A NEW poll has put the SNP ahead of Labour in Scotland on the eve of the General Election.
In a poll for The Scotsman, Savanta found that the SNP are now on 34% of the vote, while Labour are on 31% - a fall of seven points from the middle of June.
A total of 1083 Scottish adults aged 16 and over were interviewed between June 28 and July 2.
New Scotland Only Westminster poll, Savanta 28 Jun - 2 Jul (changes vs 21-25 Jun): SNP ~ 34% (nc) Lab ~ 31% (-3) Con ~ 15% (+1) LD ~ 9% (nc) RUK ~ 6% (nc) Grn ~ 3% (+1) A spicy final-but-mostly-MoE poll from Savanta, to be sure; in 2021 they had biggest SNP *under*estimate! pic.twitter.com/nzhRIxLK65
— Ballot Box Scotland (@BallotBoxScot) July 2, 2024
According to polling expert Sir John Curtice, the figures would see the SNP return 24 MPs in Scotland compared to Labour’s 22.
Political research director at Savanta Chris Hopkins said: “Our final Scottish voting intention before July 4 suggests the SNP is ahead of Labour, showing a modest improvement and potentially blunting their losses on election night.
“If our results were reflected on polling day, John Swinney’s election as SNP leader looks like it will have come just in the nick of time.
“That being said, Labour’s efficient vote, in particular around the Central Belt, will still mean it’s likely going to be a very good evening for Anas Sarwar and Keir Starmer.
“Their majority is no longer dependent on Scotland, but they’ll want to squeeze the SNP as much as they can.”
Elsewhere, polling had the Scottish Conservatives on 15% of the vote, the LibDems on 9%, Reform UK on 6% and the Greens on 3%.
According to Curtice (below), this would mean the Tories would return six MPs while the LibDems would have five.
In terms of Scottish independence, support remains split with 52% in favour of remaining in the UK and 48% backing Yes once undecideds are excluded.
Curtice said the poll suggests the SNP “have had some success in persuading some of those who would vote Yes to independence to return to the SNP fold”.
“A fortnight ago, 32% chose Labour as the best party to improve healthcare in Scotland, while only 27% nominated the SNP,” he said.
“Now the two parties are tied at 31% apiece. Similarly, Labour (30%) were previously ahead of the SNP on education (26%), whereas now the position is reversed (with Labour on 28% and the SNP on 30%).
“These figures suggest that some of the SNP’s attacks on Labour’s plans for public expenditure may have finally had some impact.”
What about Holyrood?
Voting intentions at Holyrood show the SNP on 37% for the constituency vote, ahead of Labour on 32%.
The Scottish Tories meanwhile are on 16% while the LibDems are on 9% and “other” is on 6%.
When it comes to the more proportional regional list vote, the SNP are on 29%, Labour on 28%, the Tories on 16%, the LibDems on 11% and the Greens also on 11% while “other” is on 5%.
According to Curtice’s analysis, this would give the SNP 46 MSPs, Labour 37, the Tories 21, the LibDems 13 and the Greens 12.
