LABOUR are leading the SNP in Westminster voting intention, according to a new poll, but the tables are turned for a Holyrood election.
The new Scottish Opinion Monitor (Scoop) survey, published by the Scottish Election Study, also suggested that No would win an independence referendum by 55% to 45%, with Don’t Knows removed.
The poll further found that 38% of voters would back Labour, while 32% would back the SNP, once Don’t Knows and Will Not Votes were removed.
However, a second poll published hours later put the two parties neck and neck.
In the Scoop poll, the Tories were projected to win 16% of the vote, the LibDems 5%, the Greens 4%, and other parties 4%.
At Holyrood however, the SNP lead Labour in the constituency vote. A total of 34% of voters said they would back Humza Yousaf’s party, against 31% who would back Keir Starmer’s, with Don’t Knows removed.
Elsewhere in the Holyrood constituency vote, the Tories would win 14%, the LibDems 8%, and the Greens 7%, according to the Scoop survey. Other parties would win 4% of the vote.
And on the Holyrood regional list, the SNP and Labour were tied on 31% each, again with Don’t Knows removed.
The Tories polled at 14%, the LibDems 8%, and the Greens 11%. Alba polled at 1%, while Reform UK was at 2%.
Dr Fraser McMillan, a researcher with the Scottish Election Study (SES), said: “The data reinforce the impression we’ve been getting for most of this year that Scottish voters are ready to punish the SNP and the Conservatives, with both parties having spent a long time in power at Holyrood and Westminster respectively.
"Labour are currently attracting voters from all the other major parties and picking up around 20% of Yes supporters in Westminster vote intention.”
Professor Ailsa Henderson, the SES principal investigator, added: “There is an incredible amount of volatility in the results, with SNP support down among previous SNP voters and Yes supporters, but equivalent changes at the other end of the partisan spectrum affecting the Conservative Party.
"It also appears that voters are making different calculations for Westminster and Holyrood elections and the two are no longer moving in lockstep.
“What is less clear is whether the Westminster results are changing more because that election is closer – which might mean this is a sign of things to come – or whether it’s a return to two different political worlds.”
