New oil and gas fields in the North Sea would produce only enough gas to satisfy the UK’s needs for a few weeks a year, with a minimal impact on energy security, analysis has found.
Fields now under consideration would supply at most an additional three weeks of gas a year to the UK, from 2024 to 2050, even if none of the gas was exported.
In reality, it is more likely that much of the gas would be exported overseas to the highest bidder, as is currently the case with about 60% of the UK’s gas production.
Over the same period, new oilfields would supply at most about five years of oil demand, if none was exported, according to analysis of government data by the campaigning group Uplift. The UK currently exports about 80% of the oil produced in the North Sea.
Ministers are considering scores of potential new licences for exploration or development of new oil and gas fields in the North Sea. A decision on the Rosebank field, one of the largest, is expected imminently.
The government has said the new fields are needed for energy security, at a time of rising gas prices, in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
However, even former ministers have said the new fields would not reduce energy prices in the UK, as they will take years to come onstream, and the fuel produced will be sold to the highest bidder globally, with little impact on UK prices.
Tessa Khan, executive director of Uplift, said the analysis of the fields showed that the government’s energy security claims were unfounded. “It is pure fantasy to think that the North Sea can somehow satisfy the UK’s demand for gas. As this research shows, there just isn’t that much gas left in UK waters. Opening new fields will only give us one extra year’s worth of gas between next year and 2050. Stopping drilling is not ‘turning off the taps’, as some have put it, for the simple fact that the taps aren’t flowing any more, they’re dripping.”
The decision to move ahead with new licences comes despite advice from the International Energy Agency, commissioned by the UK government, that no new exploration and development of oil and gas fields around the world should now take place if the world is to limit global temperature rises to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.
Campaigners calculate that greenhouse gas emissions from the Rosebank field alone would exceed the proportion of the UK’s carbon budget that should be for oil and gas.
Lord Deben, who stepped down as chair of the climate change committee at the end of June, has also strongly advised against the new licences, though he supports maintaining production from existing fields in the short tterm.
Labour has vowed to halt the licensing of new oil and gas fields, if elected. However, if any – such as Rosebank – clear the final regulatory hurdles before the general election, Labour has admitted it will be unable to rescind them.
The energy minister, Grant Shapps, and prime minister, Rishi Sunak, have sought to “weaponise” Labour’s stance by attempting to draw parallels with the Just Stop Oil protests. At the weekend, the Sunday Times reported that the Labour leader, Keir Starmer, had told an internal meeting he “hated treehuggers”, seeing the rows over energy and environment policy as an electoral problem.
Ed Miliband, shadow climate secretary, said the party’s policies to halt new licensing and boost clean energy would improve energy security and lower bills, and accused Shapps and Sunak of “rejecting science in pursuit of a climate culture war”.
He said: “After 13 years of failure, the Conservatives have left our country deeply exposed with families and businesses paying the price. Rather than learning the lesson of this crisis, they risk a perpetual cost of living crisis with their decision to throw billions at a strategy to double down on fossil fuels instead of pursuing the clean energy sprint Britain needs.”
He added: “The only way to deliver lower bills and energy security for our country is to move away from fossil fuels, and on to clean, cheap, homegrown power. That is what Labour’s world-leading mission to make the UK the first major world economy to have a clean power system by 2030 will deliver.”
Uplift’s analysis, based on data from the North Sea Transition Authority, which regulates the industry, found that existing gas fields in the North Sea contain enough gas for just over five years at predicted levels of demand.
Khan said this showed that ministers concerned with energy security should be investing in low-carbon energy, which is cheaper and will not run out. She pointed to research from the UCL Energy Institute, which concluded that with greater policy ambition the UK could be entirely fossil fuel free by 2045. Demand for natural gas could be cut to nearly zero by 2045, with no imports from 2040.
She warned: “The UK will be forced to import more and more expensive gas unless we shift away from fossil fuels to heat our homes. This is a fact that the government is either ignorant of, refusing to confront, or is withholding from the public. The longer they sit on their hands, the longer people and businesses in the UK will be facing sky-high energy bills.”
A spokesperson for the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero said: “We’re building a future diverse energy mix that is cleaner, cheaper and more secure and avoids an increased reliance on foreign oil and gas imports as we move to net zero. The transition to non-fossil forms of energy cannot happen overnight and even when we’re net zero, we will still need some oil and gas, as recognised by the independent climate change committee. Sourcing gas domestically is also better for the environment as it has a lower carbon footprint.”
