New Mexico vs. #13 Colorado State: Keys to a Rams Win, How to Watch, Odds, Prediction
The Rams host their in-state foe
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Can the Rams open conference play strong?
WHO: New Mexico Lobos (12-1) vs. #13 Colorado State Rams (12-1)
WHEN: Tuesday, January 2nd — 8:30 p.m. MST / 7:30 p.m. PST
WHERE: Moby Arena; Fort Collins, CO (8,083)
TV: Fox Sports 1 (Stream FS1 on Fubo and click the link here for a free trial)
SERIES RECORD: This will be the 132nd all time matchup between the two schools. New Mexico leads the all-time series 79-52
LAST MEETING: Colorado State won 92-84 in Fort Collins last season.
ODDS: Colorado State -2.5
A big matchup to open Mountain West play on Tuesday for both Colorado State and New Mexico. The Rams are looking to keep the pressure on everyone else and the Lobos are looking for the road upset in Fort Collins.
Both teams are 12-1 coming into this matchup, however they’ve both gotten there in very different ways. New Mexico is 35th in both KenPom and NET, their SOS is ranked 198th by KenPom and their best win by NET rankings is a 13 point road win over UC Irvine. Colorado State is 30th in KenPom and 15th in NET, their SOS is ranked 52nd by KenPom and their best win by NET rankings is a 21 point neutral site win over, then 8th ranked, Creighton.
New Year, New Games of the Week from @TheAndyKatz 🔥
Start the new year right with these matchups 👀 pic.twitter.com/gGqm6wjKrJ
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) January 1, 2024
Players to Watch
F Jaelen House – New Mexico
Only the third leading scorer for the Lobos, House makes his impact all over the court. House is a hound on defense and will be all over his assignment in Fort Collins. He plays a pressure game on both ends of the floor and is a key reason why the Lobos force as many turnovers as they do.
G Isaiah Stevens – Colorado State
The Rams leader on and off the court. And now the all time leading scorer for Colorado State. As Stevens goes, the Rams go. Yes, the Rams have more depth this year. But Stevens still puts everything into motion. He finds those little spaces and leaves everything on the court.
𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐠𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐮𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝗦𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗞𝗶𝗻𝗴👑🐐#Stalwart x #TeamTogether pic.twitter.com/kAbxG3aADY
— Colorado State Men’s Basketball (@CSUMBasketball) December 30, 2023
Keys to the Game
Offensively
Take care of the basketball. The Rams have the 2nd ranked assist to turnover ratio in the country at 2.1. New Mexico is 15th in the nation in steals with 10 per game and and 16th in the nation with 16.31 turnovers forced per game. The Rams need to take care of the basketball in this one.
Keep moving the ball around. This along with taking care of the basketball will be the main keys for the Rams offense. CSU throws too many skip passes and it can cost them against New Mexico. The Rams need to keep moving the ball, but they can’t be careless with their passes.
Defensively
New Mexico is ranked 26th in the nation in Free Throw attempts per game at 24.5. However, they don’t convert those FTs as much as they should; ranking just 282nd in the nation at 67.08% from the line. The Rams need to play controlled defense and keep their hands up.
The Lobos like to drive the ball as evidenced by their large amount of FTs per game. They don’t shoot many three point shots and they only make them just over a third of the time. The Rams will need to use their length to stay in front of the Lobos, clog the passing lanes, and force New Mexico to shoot from the outside.
Predictions
This is going to be a close one. CSU shoots at a 53.2% clip and the Lobos only allow teams to make shots at a 39.8% clip. The Rams won’t have a full complient of players and that will be the biggest challenge for them. This will be a back and forth battle, but the home court advantage that a loud Moby Arena provides will be the difference maker in the end for the Rams.
Final Score: Colorado State 84, New Mexico 80
