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The National (Scotland)
The National (Scotland)
National
Adam Robertson

Sixth poll shows support for Scottish independence over the Union continues

A SIXTH poll in a row has found support for independence is outstripping that of the Union.

Following the Supreme Court ruling which said Holyrood could not legislate for indyref2 without Westminster consent, support for independence has risen as high as 56%

The latest Panelbase survey for The Sunday Times recorded an increase of three points in the Yes vote, up from 46% to 49% and a fall in the No vote, down three points from 48% to 45% since the newspaper last polled in August. 

Results showed that 6% remained undecided and, once these were excluded, support for independence was at 52% compared with 48% to remain in the UK. 

However, polling also showed that voters are still divided over the SNP’s strategy to treat the next general election as a de facto referendum. 

Polling expert Sir John Curtice said the balance of public opinion appears to have titled in favour of Yes for the first time in two years. 

The professor of politics at Strathclyde University said: “This movement is a warning to those Unionist politicians who welcomed the Supreme Court judgment that simply saying no to another referendum is unlikely to prove an adequate strategy for maintaining and bolstering support for the Union.

“At some point they will need to persuade voters of the substantive case for Scotland remaining in a post-Brexit Union and simply engage in arguments about process.

“Equally, however, while they might welcome the recent increase in support for their campaign, nationalists need to be aware that the current level of support for independence is far from sufficient to ensure they would prevail in any future test of public opinion.”

The SNP yesterday announced the date for an emergency conference to hash out the details of this particular plan. 

Former SNP deputy Westminster leader Kirsten Oswald said that the Supreme Court verdict had galvanised the Yes movement.

She said: "More and more people recognise independence not just as desirable but necessary.

“This surge in support will be terrifying the Westminster establishment. The more that Sunak and Starmer tell us we have no right to decide our future, the more people in Scotland will stand up and demand that basic democratic right.”

SNP’s Depute Leader, Keith Brown MSP also welcomed the poll, adding: “Six consecutive polls have now shown a majority for independence, representing a growing strength of feeling in Scotland the Tories would be wise not to ignore

“The chaos and calamity we see being produced by the Tories at Westminster that have seen mortgage rates rise, inflation soar and energy bills reach record levels, is making more and more people realise that the safest and best option for Scotland is a permanent escape with the full powers of independence.

“Both Labour and the Tories will wreak even more havoc on Scotland as they continue to deny the disastrous consequences of their failed Brexit obsession and persist with their Trumpian denial of Scottish democracy.

“The people of Scotland have demonstrated their support for a referendum, having delivered the largest ever majority of pro-independence MSPs in the 2021 Holyrood election.

The National: Brown hailed the sixth poll in a row showing support for independence outstrips the UnionBrown hailed the sixth poll in a row showing support for independence outstrips the Union

“With each new poll released the position of the Westminster establishment parties becomes even more untenable - Scots must and will be given the opportunity to decide their future.”

The Panelbase poll, which surveyed 1004 voters, asked which of three routes they would prefer the SNP to take. 

A total of 26% want the party to follow through on the de facto referendum plan.

Elsewhere, 17% want a snap Holyrood election within the next few months while 42% would rather independence campaigning be dropped for at least five years. 

Polls from Redfield & Wilton Strategies, Ipsos and Find Out Now have all all found those surveyed were in favour of independence.

A fourth poll from YouGov found support for independence sits at 53% compared with 47% for the Union.

A fifth survey for the Scottish Election Study’s Scottish Opinion Monitor (Scoop), puts Yes at 50.2% with “don’t knows” excluded. 

This is the first time in around a year that Scoop has found a majority for independence.

The latest Times poll marks the sixth poll showing majority support for independence since the Supreme Court ruling. 

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