The Conservative party would be decimated in Wales if an election were held now, according to a new poll. The party has 13 seats in Wales but would keep just five.
YouGov spoke to 2,086 voters in Wales between April 28 and May 27 and it projects that every Conservative seat in Wales under the pollsters' "battleground" definition would be lost, including one to Plaid Cymru in Ynys Mon.
The Conservatives won 14 in the General Election in 2019 but Delyn MP Rob Roberts now sits as an Independent. Polling shows it would lose eight seats it currently holds, leaving it with five MPs. Bridgend, Clwyd South, Wrexham, Vale of Clwyd, Vale of Glamorgan, Aberconwy and Preseli Pembrokeshire would all go to Labour. Delyn, currently an Independent, would also go to Labour.
It would leave the Conservatives with just Montgomeryshire, Clwyd West, Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire, Monmouth, and Brecon and Radnorshire. Battleground is defined as those the party gained in 2019 and those where the party won with a margin of 15 points or less.
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The poll, which also included 15,045 voters across England between 19-27 May, makes bad reading for Boris Johnson, suggesting that of the 88 ‘battleground’ constituencies which the Conservatives either won from Labour in 2019, or currently hold with a majority of less than 15 points over Labour, just three would remain in Conservative hands: Ashfield, Bassetlaw, and Dudley North.
Mr Johnson's own seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip would swing to Labour. Other high profile ‘Red Wall’ Conservative gains from 2019 that would fall back into Labour hands if an election were held tomorrow include Burnley, Blyth Valley, Leigh, and Stoke-on-Trent North.
Prominent Conservatives Iain Duncan-Smith and Steve Baker would also lose their seats. The Prime Minister remains under pressure after the publication of the Sue Gray report. If 54 MPs submit letters of no confidence in him, he would face a no confidence vote. While the exact number of letters sent to the chair of the 1922 committee of Conservative backbenchers is confidential, more MPs have gone public about having sent those letters since the report was published. You can see our coverage of the report here.
