.S. metro areas, the best time to buy a home is October 1-7, according to the Realtor.com analysis. The following week, October 8-14, is the ideal time to buy in another nine metros, including Atlanta and Nashville.
Metros where the best time to buy a house is October 1-7, 2023:
- Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
- Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
- Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
- Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
- Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
- Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
- Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
- Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
- San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
- St. Louis, MO-IL
- Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
- Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
- San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA
Metros where the best time to buy is October 8-14, 2023:
- Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
- San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
- Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
- Pittsburgh, PA
- Columbus, OH
- Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV
- Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin, TN
- Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
- New Orleans-Metairie, LA
Should I buy a house now or wait?
Consider your personal motivations for buying, and your financial priorities. Mortgage rates are poised to remain elevated through the end of the year, which means a higher monthly payment if you buy now.
However, if mortgage rates come down in 2024, homeowners who have been hanging onto their low rates could finally decide to sell. The effect could be more inventory, but also more competition for new listings.
If affordability is less of a concern than the volume of listings available, it’s probably a good idea to shop for a home this fall. According to Realtor.com, the October “early buyers” have the most new listings to choose from before inventory tightens again around the holidays.
