WASHINGTON — A recent spate of polls suggests Republican Sen. Marco Rubio might suddenly have a tougher-than-expected reelection fight on his hands.
But some skepticism of the new numbers is warranted — even according to Democrats in the state.
In the last two weeks, three polls have shown putative Democratic Senate nominee Val Demings either tied or leading Rubio in Florida. The most recent, a survey from the University of North Florida released Tuesday, found Demings receiving 48% support from registered voters, more than the 44% who said they backed the GOP incumbent. Seven percent of respondents said they would vote for someone else.
That poll comes days after two surveys released last week found the race tied: One, from a pair of Florida progressive groups, found the two candidates each receiving 45% of the vote. Another poll released last week, this one from the Democratic group EMILY’s List, showed Demings and Rubio each receiving 46% support.
EMILY’s List, which supports female Democratic candidates who back abortion rights, has endorsed Demings.
Collectively, the data would seem to belie the widespread view both in Washington and Florida that Rubio is on track to easily win reelection, thanks to the state’s increasing rightward political tilt and the public’s negative view of President Joe Biden. And it would fit a broader national pattern of Democratic candidates for Senate — in states ranging from Pennsylvania to Georgia — showing better-than-expected support less than three months before November’s election.
Asked about the recent polling, officials with Rubio’s campaign said that even as they remained confident in victory, they believed the race would still be competitive.
“This is Florida, and we’ve always said it would be a tight race,” said Elizabeth Gregory, spokeswoman for Rubio’s campaign. “This is a choice between Marco’s proven record of results, and Val Demings who votes 100% of the time for (House Speaker Nancy) Pelosi’s failed agenda. Given that choice, we are more than confident that we will win.”
The recent polls do show a much tighter race than surveys taken earlier this year. The University of North Florida survey, for instance, found in February that Rubio was leading Demings by 12 percentage points, 46% to 34%.
It’s a sign that Demings, a congresswoman from Orlando, has impressed the public since launching her bid for the Senate, officials with her campaign say.
“The more Florida voters know about Chief Demings, the more they like her,” said Christian Slater, a Demings campaign spokesman. “That’s why we are laser-focused on aggressively introducing her to every corner of the state and bringing our message to every community. And our grassroots fundraising makes it possible. While Marco Rubio desperately begs for donations on Fox News, Chief Demings is building a campaign fueled by supporters who are fired up and ready to defeat a career politician who doesn’t show up for work.”
Political operatives from both parties agree that Demings’ growing support could be a result of her campaign’s TV and digital ad campaign, which they say has been larger than Rubio’s thus far. Demings is one of the top fundraisers in the country this election cycle, having raised more than $47 million through Aug. 3, according to documents filed with the Federal Election Commission.
Many of those same political operatives, however, retain some skepticism that Rubio’s race is as tight as the recent polls make it seem.
Two of the surveys, for instance, come from Democratic or political organizations. And even nonpartisan polls, such as the one from the University of North Florida, have a spotty track record in recent elections, showing greater support for Democratic candidates in statewide races than what they would ultimately receive.
The RealClearPolitics polling average of the 2020 presidential race in Florida showed Biden up by almost one percentage point, even though former President Donald Trump would go on to win the state by over three percentage points.
Even some Democrats in the state called Tuesday’s poll an anomaly, although they were focused on its results for a different contest. The UNF survey showed Charlie Crist, broadly perceived as the favorite in next week’s gubernatorial primary, trailing Democratic foe Nikki Fried by four percentage points, 43% to 47%.
“The UNF poll is clearly an outlier,” an official with the Crist campaign told reporters.
Well-funded outside groups have generally stayed away from the Florida Senate race thus far, though the National Republican Senatorial Committee — the campaign arm of Senate Republicans — did help fund an ad for Rubio.
Those groups, including super PACs and nonprofit groups aligned with Republican and Democratic senators, have invested more money in states like Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Nevada and North Carolina, the seven states most party strategists consider the top battleground for this year’s midterm election.
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