A new subvariant of Covid’s Omicron strain could become dominant in the UK by the end of the month, an expert has warned, as so-called “scrabble” strains continue to spread.
Professor Christina Pagel told The Independent that younger adults who have not been boosted for months could become infected in “significant waves” over winter – which could have a knock-on effect on NHS and school staffing.
The World Health Organisation said this week around 300 subvariants of Omicron were now circulating the globe, with all showing signs of increased transmission and immune evasion.
These include BQ.1 and its offspring, which have been spreading in Europe and the US, as well as XBB, which has been sweeping through Singapore.
A US scientist has dubbed them “scrabble” variants because they contain letters that score highly in the game.
Experts told The Independent earlier this week Omicron subvariants could end up dominating UK Covid cases this winter.
And now Prof Pagel from University College London, who also sits on the Independent Sage group of experts, said one could become dominant within the next 10 days.
“There are definitely a lot of new Omicron subvariants about and there are a couple that are now starting to cause waves,” she told The Independent.
“There is BQ1.1, which is a child of BA.5 we had in July, but it is very different. And it probably will become dominant here by end of the month.”
The BA.5 Omicron subvariant, which led the UK’s fifth wave in the summer, made up most Covid infections in the week up to 2 October, according to the latest data on the pandemic from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
At the same time, its infection survey – published on Friday – said there had been a “sharp increase” in the number of infections belonging to sublineages BQ.1, which itself is a sublineage of BA.5.
Despite signs of immune evasion in the new Omicron subvariants, Prof Pagel said the UK’s efforts to boost vulnerable groups “should blunt the impact quite significantly”.
The recent BA.5 wave in summer should also offer some protection, she said.
Even so, there could be “quite significant waves” in adults aged between 20 and 50 who are not getting Covid boosters – and have not received one in nine months, the UCL operational research professor who focuses on healthcare said.
“We could see quite a lot of disruption in workplaces because of that over the next month or so,” she said.
She predicted this would be down to calling in sick, particularly in exposed professions such as the NHS, teaching or public transport.
Prof Pagel added: “Hopefully [we won’t see] nearly as many deaths or hospitalisations because we have managed to boost a lot of over-50s.”
Earlier this week, a WHO official called for greater Covid surveillance this week as Omicron subvariants continued to spread.
Dr Maria Van Kerkhove from its Health Emergencies Programme said: “There are millions of cases being reported each week but our surveillance has declined, testing has declined, sequencing has declined and that, in turn, has limited our ability as an organisation, with our expert networks around the world, to assess these.”
She asked at a press conference whether there would be a large number of subvariants circulating in the coming months. “That’s happening now,” she replied.
“We need to be prepared for this. Countries need to be in a position to conduct surveillance to deal with increases in cases and perhaps deal with increases in hospitalisations,” she said.
“We don’t see a change in severity yet and our vaccines remain effective, but we have to remain vigilant.”
