HARRISBURG, Pa. — Support for abortion access among Pennsylvania voters reached an all-time high this month, according to a Franklin and Marshall College poll released Thursday.
Thursday's poll was the first one that Franklin & Marshall College conducted since the U.S. Supreme Court in June overturned a federal constitutional right to an abortion. According to the poll conducted last week, 37% of registered voters believe abortion should be legal under any circumstances and 52% believe it should be legal under certain circumstances.
All together, nine in 10 Pennsylvania voters support abortion access in some form.
Statewide Democratic candidates have advantages over the Republicans, according to Thursday's poll. Democratic gubernatorial nominee Josh Shapiro leads the GOP nominee Sen. Doug Mastriano, 44% to 33%, pollsters found. In the U.S. Senate race, Democrat John Fetterman leads Republican Mehmet Oz, 43% to 30%.
What's more: Mastriano and Oz have unfavorable ratings that outpace the number of people who view them favorably, with 57% of voters viewing Oz unfavorably and 49% who view Mastriano unfavorably. In other words, more Pennsylvania voters have unfavorable feelings toward the two top GOP candidates in the state than there are people who like them. Fetterman's unfavorable rating is 36%, and Shapiro is viewed unfavorably by 32% of voters.
The Franklin & Marshall College poll has surveyed voters about their beliefs about abortion throughout the last 13 years. In June 2009 — the first time the college polled voters about abortion — only 18% of voters supported abortion under any circumstances, and 58% of voters supported it under certain circumstances.
Democrats across the country hoped that the Dobbs decision would motivate voters to go to the polls in November. This appears to be the case, as Democrats secured some big legislative wins in recent primary elections.
However, President Joe Biden's favorability ratings are some of the lowest they've been, with only 8% of voters who think he's doing an "excellent" job, and 26% who think he's doing a "good" job, according to the poll. Republicans have an advantage on the generic ballot for its congressional races, and confidence in the state's economy remains low — all things that should give Republicans a boost in November.
"The races that Republicans are not winning are the Senate and gubernatorial races," said Berwood Yost, the director of the poll. The current political environment should have set up Republicans for a successful November election, Yost said.
Franklin & Marshall College's Center for Opinion Research surveyed registered Pennsylvania voters Aug. 15 through 21. They polled 522 registered voters, including 234 Democrats, 214 Republicans and 74 independents. This is a statistically representative sample and polled voters based on the statewide turnout, where Democrats still hold a slight edge over Republicans in its total registered voters.
The poll has a sample error of 5.3%. Registered voters were polled by phone or filled out an online phone, depending on the participant's preference.
Should Fetterman and Shapiro have any reason to worry?
Yost said their poll findings give voters a "good sense" of the state of the races pre-Labor Day — when more voters begin to pay attention — which signals Shapiro and Fetterman's campaigns are still far from a win on Election Day.
"The electoral environment is not clear at the moment," Yost added.
A majority of Pennsylvania voters — nearly 60% — said they do not believe the state should amend its constitution to codify that there is no abortion in the state. Lawmakers in the GOP-controlled state House took the first steps to getting such a measure on the ballot, as early as May 2023.
