The Conservatives have fallen 37 points behind Labour in London, according to a new analysis which suggests all their MPs in the city would be at risk of General Election defeat.
The MRP polling by Survation for campaign group 38 Degrees put Labour on 59 per cent in the capital, the Tories 22 per cent and Lib-Dems 13 per cent.
The study is based on polling more than 6,000 adults across the UK and then using demographics and other data to work out constituency-by-constituency results. The headline figure for the capital is similar to the London sample of other recent polls, of a Labour lead of 44 per cent in a YouGov survey and 35 per cent in one by Redfield and Wilton.
The Survation analysis found the Tories would lose all their 21 seats in London if the results were replicated at the next General Election expected in 2024. Labour would gain 23 and have all the seats in the capital apart from Twickenham which would remain Lib-Dem.
The polling does not take into account tactical voting, how good a local MP is, and how much a local MP has distanced themselves from their party, so has to be treated with a degree of caution. But it suggests Chief Secretary to the Treasury Chris Philp would lose in Croydon South, former minister Greg Hands would lose in Chelsea and Fulham, and even Tory strongholds of Bromley and Chislehurst would be lost to Labour.
Ex-PM Boris Johnson could also lose in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, if he stands at the next election.
Such a wipe-out would be unprecedented and it is still difficult to believe the Conservatives would be hit by a disaster on such a scale, with poll gaps often closing nearer to elections.
Some Tory MPs in London could well buck the national trend given that some of them are seen as good local MPs, especially those who have held on for many years in marginal seats. The Lib-Dems are also unlikely to end up with just one seat in London and see leader Sir Ed Davey lose Kingston and Surbiton.
But the findings do show the scale of the battle facing Liz Truss’ government after Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-Budget which sparked economic mayhem,fuelling a rise in mortgage rates. Looking ahead to next year, the study also suggested that:
- 46 per cent of people in London fear they will not be able to pay their rent or mortgage.
- 60 per cent say they may not be able to pay their energy bills.
- 61 per cent they might have to cut back on essentials like groceries.
- 31 per cent are worried they might have to use a foodbank.
- 32 per cent are concerned about being made homeless.
Matthew McGregor of 38 Degrees said: “The cost of living crisis is rapidly turning into a cost of living catastrophe.”
