A new Texas poll suggests Latino voters are moving sharply toward Democratic U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico, marking one of the biggest demographic shifts in the state's closely watched Senate race against Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton.
The latest survey from Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR), first reported by The Texas Tribune, found Talarico leading Paxton among Latino voters by 66% to 20%, a 46-point advantage. The result represents a dramatic turnaround from the firm's May survey, when Talarico led Hispanic voters by just four percentage points.
The swing comes as both campaigns have made Latino voters a central focus ahead of the November election, with Democrats hoping to reclaim support in communities that shifted toward President Donald Trump during the 2024 election.
Overall, the poll shows Talarico leading Paxton 45% to 40% statewide, his largest advantage in a publicly released general election survey since securing the Democratic nomination. The survey of 1,048 likely Texas voters was conducted July 15-17 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
The findings underscore how critical Hispanic voters have become in Texas politics.
For years, Democrats relied on overwhelming Latino support across South Texas and along the U.S.-Mexico border. But in 2024, many traditionally Democratic counties shifted toward Trump, fueled by concerns over border security, immigration, inflation and the rising cost of living. The Republican gains reshaped the political map and raised questions about whether Democrats could regain ground with one of the state's fastest-growing voting blocs.
Since launching his Senate campaign, Talarico has made rebuilding those relationships a priority. In recent weeks, the Austin state representative completed a statewide border tour, meeting with residents, law enforcement officials and business owners across South Texas while emphasizing affordability, wages and pragmatic border security proposals rather than focusing solely on immigration politics.
The new poll suggests that strategy may be resonating.
Beyond Hispanic voters, Talarico also posted strong numbers among independents and voters without college degrees, two groups that have traditionally favored Republicans in Texas. He led independents by 20 percentage points and, in a notable departure from recent elections, held a nine-point advantage among non-college voters.
Paxton, meanwhile, continued to dominate among white voters, leading Talarico 53% to 33%, while Talarico maintained a commanding advantage with Black voters.
Political observers caution that one poll does not determine the outcome of an election, particularly in Texas, where Republicans have won every statewide race since 1994. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report continues to rate the Senate contest as Lean Republican, reflecting both the state's recent voting history and the expectation that undecided Republican voters could consolidate behind Paxton as Election Day approaches.
The TPOR survey also found that 14% of likely voters remain undecided, leaving both campaigns with room to grow during the final months of the race. Among undecided voters, more leaned toward Paxton than Talarico, suggesting Republicans could still recover support as the campaign intensifies.
Still, the Latino numbers are likely to draw particular attention from both parties.
Trump's improved performance among Hispanic voters in Texas during the 2024 election helped Republicans expand their influence in historically Democratic border communities. If Talarico can maintain anything close to a 46-point advantage with Latino voters while remaining competitive among independents, Democrats believe they could mount their strongest statewide challenge in decades.
